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Predictions graded

Raja Casablanca2Hassania Agadir0

HT 0–0Thu 2 Jul 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 10–10On targetOn target 4–7CornersCorners 4–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Jul 2026, 08:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Raja Casablanca are strong favorites at home against a struggling Hassania Agadir, with recent H2Hs (1-0, 1-0, 3-1) and a tight CAF chase under a new coach.

The best betting value is on second-half goals over 0.5 at 1.43 (85% estimated probability vs. 69.9% implied), while the home win and under 2.5 goals offer minimal or no edge. Avoid half-time/full-time Raja/Raja and draw no bet due to poor value.

Context

Nabi was announced as head coach on 13 June 2026, just 19 days before this match.
- Previous coach Fadlu Davids was sacked on 11 June after a 2-0 loss to Kawkab Marrakech.
- Raja are 3rd, 1 point behind 2nd and level on points with 4th, so the new coach must deliver immediate results.
Amir Abdou departed for Burkina Faso on 1 March, and Et-Tair was appointed on 10 March.
- Hassania have won only 3 of 14 away matches this season, with 7 losses.
- In the latest table snapshot (23 June), Hassania were 11th with 30 points, 6 above the play-off place.
Last three league H2Hs: 1-0 (Mar 2026), 1-0 (Apr 2025), 3-1 (Dec 2024), all Raja wins.
- Hassania scored only once in those three matches and failed to score in the last two.
- Raja's home defensive record this season: only 6 goals conceded in 14 matches.
Raja are 3rd, 1 point behind RS Berkane in 2nd (last CAF CL spot) and level with MAS Fez on head-to-head.
- Botola tie-break rules use head-to-head goal difference, so scoreline control matters.
- Raja's home record: 8W-4D-2L, with only 6 goals conceded in 14 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Raja Casablanca

1.41fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 71%

0.0ppshort

Raja's dominant home form (8W-4D-2L) and three straight league H2H wins over Hassania, who struggle away (3W-4D-7L), make them clear favourites.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Raja Casablanca or Draw

1.07fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 93%

0.0ppshort

Combining Raja's fortress-like home record with Hassania's poor away form makes a home win or draw highly probable, but the market has priced this in.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Raja's home clean sheet rate (57%) and Hassania's historical scoring struggles in this fixture (1 goal in last 3 H2Hs) make BTTS No likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Raja's strong home form, dominant recent H2H, and high-stakes CAF chase under a new coach give them a clear edge over a Hassania side that struggles away and is under relegation pressure.
- Raja have won the last 3 league H2Hs (1-0, 1-0, 3-1), conceding only once across those matches.
- Raja home record this season: 8W-4D-2L, 18GF-6GA in 14 matches; Hassania away record: 3W-4D-7L, 13GF-21GA.
- Raja are 4th with 50 pts, chasing a CAF CL spot; Hassania are 11th with 32 pts, only 6 pts above relegation playoff zone.
- Raja have a fresh coaching change (Nasreddine Nabi appointed 13 June) adding urgency; Hassania changed coach in March.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRaja CasablancaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Raja's fortress-like home record with Hassania's poor away form and Raja's historical dominance in this fixture makes a home win or draw highly probable.
- Raja have lost only 2 of 14 home matches this season (8W-4D-2L).
- Hassania have won only 3 of 14 away matches, with 7 losses.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings across all competitions, Raja have won 4 and drawn 0, with the only non-win being a cup match in 2024.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRaja Casablanca or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Raja's tendency to start strong at home, combined with Hassania's poor first-half record, gives the hosts a good chance to lead at the break.
- Raja led at halftime in 53% of their last 15 matches; Hassania led at halftime in only 20% of theirs.
- Raja's first-half goal difference at home: 0.8 scored vs 0.3 conceded on average in last 15.
- In the last 3 league H2Hs, Raja led at halftime in one (3-1 win) and the other two were 0-0 at half.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostRaja CasablancaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A pattern of tight first halves followed by Raja's second-half superiority in this fixture suggests a possible Draw/Raja HT/FT double, though confidence is low due to the specific sequence.
- Raja have drawn at halftime in 40% of their last 15 matches (6 of 15) and won the match in 53% (8 of 15).
- Hassania have drawn at halftime in 47% of their last 15 (7 of 15) and lost the match in 47% (7 of 15).
- In the last 3 league H2Hs, two were 0-0 at halftime, with Raja winning both 1-0.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Raja CasablancaEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Raja's tight home defense (only 6 conceded in 14 games) and the low-scoring pattern in recent H2Hs suggest a controlled, low-goal affair, despite Hassania's occasional away scoring.
- Raja's last 5 home matches: 2-1, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0, 1-0 (avg total goals 1.8).
- Hassania's last 5 away matches: 0-0, 1-2, 1-0, 2-3, 2-2 (avg total goals 2.6, but 3 of 5 had under 2.5).
- Last 3 league H2Hs: 1-0, 1-0, 3-1 (all under 2.5 except the 3-1).
- Raja home goals against average: 0.43 per game; Hassania away goals for average: 0.93 per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Raja's defensive solidity at home and Hassania's struggles to score against them historically make a clean sheet for the hosts likely.
- Raja have kept a clean sheet in 8 of 14 home matches this season.
- Hassania have failed to score in 5 of 14 away matches.
- In the last 3 league H2Hs, Hassania scored only once (a 3-1 loss) and were shut out in the other two.
- Raja's home goals conceded average is 0.43; Hassania's away goals scored average is 0.93.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Raja's strong home defense and Hassania's historical difficulty scoring in this fixture support a home clean sheet.
- Raja have kept a clean sheet in 57% of home matches this season (8 of 14).
- Hassania have been shut out in 36% of away matches (5 of 14).
- In the last 3 league H2Hs, Raja kept 2 clean sheets against Hassania.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHassania Agadir not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to have low-scoring first halves, and recent H2Hs have been tight early, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Raja's last 15 matches: first-half goals average 1.1 total (0.8 for, 0.3 against).
- Hassania's last 15 matches: first-half goals average 1.0 total (0.5 for, 0.5 against).
- In the last 3 league H2Hs, first-half total goals were 0, 0, and 1.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently score or concede after halftime, and H2H history shows second-half action, making over 0.5 second-half goals highly probable.
- Raja's last 15 matches: second-half goals in 13 of 15 (87%).
- Hassania's last 15 matches: second-half goals in 12 of 15 (80%).
- In the last 3 league H2Hs, second-half goals occurred in all three (1, 1, and 4 goals).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance85%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive stakes and historical card counts in this fixture suggest a moderately card-heavy game, though limited recent card data reduces confidence.
- Raja average 2.0 yellow cards per match in their last 15; Hassania average 2.4.
- In the last 5 H2Hs where card data is available, total cards were 4, 5, 4, 3, and 6 (avg 4.4).
- Both teams are in high-stakes situations (Raja chasing CAF spot, Hassania avoiding relegation), which can increase intensity.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

5W · 0D · 0W

W0-1Hassania AgadirvRaja CasablancaMar 1, 2026BOT

W1-0Raja CasablancavHassania AgadirApr 23, 2025BOT

W1-3Hassania AgadirvRaja CasablancaDec 1, 2024BOT

W2-4Hassania AgadirvRaja CasablancaMay 11, 2024CUP

W2-0Raja CasablancavHassania AgadirFeb 20, 2024BOT

Raja Casablanca unbeaten in 5 meetingsRaja Casablanca: 3 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Botola Pro 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Raja Casablanca	28	14	8	6	35-19	50	DLWWD
11	Hassania Agadir	28	8	8	12	26-36	32	DDWLW

18pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Raja Casablanca

D1-1Ittihad TangerJun 28BOT

L1-2Yacoub El MansourJun 25BOT

W2-1CODM MeknèsJun 21BOT

W4-3CR Khemis ZemamraJun 17BOT

D1-1UTS RabatJun 14BOT

L0-2Kawkab MarrakechJun 9BOT

L0-1Renaissance BerkaneJun 3BOT

W1-0Olympique DcheïraMay 24BOT

W2-0El MassiraMay 16CUP

L0-1Wydad ACMay 9BOT

W2-0Maghreb FèsMay 6BOT

W1-0Difaa EL JadidaMay 3BOT

L1-2FAR RabatApr 30BOT

W4-1FUS RabatApr 26BOT

W2-0Olympique SafiMar 7BOT

Hassania Agadir

D1-1CR Khemis ZemamraJun 28BOT

D0-0CODM MeknèsJun 25BOT

W1-0UTS RabatJun 21BOT

L1-2Yacoub El MansourJun 18BOT

W1-0Renaissance BerkaneJun 14BOT

W1-0Olympique DcheïraJun 8BOT

D0-0FUS RabatJun 4BOT

L2-3Wydad ACMay 23BOT

L2-3FAR RabatMay 10BOT

D2-2Difaa EL JadidaMay 7BOT

W2-1Olympique SafiMay 4BOT

L0-4Maghreb FèsApr 29BOT

D1-1Ittihad TangerApr 25BOT

L1-2Kawkab MarrakechMar 7BOT

L1-2Renaissance BerkaneMar 4BOT

Squad & Injuries

Raja Casablanca

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Hassania Agadir

34 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Over 0.5

Raja Casablanca

Raja Casablanca or Draw

Raja Casablanca

No

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Raja Casablanca, draw no bet

Hassania Agadir not to score

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Raja Casablanca

Hassania Agadir

Squad & Injuries

Raja Casablanca

Hassania Agadir