Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Juventude2Ceara0

HT 2–0Sun 28 Jun 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–275%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Jun 2026, 18:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Juventude’s rock-solid home defense (1 goal conceded in 7 games) meets a Ceará side in coaching flux and with a poor away record, making a low-scoring affair highly probable.

The best value is on under 2.5 goals and first-half under 0.5 goals, where our estimates far exceed the market’s implied probabilities. Avoid betting on a Juventude win or Ceará to score, as the odds offer no edge.

Context

Mozart was fired after the 31 May loss to Operário-PR; Ricardinho is now listed as coach on the club's official site.
- On 17 June, Ceará received a FIFA transfer-ban notice, resolved the same day, but it added administrative distraction.
- Gustavo Prado left the club on 18 June, and Lucas Lima's contract rescission was advanced.
In 7 home league matches, Juventude have conceded 1 goal and scored 9.
- They have kept clean sheets in 6 of those 7 home games.
- Recent home wins include 3-0 vs Ponte Preta and 1-0 vs Londrina.
Ceará have never beaten Juventude away from home in their history.
- The last two H2Hs at Juventude: 2-1 (2025) and 1-0 (2023) home wins.
- Overall H2H at this venue: 2 Juventude wins, 0 draws, 0 Ceará wins in recent meetings.
CBF's 2026 rules: top 2 promoted directly, 3rd–6th enter playoffs.
- Juventude had 22 points after their last match, placing them in the playoff zone.
- A home win would strengthen their position in a tight upper-mid-table cluster.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Juventude's strong home defense (1 goal conceded in 7 games) and Ceara's poor away form, combined with a historical H2H edge at this venue, make a home win the most likely single outcome.
- Juventude home record this season: 4W-2D-1L, 9 goals scored, 1 conceded in 7 matches.
- Ceara away record: 1W-3D-2L, 5 scored, 6 conceded in 6 matches.
- Last 5 H2H: Juventude won both home meetings (2-1 in 2025, 1-0 in 2023).
- Juventude last 5 overall: 3W-1D-1L, including 3-0 and 1-0 home wins.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJuventudeEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude are very hard to beat at home, and Ceara rarely win on the road; the double chance heavily favors the home side avoiding defeat.
- Juventude home: only 1 loss in 7 (vs Sport Recife 0-1).
- Ceara away: only 1 win in 6, with 3 draws.
- H2H at Juventude: 2 home wins in last 2 meetings.
- Juventude have lost only 1 of last 5 home matches across all comps.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonJuventude or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of halftime draws in both teams' recent records and H2H suggests a stalemate at the break is the most probable outcome.
- Juventude home: led at halftime in 27% of matches, trailed in 27%.
- Ceara away: led at halftime in 27% of matches, trailed in 27%.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws at halftime.
- Juventude last 5 home: 2 draws, 2 wins, 1 loss at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring profiles in their respective home/away splits, and Juventude's defensive solidity at home strongly points to a low total.
- Juventude home: 9 goals in 7 games (1.29 per game), 1 conceded total.
- Ceara away: 5 goals in 6 games (0.83 per game), 6 conceded.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
- Juventude last 5 home: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's exceptional home defense (1 goal conceded in 7) makes it likely they keep a clean sheet or Ceara fail to score, so both teams scoring is unlikely.
- Juventude home: kept 6 clean sheets in 7 games.
- Ceara away: failed to score in 2 of 6, scored exactly 1 in other 4.
- Last 2 H2H at Juventude: Ceara scored 1 and 0 goals.
- Juventude overall: 8 goals conceded in 14 games (best defense in league).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's home defensive record is outstanding, and while Ceara occasionally score away, the probability of a Juventude clean sheet is high given the context.
- Juventude home: 6 clean sheets in 7 games.
- Ceara away: scored in 4 of 6, but only 5 total goals.
- Juventude last 5 home: 4 clean sheets.
- Ceara last 5 away: scored in 3 of 5, but only 3 goals total.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCeara not to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, and the H2H pattern supports a goalless first half.
- Juventude home first half: 0.4 goals scored, 0.5 conceded on average.
- Ceara away first half: 0.7 scored, 0.5 conceded on average.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 were 0-0 at halftime.
- Juventude last 5 home: 3 of 5 had 0 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Matches involving these teams tend to open up after halftime, with a strong pattern of at least one goal in the second period.
- Juventude home: 7 of 7 games had a second-half goal (either team).
- Ceara away: 5 of 6 games had a second-half goal.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 had a second-half goal.
- Juventude last 5 home: all 5 had a second-half goal.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance68%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages and recent H2H data suggest a total around 8-9, making under 9.5 slightly more likely, though confidence is low due to variability.
- Juventude home corners: average 4.2 per game, concede 4.2.
- Ceara away corners: average 5.1 per game, concede 5.1.
- Last 5 H2H: corner counts of 7, 5, 11, 8, 9 (avg 8.0).
- Juventude last 5 home: total corners averaged 8.2.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average moderate shots on target, and recent meetings have hovered around the 8.5 line, with a slight lean to the under.
- Juventude home shots on target: 4.3 per game, concede 3.7.
- Ceara away shots on target: 4.3 per game, concede 4.3.
- Last 5 H2H: shots on target totals of 8, 7, 9, 6, 10 (avg 8.0).
- Juventude last 5 home: total shots on target averaged 7.6.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 1W

W0-1CearavJuventudeAug 30, 2025SA

W2-1JuventudevCearaApr 12, 2025SA

W1-3CearavJuventudeNov 25, 2023SER

W1-0JuventudevCearaJul 23, 2023SER

L4-1CearavJuventudeNov 13, 2022SA

Juventude: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Juventude Promotion Play-offs	14	6	4	4	14-8	22	WWLWL
14	Ceara	14	4	5	5	15-16	17	LDWLL

5pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Juventude

W1-0São BernardoJun 21SER

W3-0Ponte PretaJun 14SER

L1-2Operario-PRJun 5SER

W3-0America MineiroMay 30SER

L0-1Sport RecifeMay 23SER

D1-1Athletic ClubMay 17SER

W3-1Sao PauloMay 13COP

D0-0CriciumaMay 10SER

W2-1TombenseMay 7COP

D0-0Atletico GoianienseMay 3SER

L2-3CianorteApr 30COP

W1-0LondrinaApr 26SER

L0-1Sao PauloApr 21COP

W1-0CRBApr 18SER

D0-0Chapecoense-scApr 16COP

Ceara

L0-1Botafogo SPJun 20SER

D1-1CriciumaJun 16SER

W2-1AvaiJun 10SER

L1-2Operario-PRMay 31SER

L1-2NovorizontinoMay 23SER

W2-1Fortaleza ECMay 17SER

L0-1Atletico GoianienseMay 9SER

L0-1VitoriaMay 7COP

L0-2Sport RecifeMay 3SER

W3-1MaranhãoApr 30COP

D3-3Vila NovaApr 26SER

L1-2Atletico-MGApr 23COP

D0-0LondrinaApr 19SER

W4-1JacuipenseApr 15COP

W1-0Nautico RecifeApr 11SER

Squad & Injuries

Juventude

56 available

Attackers11

Midfielders19

Defenders21

Goalkeeper5

Ceara

44 available

Attackers11

Midfielders14

Defenders14

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

No

Under 0.5

Juventude or Draw

Juventude

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Juventude

Ceara

Squad & Injuries

Juventude

Ceara