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Predictions graded

Sligo Rovers1Shamrock Rovers2

HT 1–0Fri 3 Jul 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 34%–66%ShotsShots 7–16On targetOn target 3–5CornersCorners 2–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jun 2026, 11:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Back under 2.5 goals and both teams to score ‘no’ in Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers.

The last three H2H league meetings were 1-0, 1-0, and 2-0, Sligo are depleted by loan exits, and Shamrock’s defence concedes just 0.9 goals per game. The 1st half result on Shamrock also offers value at +6 points.

Context

Sligo's official preview confirmed Traore and Blaney's loans expired after the Shelbourne game on 27 June.
- Both players were part of the squad in recent matches, so their absence creates immediate gaps.
- Russell now has less depth to execute his front-foot approach against a strong Shamrock side.
Bradley stated Shamrock had done enough to win and were denied by poor officiating.
- The draw cost them points in a tight title race, adding pressure to respond strongly.
- Shamrock's away form (5W-3D-4L) shows they can channel frustration into results.
Shamrock won 2-0 at Sligo in March 2026, and the other two recent meetings were 1-0 results.
- Both teams scored in only one of the last five H2H encounters across all venues.
- Sligo's home struggles (3W-3D-5L, -7 GD) align with this low-event trend.
Shamrock have 47 points and lead the table, needing wins to secure the title.
- Sligo have 19 points and are in the promotion/relegation playoff spot, just above bottom club Waterford.
- Sligo's poor home form (only 3 wins in 11) adds urgency, but they face the league's best defence.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Shamrock Rovers' superior league position, away form, and recent H2H dominance, combined with Sligo's poor home record and relegation pressure, make an away win highly likely.
- Shamrock Rovers are 1st with 47 pts, Sligo 9th with 20 pts; 27-point gap.
- Shamrock away record: 5W-3D-4L, +4 GD; Sligo home record: 3W-3D-5L, -7 GD.
- Last 5 H2H: Shamrock won 3, Sligo 1, draw 1; Shamrock won last meeting at Sligo 2-0 (Mar 2026).
- Shamrock form last 5: W-D-W-L-W; Sligo form last 5: D-L-L-L-W.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonShamrock RoversEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Sligo's struggles at home and Shamrock's strong away form, the probability of Sligo winning is low, making Draw or Shamrock Rovers a high-confidence outcome.
- Sligo have lost 5 of 11 home games; Shamrock have lost only 4 of 12 away games.
- Shamrock have avoided defeat in 8 of 12 away matches.
- Sligo have failed to win in 8 of 11 home matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Shamrock RoversEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shamrock's strong first-half performance, both in scoring and leading at the break, contrasts with Sligo's poor first-half record, making a Shamrock half-time lead probable.
- Shamrock lead at half-time in 67% of matches; Sligo lead in only 20%.
- Shamrock average 1.0 first-half goals; Sligo average 0.5 first-half goals.
- Sligo trail at half-time in 40% of matches; Shamrock trail in only 27%.
- Last H2H at Sligo: Shamrock led 1-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostShamrock RoversEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shamrock's superior second-half performance and Sligo's tendency to fade after the break give a slight edge, but the low confidence reflects variability in second-half outcomes.
- Shamrock have a +8 second-half goal difference overall; Sligo have -11.
- Shamrock score 0.7 second-half goals on average; Sligo concede 0.9 second-half goals.
- Sligo have lost the second half in 3 of last 5 home games.
- Shamrock have won the second half in 3 of last 5 away games.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableShamrock RoversEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shamrock's tendency to lead at half-time and convert to wins, especially against weaker opposition, makes HT/FT double plausible, though Sligo's occasional resilience tempers probability.
- Shamrock lead at HT in 67% of matches and win 58% overall.
- Sligo trail at HT in 40% and lose 55% overall.
- Last H2H at Sligo: Shamrock led at HT and won FT.
- Shamrock have won 5 of 12 away games; Sligo have lost 5 of 11 home games.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableShamrock Rovers / Shamrock RoversEstimated chance45%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H trend of low-scoring affairs, combined with Sligo's offensive struggles and Shamrock's solid defense, supports under 2.5 goals.
- Last 3 H2H league meetings: 1-0, 1-0, 2-0 (all under 2.5).
- Sligo average 0.9 goals scored, 1.6 conceded overall; at home: 1.0 scored, 1.6 conceded.
- Shamrock average 1.7 scored, 0.9 conceded overall; away: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded.
- Sligo's last 5 home games: 2, 1, 2, 0, 0 goals scored (avg 1.0).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sligo's low scoring output and Shamrock's defensive strength, along with H2H history of at least one team failing to score, make both teams scoring unlikely.
- Both teams scored in only 1 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Sligo failed to score in 3 of last 5 home games.
- Shamrock kept clean sheets in 2 of last 5 away games.
- Sligo average 0.9 goals per game overall; Shamrock concede 0.9 per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Shamrock's away defensive record is decent, Sligo's home scoring inconsistency gives a moderate chance of a clean sheet, but confidence is low due to Shamrock's occasional away concessions.
- Shamrock kept clean sheets in 2 of last 5 away games.
- Sligo failed to score in 3 of last 5 home games.
- Shamrock concede 1.0 goals per away game on average.
- Last H2H at Sligo: Shamrock won 2-0.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSligo Rovers not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first-half scoring, but recent H2H first halves have been tight, and Sligo's home first halves are low-scoring, supporting under 1.5 goals.
- Sligo average 0.5 first-half goals; Shamrock average 1.0 first-half goals.
- Sligo concede 0.7 first-half goals; Shamrock concede 0.3 first-half goals.
- Combined average first-half goals: 1.5, but recent H2H first halves: 1-0, 0-0, 0-0 in last three meetings.
- Sligo's last 5 home first halves: 1, 0, 1, 1, 0 goals (avg 0.6).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 4.5 corners, suggesting a total near 9, but lack of H2H corner data and variability in corner counts make this a low-confidence under 9.5 call.
- Sligo average 4.5 corners per game; Shamrock average 4.6.
- Combined average corners: 9.1, but recent H2H corner data unavailable.
- Sligo's last 5 home corners: 2, 9, 1, 4, 7 (avg 4.6).
- Shamrock's last 5 away corners: 6, 5, 3, 5, 3 (avg 4.4).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 4 cards combined, and Shamrock's away discipline is slightly worse, but lack of H2H card data and low card averages in some games reduce confidence.
- Sligo average 1.6 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards; Shamrock average 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards.
- Combined average cards: 4.6, but recent H2H card data unavailable.
- Sligo's last 5 home cards: 3, 1, 1, 4, 1 (avg 2.0).
- Shamrock's last 5 away cards: 2, 2, 4, 0, 4 (avg 2.4).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W1-2Shamrock RoversvSligo RoversMay 22, 2026PRE

L0-2Sligo RoversvShamrock RoversMar 13, 2026PRE

W1-2Shamrock RoversvSligo RoversNov 1, 2025PRE

D2-2Sligo RoversvShamrock RoversJul 5, 2025PRE

L2-0Shamrock RoversvSligo RoversMay 5, 2025PRE

Shamrock Rovers: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier Division 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Sligo Rovers Premier Division (Relegation)	22	5	5	12	17-35	20	DLLLW
1	Shamrock Rovers Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)	24	14	5	5	38-21	47	WDWLW

27pt gap between teamsShamrock Rovers leads the leagueSligo Rovers in relegation zone

Recent Form

Sligo Rovers

D2-2ShelbourneJun 27PRE

L0-2St Patrick's Athl.Jun 19PRE

L0-4WaterfordJun 12PRE

L1-3BohemiansMay 29PRE

W2-1Shamrock RoversMay 22PRE

L1-4Galway UnitedMay 16PRE

D0-0ShelbourneMay 8PRE

D1-1St Patrick's Athl.May 4PRE

L0-1Drogheda UnitedMay 1PRE

W2-0DundalkApr 25PRE

W2-0WaterfordApr 18PRE

W2-1BohemiansApr 10PRE

D0-0Derry CityApr 6PRE

L1-4St Patrick's Athl.Apr 3PRE

L0-1ShelbourneMar 21PRE

Shamrock Rovers

W3-1Galway UnitedJun 26PRE

D1-1Derry CityJun 22PRE

W2-0WaterfordJun 19PRE

L1-2ShelbourneJun 12PRE

W1-0St Patrick's Athl.May 29PRE

W2-1BohemiansMay 25PRE

L1-2Sligo RoversMay 22PRE

L0-1DundalkMay 15PRE

W3-1Galway UnitedMay 8PRE

W4-1Drogheda UnitedMay 4PRE

W1-0WaterfordMay 1PRE

L0-1Derry CityApr 24PRE

W2-1BohemiansApr 17PRE

W1-0St Patrick's Athl.Apr 10PRE

W3-2ShelbourneApr 6PRE

Squad & Injuries

Sligo Rovers

29 available

Attackers5

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Shamrock Rovers

30 available

Attackers10

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Shamrock Rovers

Shamrock Rovers at half-time / Shamrock Rovers at full-time

Under 2.5

No

Shamrock Rovers

Draw or Shamrock Rovers

Under 1.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Sligo Rovers

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sligo Rovers

Shamrock Rovers

Squad & Injuries

Sligo Rovers

Shamrock Rovers