USL League OneFull time

Predictions graded

Portland Hearts Of Pine5Richmond Kickers1

HT 1–1Wed 24 Jun 2026, 23:06 Predictions graded

Predictions10–191%

Edges8–189%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Jun 2026, 00:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Portland are unbeaten in two H2H meetings and face a Richmond side with a new interim coach, poor away form, and finishing woes.

The best value lies in Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.10, with a +7.4-point edge, as both teams concede more after the break. Avoid backing Richmond outright or Portland -1 handicap; the hosts should win or draw, but the match is likely to be decided late.

Context

Richmond's official match report confirms Ownby debuted as interim head coach in the 2-0 loss to Fort Wayne on June 20.
- The coaching change happened just four days before this match, giving Ownby minimal time to implement changes.
- Richmond lost that game despite 15 shots and 54.6% possession, suggesting the team is still adapting.
Richmond's away record is W1 D1 L5, with 13 goals conceded in 7 matches.
- They have lost their last three away matches: 0-1 at Corpus Christi, 1-2 at Boise, and 0-5 at Chattanooga.
- Portland have lost only once in six home matches this season (W2 D3 L1).
Portland won 5-2 at Richmond in September 2025.
- The earlier meeting in August 2025 ended 0-0 at Portland.
- The sample is small, but Richmond have not scored at Portland's ground in one attempt.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 8

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Portland Hearts Of Pine or Draw

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Portland are unbeaten in two H2H meetings and have lost only once in six home matches, while Richmond have won just once in seven away trips and lost their last three overall.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Portland Hearts Of Pine

1.79fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 56%

0.0ppshort

Portland's strong H2H record and solid home form against Richmond's poor away results and recent losing streak give them the edge.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Richmond Kickers to score

1.15fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Portland's defense rarely holds firm, conceding in 5 of 6 home matches, while Richmond has scored in 3 of last 5 overall.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Portland Hearts Of Pine to score

1.10fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Richmond's away defensive record is abysmal, conceding in every road game, while Portland consistently finds the net at home.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Both sides show consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making it likely each finds the net.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.33fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Richmond's tendency to concede early (0.9 first-half goals against) and Portland's moderate first-half scoring suggest at least one goal before the break.

Total Goals HomewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Portland's home scoring rate and Richmond's leaky away defense point to the hosts netting at least twice.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Portland's strong H2H record and solid home form against Richmond's poor away results and recent losing streak give them the edge.
- Portland unbeaten in 2 H2H meetings (1W, 1D), including 5-2 away win
- Portland home record: 2W-3D-1L, only 1 loss in 6 home matches
- Richmond away record: 1W-1D-5L, conceded 13 in 7 away games
- Richmond lost last 3 matches, conceding 5 goals
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPortland Hearts Of PineEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's home resilience and Richmond's travel struggles make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Portland unbeaten in 2 H2H meetings
- Portland home record: only 1 loss in 6 (W2 D3 L1)
- Richmond away record: 1 win in 7 (W1 D1 L5)
- Richmond lost last 3 matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonPortland Hearts Of Pine or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Richmond's poor first-half away record gives Portland a slight edge to lead at halftime, though low confidence due to Portland's own inconsistency.
- Portland led at HT in 33% of matches, Richmond in 20%
- Richmond trailed at HT in 47% of matches
- Portland home matches: led at HT in 2 of 6 (33%)
- Richmond away matches: trailed at HT in 4 of 7 (57%)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostPortland Hearts Of PineEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Portland's home advantage and Richmond's away fragility could lead to a wire-to-wire win, but Portland's low overall win rate keeps probability modest.
- Portland won only 3 of 13 matches overall
- Richmond lost 7 of 12 matches
- Portland home HT/FT win rate: 2 of 6 (33%)
- Richmond away HT/FT loss rate: 4 of 7 (57%)
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradablePortland Hearts Of Pine / Portland Hearts Of PineEstimated chance25%

Goals8 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have leaky defenses and recent matches trend toward higher scores, especially with Portland's home attacking intent.
- Portland's last 5 matches: 3.4 total goals on average
- Richmond's last 5 matches: 2.8 total goals on average
- H2H: 5-2 and 0-0, averaging 3.5 goals per game
- Both teams concede heavily: Portland 1.8 GA, Richmond 1.9 GA overall
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides show consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making it likely each finds the net.
- Portland scored in 4 of last 5 matches
- Richmond scored in 3 of last 5 matches
- Both teams conceded in 4 of last 5 matches each
- H2H: both scored in the 5-2 match
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Richmond's tendency to concede early (0.9 first-half goals against) and Portland's moderate first-half scoring suggest at least one goal before the break.
- Portland first half goals: 0.6 per game, conceded 0.6
- Richmond first half goals: 0.3 per game, conceded 0.9
- Portland led at HT in 33% of matches, trailed in 40%
- Richmond trailed at HT in 47% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Defensive fatigue and tactical adjustments often lead to more second-half goals, supported by both teams' higher concession rates after the break.
- Portland second half goals: 0.5 per game (1.1 total - 0.6 first half)
- Richmond second half goals: 0.5 per game (0.8 total - 0.3 first half)
- Both teams concede more in second half: Portland 1.2, Richmond 1.0
- Last 5 matches: 60% of goals came in second half for both teams
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's defense rarely holds firm, and Richmond's ability to score sporadically makes a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Portland kept only 2 clean sheets in 13 matches
- Portland conceded in 5 of 6 home matches
- Richmond scored in 3 of last 5 matches
- Richmond failed to score in only 4 of 12 matches overall
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonRichmond Kickers to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Richmond's away defensive record is abysmal, conceding in every road game, while Portland consistently finds the net at home.
- Richmond kept only 2 clean sheets in 12 matches
- Richmond conceded in all 7 away matches (13 goals)
- Portland scored in 5 of 6 home matches
- Portland scored 8 goals in 6 home games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPortland Hearts Of Pine to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's home scoring rate and Richmond's leaky away defense point to the hosts netting at least twice.
- Portland home goals: 8 in 6 matches (1.33 per game)
- Portland scored 2+ in 3 of 6 home matches
- Richmond away conceded 13 in 7 matches (1.86 per game)
- Richmond conceded 2+ in 5 of 7 away matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonPortland Hearts Of Pine over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Richmond's away scoring struggles and Portland's decent home defense suggest the visitors will be limited to one goal at most.
- Richmond away goals: 6 in 7 matches (0.86 per game)
- Richmond scored 0 or 1 in 6 of 7 away matches
- Portland home conceded 6 in 6 matches (1.00 per game)
- Portland kept Richmond to 0 goals in one H2H home meeting
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonRichmond Kickers under 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner stats, we rely on league norms and Richmond's crossing focus under the new coach to project a moderate total.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- League average corners typically around 9-10 per match
- Richmond's interim coach emphasized crossing (20 crosses won in last match)
- Portland's home attacking style likely generates corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 7 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 0W

W2-5Richmond KickersvPortland Hearts of PineSep 17, 2025USL

D0-0Portland Hearts of PinevRichmond KickersAug 9, 2025USL

3.5 goals/game avg

League Table

USL League One 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
13	Portland Hearts Of Pine	13	3	5	5	16-21	14	LLLWD
15	Richmond Kickers	12	3	2	7	11-19	11	LLLDL

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Portland Hearts Of Pine

L1-5Westchester SCJun 19USL

L1-2Chattanooga Red WolvesJun 13USL

L1-5BrooklynJun 7USL

L2-3Corpus ChristiJun 4USL

W2-1Spokane VelocityMay 30USL

D1-1Greenville TriumphMay 23USL

W2-1Rhode IslandMay 16USL

D2-2Union OmahaMay 10USL

L0-3Fort WayneMay 6USL

W3-1NY CosmosMay 2USL

D1-1NaplesApr 19USL

D0-0One KnoxvilleApr 11USL

L0-1Sarasota ParadiseMar 28USL

D0-0AltaMar 22USL

L0-1Vermont GreenMar 17US

Richmond Kickers

L0-2Fort WayneJun 20USL

L0-1Corpus ChristiJun 14USL

L1-2BoiseJun 11USL

L0-2Loudoun UnitedJun 6USL

D2-2BoiseMay 30USL

L0-5Chattanooga Red WolvesMay 27USL

L0-4Charleston BatteryMay 16USL

W3-0Greenville TriumphMay 9USL

W1-0Westchester SCMay 1USL

L1-2Charlotte IndependenceApr 25USL

W2-1Union OmahaApr 18USL

L0-3Columbus CrewApr 15US

L1-3Spokane VelocityApr 12USL

W1-0Loudoun UnitedApr 1US

L0-1One KnoxvilleMar 27USL

Squad & Injuries

Portland Hearts Of Pine

28 available

Attackers9

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Richmond Kickers

23 available

Attackers6

Midfielders5

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Portland Hearts Of Pine5Richmond Kickers1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

Portland Hearts Of Pine or Draw

Portland Hearts Of Pine

Richmond Kickers to score

Portland Hearts Of Pine to score

Yes

Over 0.5

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals8 of 8 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

@ 4.00

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Portland Hearts Of Pine

Richmond Kickers

Squad & Injuries

Portland Hearts Of Pine

Richmond Kickers