USL League OneFull time

Predictions graded

Forward Madison3New York Cosmos1

HT 2–0Sun 21 Jun 2026, 00:06 Predictions graded

Predictions8–0100%

Edges3–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Jun 2026, 15:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Forward Madison's formidable home attack (2+ goals in every home league game) meets the Cosmos' dreadful away defense (2+ conceded in every away game), making a home win and Over 1.5 Madison goals the standout plays.

The Half-Time/Full-Time market for Madison/Madison offers a value edge, while Both Teams to Score and 1st Half Over 0.5 goals are overpriced and best avoided.

Context

Cosmos away record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 6 losses, 6 goals scored, 18 conceded.
- They conceded at least 2 goals in every away match and 3+ in five of six.
- Madison are unbeaten at home (2-1-0) and average 3.0 goals per home game.
Karamoko joined on loan on May 27 and scored in the June 13 home win.
- Madison scored 5 goals in that match, their highest home output this season.
- The Cosmos have the leakiest away defense in the league (3.0 goals conceded per game).
USL League One sends the top eight teams to the playoffs; both are in the mix.
- The Cosmos' June 17 preview called the season a critical stretch and noted Madison is also chasing postseason ground.
- Total wins are the first tiebreaker, making a victory more valuable than a draw.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Forward Madison

1.54fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 65%

0.0ppshort

Forward Madison's strong home form (unbeaten, 3.0 goals scored per game) contrasts sharply with NY Cosmos' abysmal away record (0 points, 3.0 goals conceded per game), making a home win highly likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Forward Madison's strong home form (unbeaten, 3.0 goals scored per game) contrasts sharply with NY Cosmos' abysmal away record (0 points, 3.0 goals conceded per game), making a home win highly likely.
- Forward Madison home record this season: 2W-1D-0L, 9 goals for, 2 against in 3 matches.
- NY Cosmos away record: 0W-0D-6L, 6 goals for, 18 against in 6 matches.
- Forward Madison last 5 matches: 2W-1D-2L, including 5-1 home win vs Boise and 3-0 home win vs Corpus Christi.
- NY Cosmos last 5 matches: 0W-0D-5L, conceded 16 goals in those 5.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonForward MadisonEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Forward Madison's strong home starts (leading at half in 2 of 3 home league games) and NY Cosmos' habit of conceding early on the road make a halftime lead for the hosts probable.
- Forward Madison led at halftime in 2 of 3 home league matches this season.
- NY Cosmos trailed at halftime in 4 of 6 away matches this season.
- Forward Madison scored first-half goals in 4 of last 5 home matches.
- NY Cosmos conceded first-half goals in 5 of 6 away matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonForward MadisonEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Forward Madison's ability to dominate from start to finish at home (won both halves in last home game) and NY Cosmos' tendency to collapse early and late on the road support a HT/FT home win.
- Forward Madison won both halves in their last home match (3-0 vs Corpus Christi).
- NY Cosmos lost both halves in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Forward Madison led at halftime and won the match in 2 of 3 home league games.
- NY Cosmos trailed at halftime and lost the match in all 4 away matches where they trailed at half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableForward Madison / Forward MadisonEstimated chance50%

Goals6 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches trend high-scoring, especially with NY Cosmos' leaky defense on the road (3.0 goals conceded per away game) and Forward Madison's potent home attack, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Forward Madison home matches average 3.7 total goals (9 for, 2 against in 3 games).
- NY Cosmos away matches average 4.0 total goals (6 for, 18 against in 6 games).
- Last H2H ended 2-2 on April 19, 2026.
- NY Cosmos conceded 3+ goals in 5 of their last 6 away matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While Forward Madison's home defense is solid, NY Cosmos have consistently found the net (scored in 8 of last 10) and Madison's attack is strong, making both teams scoring a reasonable expectation.
- Forward Madison scored in 8 of last 10 matches across all competitions.
- NY Cosmos scored in 8 of last 10 matches despite poor results.
- Last H2H saw both teams score in a 2-2 draw.
- NY Cosmos conceded in all 6 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Madison's strong home form, they rarely keep clean sheets (only 1 in last 5 home games), and NY Cosmos have been scoring consistently on the road, suggesting the visitors are likely to score.
- Forward Madison kept only 1 clean sheet in last 5 home matches (all competitions).
- NY Cosmos scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- Forward Madison conceded in 2 of 3 home league matches this season.
- NY Cosmos average 1.0 goal per away game this season.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonNew York Cosmos to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Forward Madison's home scoring record is exceptional (2+ goals in every home league game), and NY Cosmos' away defense is the worst in the league, making over 1.5 home goals highly probable.
- Forward Madison scored 2+ goals in all 3 home league matches this season (9 total).
- Forward Madison scored 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 home matches across all competitions.
- NY Cosmos conceded 2+ goals in all 6 away matches this season (18 total).
- Forward Madison average 3.0 goals per home game.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonForward Madison over 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
NY Cosmos struggle to score multiple goals on the road (only once in 6 away games), and Forward Madison's home defense is stingy, making under 1.5 away goals likely.
- NY Cosmos scored more than 1 goal in only 1 of 6 away matches this season.
- Forward Madison conceded only 2 goals in 3 home league matches (0.67 per game).
- NY Cosmos average 1.0 goal per away game.
- Forward Madison kept a clean sheet in their last home match (3-0 vs Corpus Christi).
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonNew York Cosmos under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Forward Madison's tendency to start fast at home (first-half goals in 4 of last 5 home games) combined with NY Cosmos' poor first-half defensive record on the road suggests at least one first-half goal.
- Forward Madison scored a first-half goal in 4 of last 5 home matches.
- NY Cosmos conceded a first-half goal in 5 of 6 away matches this season.
- Forward Madison led at halftime in 40% of matches this season.
- NY Cosmos trailed at halftime in 50% of matches this season.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Although specific corner stats are missing, the match context of an attacking home side against a leaky away defense typically generates above-average corners, making over 8.5 a reasonable low-confidence estimate.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided stats.
- Forward Madison's attacking style at home (3.0 goals per game) suggests high corner potential.
- NY Cosmos' defensive struggles on the road (3.0 goals conceded per game) imply many defensive actions, potentially leading to corners.
- General league average for corners in USL League One is around 9-10 per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 0W

D2-2NY CosmosvForward MadisonApr 19, 2026USL

4 goals/game avg

League Table

USL League One 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Forward Madison Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	11	5	2	4	18-13	17	DWLWL
17	New York Cosmos	11	2	1	8	15-27	7	LLLLL

10pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Forward Madison

D1-1Fort WayneJun 18USL

W5-1BoiseJun 14USL

L0-2Indy ElevenJun 6USL

L0-1Greenville TriumphJun 3USL

W3-0Corpus ChristiMay 29USL

L1-3Charlotte IndependenceMay 23USL

L0-1Detroit CityMay 16USL

L0-2AltaMay 10USL

W3-1Sarasota ParadiseMay 2USL

L2-4LexingtonApr 25USL

D2-2NY CosmosApr 19USL

L0-1Union OmahaApr 11USL

W1-0NaplesMar 28USL

L0-2Flint City BucksMar 19US

W2-1One KnoxvilleMar 14USL

New York Cosmos

L1-3One KnoxvilleJun 13USL

L1-4Hartford AthleticJun 6USL

L1-2Sarasota ParadiseMay 30USL

L1-2Union OmahaMay 27USL

L0-4AltaMay 24USL

W3-2Westchester SCMay 15USL

L1-3Portland Hearts of PineMay 2USL

L0-3BrooklynApr 25USL

D2-2Forward MadisonApr 19USL

W3-2Charlotte IndependenceApr 3USL

W2-0Fort WayneMar 28USL

L2-3Greenville TriumphMar 25USL

L1-3Spokane VelocityMar 21USL

L1-3Portland Hearts of PineMar 14USL

L1-2LA ForceSep 29NIS

Squad & Injuries

Forward Madison

23 available

Attackers8

Midfielders4

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

New York Cosmos

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Forward Madison at half-time / Forward Madison at full-time

Over 1.5

Forward Madison

Over 2.5

Result2 of 2 landed

Goals6 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Forward Madison

New York Cosmos

Squad & Injuries

Forward Madison

New York Cosmos