Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Cuiaba MT1America MG0

HT 0–0Thu 2 Jul 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 1–1On targetOn target 0–0CornersCorners 5–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jun 2026, 13:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Cuiabá are strong favorites against a crisis-hit América-MG, but the home win odds are too short for value.

Instead, look to the first-half under 0.5 goals at 2.30 or the first-half draw at 2.00, where our estimates give a clear edge. The second-half over 0.5 goals at 1.48 is also a solid play given both teams’ post-break trends.

Context

Roger Silva was dismissed on May 30 after a 3-0 defeat to Juventude.
- Umberto Louzer was appointed on May 31, becoming the third coach since April.
- Frequent coaching changes often disrupt tactical preparation and squad morale.
Val Soares filed for indirect termination over unpaid wages.
- Public wage disputes can undermine team unity and focus.
- This adds to the instability caused by the coaching changes.
Cuiabá's last match was a home draw against Londrina on June 25.
- América-MG played away at Operário-PR on June 27.
- The visitors face a tighter turnaround and a long trip to Cuiabá.
Last five H2H results: 1-1, 3-1, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1 in Cuiabá's favor.
- Cuiabá have scored at least once in all five encounters.
- América-MG have not beaten Cuiabá in this recent span.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cuiabá's strong H2H record and América-MG's poor form, combined with the hosts' playoff motivation, give them a clear edge.
- Cuiabá are unbeaten in the last 5 H2H meetings (3W 2D), scoring in all five.
- América-MG have lost 11 of 15 league matches this season and sit bottom with 6 points.
- Cuiabá's last 5 league matches: 3W 2D, while América-MG's last 5: 1W 4L.
- América-MG have 0 wins in 7 home matches, and away they have 1 win in 8, conceding 14 goals.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCuiaba MTEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuiabá's home resilience and América-MG's travel struggles, reinforced by H2H dominance, make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Cuiabá have lost only 1 of their last 8 home matches (2W 5D 1L).
- América-MG have lost 5 of 8 away matches, with only 1 win.
- H2H: Cuiabá have not lost to América-MG in the last 5 meetings.
- América-MG have the worst away record in the league (1W 2D 5L).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCuiaba MT or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of drawing at half-time, especially in Cuiabá's recent home games, making a level first half the most probable outcome.
- Cuiabá have been drawing at half-time in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- América-MG have been drawing at half-time in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Cuiabá's first-half record: 13% leading, 27% trailing, 60% drawing.
- América-MG's first-half record: 27% leading, 27% trailing, 46% drawing.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cuiabá's tendency to push late at home, combined with América-MG's second-half collapses on the road, gives the hosts an edge after the break.
- Cuiabá have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- América-MG have lost the second half in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- Cuiabá's second-half goal difference at home: +3.
- América-MG's second-half goal difference away: -5.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableCuiaba MTEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by a Cuiabá breakthrough is a plausible scenario given both teams' half-time trends and América-MG's second-half fragility.
- Cuiabá have drawn at half-time and won at full-time in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- América-MG have drawn at half-time and lost at full-time in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- Cuiabá's pattern: 60% of home matches are draws at HT, with 25% turning into wins.
- América-MG's away pattern: 37.5% draws at HT, with 62.5% turning into losses.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Cuiaba MTEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuiabá's low-scoring home trend and América-MG's attacking struggles on the road point to a tight, low-scoring affair.
- Cuiabá's last 15 matches average 1.9 total goals (0.9 scored, 1.0 conceded).
- América-MG's last 15 matches average 2.6 total goals, but they have failed to score in 5 of their last 8 away games.
- Cuiabá's home matches this season: 7 of 8 have had under 2.5 goals.
- H2H: 3 of the last 5 meetings had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
América-MG's away scoring drought and Cuiabá's solid home defense suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- América-MG have failed to score in 5 of their last 8 away matches.
- Cuiabá have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 home matches.
- Cuiabá's home goals conceded average is 0.75 per game.
- América-MG have scored only 6 goals in 8 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cuiabá's defensive solidity at home and América-MG's away scoring woes make a home clean sheet a plausible outcome.
- Cuiabá have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 home matches.
- América-MG have failed to score in 5 of their last 8 away matches.
- Cuiabá's home goals conceded average is 0.75 per game.
- América-MG average 0.75 goals scored away from home.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAmerica MG not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with Cuiabá's recent home first halves particularly barren, making a goalless first half likely.
- Cuiabá average 0.4 first-half goals scored, América-MG average 0.6.
- Cuiabá's last 5 home matches: 4 had 0 first-half goals.
- América-MG's last 5 away matches: 3 had 0 first-half goals.
- H2H: 2 of the last 5 meetings were 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams see more action after the break, with Cuiabá's home second halves consistently producing goals, making over 0.5 second-half goals highly likely.
- Cuiabá's last 5 home matches: all had at least 1 second-half goal.
- América-MG's last 5 away matches: 4 had at least 1 second-half goal.
- Cuiabá score 60% of their goals in the second half.
- América-MG concede 65% of their goals in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and recent home/away trends suggest a slight lean towards a higher corner count.
- Cuiabá average 5.5 corners per game, América-MG average 5.0.
- Cuiabá's last 5 home matches: 3 had over 9.5 corners.
- América-MG's last 5 away matches: 3 had over 9.5 corners.
- H2H: 2 of the last 5 meetings had over 9.5 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently pick up cards, and recent home/away trends strongly support a card-heavy match.
- Cuiabá average 2.3 yellow cards per game, América-MG average 2.1.
- Cuiabá's last 5 home matches: 4 had over 4.5 cards.
- América-MG's last 5 away matches: 4 had over 4.5 cards.
- H2H: 3 of the last 5 meetings had over 4.5 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D1-1America MineirovCuiabaNov 16, 2025SER

L3-1CuiabavAmerica MineiroJul 24, 2025SER

D2-2CuiabavAmerica MineiroSep 15, 2023SA

W1-2America MineirovCuiabaMay 7, 2023SA

L2-1CuiabavAmerica MineiroSep 29, 2022SA

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Cuiaba MT	15	4	8	3	11-9	20	DLWWW
20	America MG Relegation	15	1	3	11	10-26	6	LLWLL

14pt gap between teamsAmerica MG in relegation zone

Recent Form

Cuiaba MT

D2-2LondrinaJun 25SER

L0-1AvaiJun 21SER

W1-0Vila NovaJun 14SER

W2-1Ponte PretaJun 9SER

W2-0CRBMay 31SER

L0-1Nautico RecifeMay 22SER

D0-0NovorizontinoMay 16SER

D0-0Athletic ClubMay 9SER

D1-1CriciumaMay 2SER

L0-4AnápolisApr 29COP

D1-1Botafogo SPApr 23SER

W2-0GoiasApr 19SER

L2-3Porto VitóriaApr 15COP

D0-0Operario-PRApr 12SER

L0-1Atletico GoianienseApr 7COP

America MG

L0-1Operario-PRJun 27SER

L0-1CriciumaJun 23SER

W3-0Fortaleza ECJun 16SER

L1-2Atletico GoianienseJun 8SER

L0-3JuventudeMay 30SER

L1-2Vila NovaMay 24SER

D1-1São BernardoMay 16SER

L0-4Nautico RecifeMay 10SER

W3-2CianorteMay 7COP

L1-2CRBMay 3SER

L1-2Chapecoense-scApr 29COP

L0-1Ponte PretaApr 24SER

D0-0Sport RecifeApr 18SER

W2-1Sampaio Corrêa RJApr 15COP

L0-3NovorizontinoApr 12SER

Squad & Injuries

Cuiaba MT

35 available

Attackers9

Midfielders11

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

America MG

47 available

Attackers10

Midfielders13

Defenders19

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 0.5

Over 0.5

Cuiaba MT or Draw

Cuiaba MT

Under 2.5

No

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Cuiaba MT or Draw

No

Over 4.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Cuiaba MT

America MG

Squad & Injuries

Cuiaba MT

America MG