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World Cup 2026
Mexico

Mexico - South Korea

South Korea
World Cup World Cup 2026FinishedFeatured
Friday, June 19, 2026 at 01:00

Finished Snapshot

FT1-0
FinishedSettled

Halftime

0-0

Predictions

3W · 5L · 0P

Edges

2W · 2L · 0P

Match Stats

Possession

42%-58%

Shots

8-9

Shots on Target

4-2

Corners

0-2
World Cup match read

Quick Take

Start here for the short read and the strongest priced leans.

Back both teams to score at 2.10 (62% estimated vs. 47.6% implied) and over 3.5 cards at 4.33 (60% estimated vs. 23.1% implied) for clear value. Avoid match-winner and double-chance markets, where Mexico's odds are overpriced given Montes' suspension and South Korea's venue comfort.

Context 7/10 Mexico's captain and starting centre-back is suspended, South Korea have already won at this venue, and the group-winner incentive creates a strong motivational asymmetry.
Double ChanceMexico or Draw68%Fair price
1 St Half Goals Over/UnderOver 0.565%Fair price
Both Teams To ScoreYes62%+14.4pp

Context Signals

The match conditions that matter before looking at the prices.

Betting Edges

Markets where the model and price are far enough apart.

Model probabilities

The model view before price and edge filtering.

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 0W
D2-2MexicovSouth KoreaSep 10, 2025FRI
W3-2MexicovSouth KoreaNov 14, 2020FRI
W1-2South KoreavMexicoJun 23, 2018WOR
Mexico unbeaten in 3 meetings4 goals/game avg

League Table

World Cup 2026/2027
#TeamPWDLGF-GAPts
1
MexicoMexico
Advancing to the Round of 32
11002-03
2
South KoreaSouth Korea
Advancing to the Round of 32
11002-13
Mexico leads the leagueSouth Korea leads the league

Recent Form

Mexico

Mexico

W2-0South AfricaJun 11WOR
W5-1SerbiaJun 5FRI
W1-0AustraliaMay 31FRI
W2-0GhanaMay 23FRI
D1-1BelgiumApr 1FRI
D0-0PortugalMar 29FRI
W4-0IcelandFeb 26FRI
W1-0BoliviaJan 25FRI
W1-0PanamaJan 23FRI
L1-2ParaguayNov 19FRI
D0-0UruguayNov 16FRI
D1-1EcuadorOct 15FRI
L0-4ColombiaOct 12FRI
D2-2South KoreaSep 10FRI
D0-0JapanSep 7FRI
South Korea

South Korea

W2-1CzechiaJun 12WOR
W1-0El SalvadorJun 4FRI
W5-0Trinidad and TobagoMay 31FRI
L0-1AustriaMar 31FRI
L0-4Ivory CoastMar 28FRI
W1-0GhanaNov 18FRI
W2-0BoliviaNov 14FRI
W2-0ParaguayOct 14FRI
L0-5BrazilOct 10FRI
D2-2MexicoSep 10FRI
W2-0USASep 6FRI
L0-1JapanJul 15EAF
W2-0Hong KongJul 11EAF
W3-0ChinaJul 7EAF
W4-0KuwaitJun 10WOR

Squad & Injuries

Mexico

26 available
Attackers5
Midfielders12
Defenders6
Goalkeeper3

South Korea

26 available
Attackers8
Midfielders9
Defenders6
Goalkeeper3
Mexico and South Korea meet in a pivotal Group A clash with both sides on three points after opening wins. The stakes are high: the group winner earns a significantly easier round-of-32 path against a third-placed team, while the runner-up faces the Group B runner-up. Mexico are weakened by the suspension of captain and centre-back César Montes, sent off late in their 2-0 win over South Africa. South Korea, meanwhile, have already proven they can handle the Guadalajara venue, coming from behind to beat Czechia 2-1 there in their opener.