Ettan - NorraFull time

Predictions graded

Umea FC1FC Jarfalla3

HT 1–1Sun 28 Jun 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Jun 2026, 23:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Umea FC's returning key players and home advantage make them favorites, but the best value lies in the double chance (Umea or Draw) at around 1.36, which closely matches our 75% probability estimate.

Jarfalla's midweek cup fatigue and poor away form further support this, while both teams to score is likely but offers no betting edge at current odds.

Context

On 7 June, Umea listed Lindmark, Bawa, and Johansson as absent; by 12 June, the club confirmed their return.
- Lindmark and Bawa started against Piteå on 12 June, Bawa scored, and Umea won 2-0 with a clean sheet.
- The trio's availability transforms Umea's spine, which had struggled for consistency earlier in the season.
Jarfalla's official site listed a cup match against Arlanda on 23 June, five days before the Umea fixture.
- The match was at home, but the travel to Umea adds to the physical load.
- Jarfalla's away record is already poor (1 win in 7), and fatigue may worsen their second-half performance.
Eriksson was missing on 12 June, and Pihlblad started against Piteå, keeping a clean sheet.
- Pihlblad also started the next match against Enköping, showing the team has adjusted.
- Umea's defense has not been weakened by the change, as the clean sheet suggests.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Umea FC or Draw

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Umea are solid in the first half at home, rarely trailing, while Jarfalla often start slowly on the road, making a home lead or draw at the break highly probable.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Jarfalla consistently score on the road but also concede regularly, while Umea's home defense is not watertight, making both teams scoring a strong probability.

Total Goals AwaywonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 82%

−7.0ppshort

Jarfalla's consistent away scoring record and Umea's home defensive vulnerabilities make it highly probable that the visitors will find the net at least once.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to be involved in first-half action, with Jarfalla's high first-half goal rate and Umea's home matches rarely being goalless at the break, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Umea's home advantage and recent squad strengthening with Lindmark, Bawa, and Johansson returning give them a structural edge, while Jarfalla's poor away form and midweek cup fatigue weaken their chances.
- Umea FC home record: 2W-2D-2L, goals 8:8 in 6 matches
- FC Jarfalla away record: 1W-3D-3L, goals 10:13 in 7 matches
- Umea FC last 5 matches: 1W-2D-2L, including a 2-0 win vs Piteå after key returns
- FC Jarfalla last 5 matches: 1W-1D-3L, conceded 15 goals in that span
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostUmea FCEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Umea are hard to beat at home with only 2 losses, and Jarfalla's away struggles (1 win in 7) combined with fatigue from a midweek cup match make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Umea FC home record: 2W-2D-2L, only 2 losses in 6 home games
- FC Jarfalla away record: 1W-3D-3L, only 1 win in 7 away games
- Umea FC have drawn 4 of 13 league matches this season
- FC Jarfalla have lost 7 of 13 league matches, with 3 draws
BetBugs · Double ChancelostUmea FC or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Umea's recent strong first-half performance at home and Jarfalla's occasional slow starts on the road give a slight edge to the hosts, but the low confidence reflects the variability in first-half outcomes.
- Umea FC have led at half-time in 2 of 6 home matches
- FC Jarfalla have trailed at half-time in 3 of 7 away matches
- Umea FC's last home match: led 2-0 at half-time vs Piteå
- FC Jarfalla's last 5 matches: trailed at half-time in 2
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostUmea FCEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Umea's home advantage and fresher legs, combined with Jarfalla's tendency to fade in second halves away from home, make the hosts likely to edge the second period.
- Umea FC have won the second half in 3 of 6 home matches
- FC Jarfalla have lost the second half in 4 of 7 away matches
- Umea FC's improved squad depth with returning players should help in later stages
- FC Jarfalla's midweek cup match may cause second-half fatigue
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableUmea FCEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Umea have shown they can control a match from start to finish at home, the low probability reflects the general difficulty of predicting a half-time/full-time double, even with favorable conditions.
- Umea FC have led at half-time and won the match in 2 of 6 home games
- FC Jarfalla have trailed at half-time and lost the match in 2 of 7 away games
- Umea FC's last home match: led at half-time and won 2-0
- FC Jarfalla's last away match: trailed at half-time and lost 1-3
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableUmea FC / Umea FCEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Winning both halves is rare, and while Umea have the potential against a fatigued Jarfalla side, the low probability acknowledges the difficulty of sustaining dominance for 90 minutes.
- Umea FC have won both halves in 1 of 6 home matches
- FC Jarfalla have lost both halves in 2 of 7 away matches
- Umea FC's 2-0 win vs Piteå: won first half 2-0, second half 0-0 (did not win both halves)
- FC Jarfalla's 1-6 loss vs Stocksund: lost both halves
BetBugs · Win Both Halvesnot gradableYesEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Umea are solid in the first half at home, rarely trailing, while Jarfalla often start slowly on the road, making a home lead or draw at the break highly probable.
- Umea FC have led or drawn at half-time in 5 of 6 home matches
- FC Jarfalla have trailed at half-time in 3 of 7 away matches
- Umea FC's last 5 home matches: only 1 half-time deficit
- FC Jarfalla's last 5 away matches: 2 half-time deficits
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostUmea FC or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, especially Jarfalla's leaky defense on the road, and Umea's improved attack with returning players should contribute to a match with at least 3 goals.
- Umea FC home matches average 2.67 total goals (8 scored, 8 conceded in 6 games)
- FC Jarfalla away matches average 3.29 total goals (10 scored, 13 conceded in 7 games)
- FC Jarfalla's last 5 matches: 4 had over 2.5 goals
- Umea FC's last 5 matches: 3 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jarfalla consistently score on the road but also concede regularly, while Umea's home defense is not watertight, making both teams scoring a strong probability.
- Umea FC have scored in 5 of their last 6 home matches
- FC Jarfalla have scored in 6 of their 7 away matches this season
- FC Jarfalla have conceded in 6 of their 7 away matches
- Umea FC have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 6 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With Lindmark and Bawa back, Umea's attack has improved, and against a Jarfalla defense that concedes nearly 2 goals per away game, Umea are likely to score at least twice.
- Umea FC average 1.33 goals per home match this season
- Umea FC have scored 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 home matches
- FC Jarfalla concede 1.86 goals per away match on average
- Umea FC scored 2 goals in their last home match after key players returned
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostUmea FC over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jarfalla's consistent away scoring record and Umea's home defensive vulnerabilities make it highly probable that the visitors will find the net at least once.
- FC Jarfalla have scored in 6 of 7 away matches this season
- FC Jarfalla average 1.43 goals per away match
- Umea FC have conceded in 5 of 6 home matches this season
- FC Jarfalla failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 league matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFC Jarfalla over 0.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half action, with Jarfalla's high first-half goal rate and Umea's home matches rarely being goalless at the break, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Umea FC average 0.5 first-half goals at home, with 4 of 6 home matches having a first-half goal
- FC Jarfalla average 0.9 first-half goals overall, with first-half goals in 5 of last 6 matches
- FC Jarfalla concede 0.9 first-half goals on average
- Umea FC have scored or conceded a first-half goal in 5 of 6 home matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Matches involving these teams often open up in the second half, especially with Jarfalla's defensive fatigue and Umea's tendency to push for a result at home, leading to multiple second-half goals.
- Umea FC home matches average 2.17 second-half goals (based on total goals minus first-half goals)
- FC Jarfalla away matches average 2.0 second-half goals
- FC Jarfalla's last 5 matches: 4 had over 1.5 second-half goals
- Umea FC's last 5 matches: 3 had over 1.5 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While both teams have shown they can score early, the low frequency of both teams scoring in the first half in their recent matches makes this a speculative but possible outcome.
- Umea FC home matches: both teams scored in first half in 2 of 6
- FC Jarfalla away matches: both teams scored in first half in 3 of 7
- FC Jarfalla's last 5 matches: both teams scored in first half in 2
- Umea FC's last 5 matches: both teams scored in first half in 1
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonYesEstimated chance30%

League Table

Ettan - Norra 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Umea FC	13	4	4	5	19-21	16	LWDDL
12	FC Jarfalla	13	3	3	7	18-26	12	DLLLW

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Umea FC

L1-3EnköpingJun 21ETT

W2-0PiteåJun 12ETT

D1-1SollentunaJun 7ETT

D2-2StocksundMay 31ETT

L0-2IF KarlstadMay 24ETT

D1-1FBK KarlstadMay 17ETT

W5-1Assyriska FFMay 14ETT

D2-2Gefle IFMay 9ETT

W2-1KarlbergMay 3ETT

L0-3Stockholm InternazionaleApr 26ETT

L1-3VasalundApr 19ETT

L0-1ArlandaApr 12ETT

W2-1Hammarby TalangApr 6ETT

L0-1PiteåMar 28FRI

W1-0Ostersunds FKMar 21FRI

FC Jarfalla

L0-2ArlandaJun 23SVE

D1-1Hammarby TalangJun 18ETT

L2-3ArlandaJun 13ETT

L1-6StocksundJun 8ETT

L1-3VasalundJun 3ETT

W4-0Gefle IFMay 23ETT

W3-1KarlbergMay 16ETT

L0-3EnköpingMay 13ETT

L0-2FBK KarlstadMay 9ETT

D3-3Assyriska FFMay 3ETT

W1-0PiteåApr 26ETT

L1-2IF KarlstadApr 18ETT

L0-1SollentunaApr 11ETT

D1-1AFC EskilstunaApr 4ETT

D2-2EnköpingMar 28FRI

Squad & Injuries

Umea FC

25 available

Attackers7

Midfielders7

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

FC Jarfalla

25 available

Attackers7

Midfielders6

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3