Botola ProFull time

Predictions graded

IR Tanger1Raja Casablanca1

HT 0–1Sun 28 Jun 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–433%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jun 2026, 15:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Raja's title-chasing motivation and coaching reset give them a directional edge, but IR Tanger's stubborn home record makes a low-scoring draw or narrow Raja win most likely.

The best value lies in Under 0.5 first-half goals (+13.3% edge) and Over 4.5 cards (+4.4% edge), while the match-winner and first-half result markets on Raja are overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

SNRT reported on 13 June 2026 that Raja moved quickly after sacking Davids, bringing in Nabi for the decisive closing stretch.
- Nabi's deal runs to June 2027 with an option to 2028, and he is expected to bring a fitness coach and video-analysis support, signaling a broader technical reset.
- Raja's last five matches under Davids were LWWDL, showing inconsistency that the new coach must address immediately.
As of 23 June 2026, Raja were 3rd on 49 points, three behind AS FAR and one behind RS Berkane, with the Botola Pro season running through July 2026.
- Botola tiebreak rules rank two-team ties by head-to-head goal difference, and Raja were level on points with MAS Fez but held the edge, making slip-ups directly threatening to continental position.
- IR Tanger are 6th on 35 points, 11 clear of the relegation playoff spot, with little at stake beyond pride.
IR Tanger home record: 4W-7D-2L, with 12 goals scored and 12 conceded in 13 matches.
- They have kept clean sheets in 5 of 13 home games (38%), but failed to score in 3 of their last 5 at home.
- Raja's away record is 6W-3D-4L, with 16 goals scored and 12 conceded, showing they can win but are not dominant travelers.
IR Tanger's season page lists Hilal Et-Tair until 18 November 2025, Pepe Mel from 2 December 2025 to 10 March 2026, and Abdelhak Benchikha from 11 March 2026.
- Under Benchikha, IR Tanger have won 4, drawn 2, and lost 2 in their last 8 league matches, showing some stabilization.
- The frequent coaching changes point to a season-long stability issue rather than a settled home setup.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Raja's superior motivation and slightly better away form give them an edge, but IR Tanger's solid home record (only 2 losses) and Raja's recent inconsistency limit confidence.
- Raja away record: 6W-3D-4L (13 matches), 16 goals scored, 12 conceded.
- IR Tanger home record: 4W-7D-2L (13 matches), 12 goals scored, 12 conceded.
- Raja last 5 form: LWWDL (8 points from 15), IR Tanger last 5: LWWWL (9 points from 15).
- Motivation gap: Raja 3rd (49 pts) fighting for title/CAF spots; IR Tanger 6th (35 pts) with little at stake.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRaja CasablancaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IR Tanger's high home draw rate and Raja's ability to avoid defeat in most away matches, combined with a mixed H2H, make a Raja win or draw highly probable.
- IR Tanger home losses: only 2 in 13 matches (15% loss rate).
- Raja away losses: 4 in 13 (31% loss rate), but 9 of 13 away matches avoided defeat.
- H2H last 5: 2 Raja wins, 2 draws, 1 IR Tanger win (all competitions).
- IR Tanger home draws: 7 of 13 matches (54% draw rate).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Raja CasablancaEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Raja's strong first-half away record (0.8 goals scored, 0.3 conceded) clashes with IR Tanger's tendency for tight first halves at home, making a stalemate at the break the most balanced outcome.
- IR Tanger first half record: led at HT in 27% of matches, trailed in 27%, drawn in 46%.
- Raja first half record: led at HT in 53% of matches, trailed in 7%, drawn in 40%.
- IR Tanger home first half goals: 0.4 avg scored, 0.5 conceded.
- Raja away first half goals: 0.8 avg scored, 0.3 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Raja's tendency to score more in the second half away from home, combined with their higher motivation, gives them a slight edge to win the second period, though IR Tanger's resilience keeps confidence low.
- Raja second-half performance: scored 12 of 16 away goals after HT (75%).
- IR Tanger second-half home goals conceded: 7 of 12 total (58%).
- Motivation: Raja's need for points likely to push them harder in the second half.
- IR Tanger home second-half record: 4 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses in 13 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableRaja CasablancaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time is common for IR Tanger at home, and Raja's superior second-half away form could see them snatch a win, but the low frequency of such outcomes limits probability.
- IR Tanger home HT draws: 7 of 13 matches (54%).
- Raja away HT leads: 6 of 13 matches (46%).
- Raja away wins after HT draw: 2 of 6 matches (33%).
- IR Tanger home losses after HT draw: 1 of 7 matches (14%).
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Raja CasablancaEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring records, with IR Tanger's home games particularly low-scoring. Raja's away games average just over 2 goals, suggesting a tight contest likely staying under 2.5.
- IR Tanger home matches: 12 goals for, 12 against in 13 games (avg 1.85 total goals).
- Raja away matches: 16 goals for, 12 against in 13 games (avg 2.15 total goals).
- IR Tanger last 15 matches: 15 goals scored, 10 conceded (avg 1.67 total goals).
- Raja last 15 matches: 22 goals scored, 14 conceded (avg 2.4 total goals).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown defensive solidity, with IR Tanger keeping clean sheets in over a third of home games and Raja blanking in some recent away trips, making a shutout on one side likely.
- IR Tanger home clean sheets: 5 in 13 matches (38%).
- Raja away clean sheets: 4 in 13 matches (31%).
- IR Tanger failed to score in 3 of last 5 home matches.
- Raja failed to score in 2 of last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring averages, especially IR Tanger at home, suggesting a goalless first half is more likely than not.
- IR Tanger home first half goals: 0.4 avg scored, 0.5 conceded (0.9 total avg).
- Raja away first half goals: 0.8 avg scored, 0.3 conceded (1.1 total avg).
- IR Tanger last 5 matches: 0 first-half goals in 2 of 5.
- Raja last 5 matches: 0 first-half goals in 1 of 5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 2 cards each, and the high motivation for Raja could lead to a more physical contest, pushing the total cards over 4.5.
- IR Tanger average yellow cards: 2.2 per match (last 15).
- Raja average yellow cards: 2.0 per match (last 15).
- Combined average: 4.2 cards per match, with 7 of last 15 IR Tanger matches seeing 5+ cards.
- High-stakes match for Raja likely to increase intensity and fouls.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IR Tanger's card average is just below 2.5, but facing a motivated Raja side could push them over, though the lack of opponent card data keeps confidence low.
- IR Tanger home yellow cards: 2.2 avg overall, but 3+ in 3 of last 5 home matches.
- Raja away opponents' cards: data unavailable, but Raja's away matches tend to be competitive.
- IR Tanger discipline: 2.2 cards per game, with spikes in tighter matches.
BetBugs · Home Cards Over/Undernot gradableIR Tanger over 2.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L2-0Raja CasablancavIttihad TangerFeb 22, 2026BOT

D0-0Ittihad TangervRaja CasablancaAug 28, 2025FRI

D1-1Raja CasablancavIttihad TangerJan 23, 2025BOT

L3-1Ittihad TangervRaja CasablancaSep 25, 2024BOT

W1-2Ittihad TangervRaja CasablancaMay 28, 2024BOT

Raja Casablanca: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Botola Pro 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	IR Tanger	27	8	11	8	24-28	35	LWWWL
4	Raja Casablanca	27	14	7	6	34-18	49	LWWDL

14pt gap between teams

Recent Form

IR Tanger

L0-2Olympique DcheïraJun 25BOT

W1-0CR Khemis ZemamraJun 21BOT

W2-0Kawkab MarrakechJun 17BOT

W2-1Yacoub El MansourJun 14BOT

L0-1Renaissance BerkaneJun 8BOT

W2-1Wydad ACJun 3BOT

W1-0Maghreb FèsMay 22BOT

W1-0KAC KenitraMay 17CUP

D1-1Difaa EL JadidaMay 10BOT

D1-1FUS RabatMay 6BOT

D0-0FAR RabatMay 3BOT

W2-1Olympique SafiApr 29BOT

D1-1Hassania AgadirApr 25BOT

L0-1CODM MeknèsMar 6BOT

D1-1UTS RabatFeb 28BOT

Raja Casablanca

L1-2Yacoub El MansourJun 25BOT

W2-1CODM MeknèsJun 21BOT

W4-3CR Khemis ZemamraJun 17BOT

D1-1UTS RabatJun 14BOT

L0-2Kawkab MarrakechJun 9BOT

L0-1Renaissance BerkaneJun 3BOT

W1-0Olympique DcheïraMay 24BOT

W2-0El MassiraMay 16CUP

L0-1Wydad ACMay 9BOT

W2-0Maghreb FèsMay 6BOT

W1-0Difaa EL JadidaMay 3BOT

L1-2FAR RabatApr 30BOT

W4-1FUS RabatApr 26BOT

W2-0Olympique SafiMar 7BOT

W1-0Hassania AgadirMar 1BOT

Squad & Injuries

IR Tanger

33 available

Attackers9

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Raja Casablanca

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Under 0.5

Over 4.5

Draw or Raja Casablanca

No

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Raja Casablanca

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

IR Tanger

Raja Casablanca

Squad & Injuries

IR Tanger

Raja Casablanca