USL ChampionshipFull time

Predictions graded

Monterey Bay1El Paso Locomotive0

HT 0–0Sun 21 Jun 2026, 02:00 Predictions graded

Predictions1–614%

Edges1–233%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Jun 2026, 16:10 · Europe/Bucharest

El Paso’s strong away form and H2H edge make them favorites to avoid defeat, but the real value is in the cards market.

Over 3.5 total cards (2.20) and over 1.5 El Paso cards (1.83) offer significant edges given their six red cards this season and the playoff tiebreak stakes. Avoid backing Monterey Bay outright or the over 2.5 goals market, where odds are too short relative to the data.

Context

USL uses head-to-head points as the first tiebreaker for playoff seeding.
- El Paso won 3-0 at Monterey Bay on March 14, 2026.
- A non-loss for El Paso clinches the H2H advantage.
El Paso received two straight reds (Diego Abitia and Robert Coronado) on May 30.
- The club has six red cards in all competitions this season.
- Discipline volatility is a known risk in high-stakes matches.
Covelo replaced Jordan Stewart as head coach, confirmed on May 6.
- Saidi, a 17-year-old forward from San Diego FC, joined on loan two days before this match.
- Monterey Bay have won three of their last five home league games, showing some improvement.
El Paso away: 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in 6 USL matches.
- Monterey Bay home: 3 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses in 7 USL matches.
- El Paso scored 13 goals and conceded only 6 on the road.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
El Paso's strong away form (only 1 loss) and recent H2H dominance, including a 3-0 win at this venue, give them the edge despite Monterey Bay's improved recent home results.
- El Paso away record: 3W-2D-1L, 13 goals scored, 6 conceded in 6 away matches this season.
- Monterey Bay home record: 3W-1D-3L, 9 goals scored, 8 conceded in 7 home matches.
- H2H: El Paso won 3-0 at Monterey Bay in March 2026, and are unbeaten in last 3 meetings (2W,1D).
- Monterey Bay last 5 league matches: 3W,2L; El Paso last 5 league matches: 1W,2D,2L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEl Paso LocomotiveEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Monterey Bay's overall poor season and El Paso's resilient away form make a home win unlikely; the visitors are well-placed to avoid defeat.
- Monterey Bay have lost 8 of 13 league games this season; El Paso have lost only 4 of 12.
- El Paso away: unbeaten in 5 of 6 (3W,2D); Monterey Bay home: lost 3 of 7.
- H2H: El Paso unbeaten in last 3 (2W,1D), including a 3-0 away win.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or El Paso LocomotiveEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
El Paso's slightly better first-half performance and recent H2H halftime lead give them a marginal edge, but the low overall lead rates keep confidence low.
- El Paso led at halftime in 33% of matches; Monterey Bay led in 27%.
- El Paso first-half goal difference: +0.2 per game; Monterey Bay: -0.1 per game.
- H2H: El Paso led 1-0 at halftime in the March 2026 meeting.
- Monterey Bay trailed at halftime in 33% of matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostEl Paso LocomotiveEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
El Paso's superior second-half away record and Monterey Bay's tendency to fade after halftime suggest the visitors could edge the second period.
- El Paso away: won second half in 3 of 6 matches (drawn 2, lost 1).
- Monterey Bay home: won second half in 2 of 7 matches (drawn 2, lost 3).
- El Paso scored 8 second-half away goals; Monterey Bay conceded 5 second-half home goals.
- H2H: El Paso won second half 2-0 in March 2026.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableEl Paso LocomotiveEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half is plausible given both teams' high draw rates at halftime, and El Paso's stronger second half could secure the win.
- El Paso drew at halftime in 33% of matches; Monterey Bay drew in 40%.
- El Paso won 4 of 12 matches overall; Monterey Bay won 3 of 13.
- H2H: No exact HT/FT pattern in last 5, but El Paso won after leading at HT in March.
- Draw at HT is common for both teams.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / El Paso LocomotiveEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
El Paso's away games are high-scoring, and Monterey Bay's home matches often see goals; combined with H2H trends, over 2.5 is likely.
- El Paso away matches average 3.17 total goals (13 scored, 6 conceded in 6 games).
- Monterey Bay home matches average 2.43 total goals (9 scored, 8 conceded in 7 games).
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals, including a 3-0 and a 2-2.
- El Paso's last 5 league matches: 3 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, and defensive vulnerabilities suggest each will concede.
- Monterey Bay scored in 5 of 7 home league games this season.
- El Paso scored in 5 of 6 away league games this season.
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- El Paso conceded in 4 of 6 away games; Monterey Bay conceded in 5 of 7 home games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high rates of first-half goals, with El Paso particularly strong early; a goalless first half is unlikely.
- Monterey Bay first-half goals: 0.5 per game average; conceded 0.6 per game.
- El Paso first-half goals: 0.9 per game average; conceded 0.7 per game.
- In 12 of 15 Monterey Bay recent matches, there was at least one first-half goal.
- In 11 of 15 El Paso recent matches, there was at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in this fixture and in both teams' recent matches often feature multiple goals as fatigue and tactical shifts open up play.
- El Paso away matches: 8 of 13 goals scored came in second half; 4 of 6 conceded in second half.
- Monterey Bay home matches: 5 of 9 goals scored in second half; 5 of 8 conceded in second half.
- Last 5 H2H: second half produced 7 goals in total (1.4 per game).
- Both teams tend to concede more after halftime.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
El Paso's disciplinary volatility and the competitive context of a H2H tiebreaker raise the probability of a card-heavy match.
- El Paso accumulated 6 red cards in all competitions this season, with 2 reds in a recent match.
- Monterey Bay discipline data unavailable, but match intensity expected due to H2H tiebreaker stakes.
- USL Championship average cards per game typically around 4-5.
- High-stakes match with playoff implications increases card likelihood.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
El Paso's proven tendency to pick up cards, especially in heated away games, makes over 1.5 cards for them likely.
- El Paso received 2 red cards in their May 30 match, and have 6 reds this season.
- Away teams in tense USL matches often accumulate cards.
- El Paso's aggressive style may lead to bookings.
BetBugs · Away Cards Over/Undernot gradableEl Paso Locomotive over 1.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 3D · 2W

L0-3Monterey BayvEl Paso LocomotiveMar 15, 2026USL

D2-2El Paso LocomotivevMonterey BayAug 17, 2025USL

L1-2Monterey BayvEl Paso LocomotiveJun 22, 2025USL

D0-0Monterey BayvEl Paso LocomotiveAug 25, 2024USL

D1-1El Paso LocomotivevMonterey BayMar 14, 2024USL

El Paso Locomotive unbeaten in 5 meetingsEl Paso Locomotive: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

USL Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Monterey Bay	13	3	2	8	13-22	11	LWWWL
7	El Paso Locomotive Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	12	4	4	4	23-22	16	DDLLD

5pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Monterey Bay

L0-2FC TulsaJun 18USL

W2-1Sporting JAXJun 11USL

W4-1Loudoun UnitedMay 31USL

W2-0Birmingham LegionMay 24USL

L3-4BoiseMay 17USL

L1-3LexingtonMay 8USL

L1-2FC TulsaMay 3USL

L1-4Colorado SpringsApr 18USL

L1-3Indy ElevenApr 11USL

D0-0San AntonioApr 5USL

L0-1Las Vegas LightsMar 29USL

D1-1Sacramento RepublicMar 22USL

L0-3El Paso LocomotiveMar 15USL

L0-1Oakland RootsMar 8USL

D1-1Las Vegas LightsOct 26USL

El Paso Locomotive

D1-1Phoenix RisingJun 14USL

D1-1Detroit CityJun 10USL

L1-2Colorado SpringsJun 7USL

L1-4LexingtonMay 31USL

W2-0AltaMay 28USL

L1-2Oakland RootsMay 10USL

D2-2New Mexico UnitedMay 7USL

L1-4FC TulsaApr 30USL

W2-1Orange County SCApr 26USL

L2-3San AntonioApr 19USL

L1-4Houston DynamoApr 16US

W4-0Hartford AthleticApr 11USL

W3-2Las Vegas LightsApr 5USL

W4-0New Mexico UnitedApr 2US

W2-1Sacramento RepublicMar 29USL

Squad & Injuries

Monterey Bay

25 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

El Paso Locomotive

24 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or El Paso Locomotive

Over 3.5

El Paso Locomotive over 1.5

Over 0.5

Yes

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Monterey Bay

Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Monterey Bay

El Paso Locomotive

Squad & Injuries

Monterey Bay

El Paso Locomotive