USL ChampionshipFull time

Predictions graded

Louisville City2Brooklyn FC2

HT 1–1Sun 14 Jun 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–275%

Edges6–186%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Jun 2026, 08:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Louisville City are clear favorites against an expansion Brooklyn side with a dreadful away record, but the odds offer no value on a home win.

The best betting edge is 'Away Clean Sheet – No' at 1.45, with an estimated 85% probability versus a 69% implied chance, backed by Brooklyn conceding in all five road games this season.

Context

Brooklyn's official match preview confirms three matches in seven days against top-four Eastern Conference teams.
- Head coach Marlon LeBlanc said the team is still growing into its identity and operating through a difficult build process.
- Brooklyn have zero away wins this season (0W-1D-4L) and have conceded 15 goals in 5 road matches.
Louisville played at Phoenix Rising on June 11, just three days before this match.
- The win snapped a five-game league winless streak, the club's longest in its history.
- Louisville are still under interim head coach Simon Bird, who took over on March 17.
Brooklyn away record: 0W-1D-4L, 5 goals for, 15 against.
- Louisville home record: 3W-0D-3L, 9 goals for, 9 against, scoring in 5 of 6.
- The only prior H2H ended 1-0 to Louisville, with Brooklyn failing to score.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Louisville City

1.35fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 74%

0.0ppshort

Louisville's home advantage and Brooklyn's dreadful away record (0W-1D-4L, -10 GD) make the hosts clear favourites, reinforced by the only H2H win.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Louisville City's home advantage and Brooklyn's poor away form (0 wins, -10 goal difference) give the hosts a clear edge, reinforced by the only H2H win and Brooklyn's expansion struggles.
- Louisville City home record: 3W-0D-3L, 9 goals for, 9 against in 6 matches (USL Championship).
- Brooklyn FC away record: 0W-1D-4L, 5 goals for, 15 against in 5 matches (USL Championship).
- H2H: Louisville City won 1-0 away on 2026-03-28, Brooklyn yet to score in this fixture.
- Brooklyn FC last 5 league matches: 1W-1D-3L, 4 goals for, 11 against.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLouisville CityEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brooklyn's dreadful away record and Louisville's superior quality make a home win or draw highly likely; Brooklyn have only one away point all season.
- Louisville City home record: 3W-0D-3L, but losses came against strong sides; Brooklyn away: 0W-1D-4L.
- Brooklyn FC away goals conceded: 15 in 5 matches (3.0 per game).
- Louisville City overall points: 20 from 13 matches vs Brooklyn's 8 from 11.
- H2H: Louisville City won the only meeting 1-0.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLouisville City or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Louisville's strong overall first-half record and Brooklyn's away struggles give the hosts a slight edge to lead at the break, but home form is less dominant.
- Louisville City leading at half time in 13 of 15 recent matches (87%), but only 3 of 6 at home.
- Brooklyn FC trailing at half time in 27% of matches, but 3 of 5 away.
- Louisville City first half goals at home: 4 in 6 matches.
- Brooklyn FC first half goals conceded away: 6 in 5 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostLouisville CityEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Louisville could lead at half and full time given Brooklyn's poor away form, but the hosts' inconsistent home performances make this a low-confidence pick.
- Louisville City home HT/FT: led at HT and won in 2 of 6 home matches.
- Brooklyn FC away HT/FT: trailed at HT and lost in 3 of 5 away matches.
- Louisville City overall HT/FT win rate: 5 of 13 league matches.
- Brooklyn FC overall HT/FT loss rate: 5 of 11 league matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableLouisville City / Louisville CityEstimated chance35%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and Brooklyn's leaky away defense (3.0 goals conceded per away game) point to a high-scoring contest, with Louisville likely to exploit defensive gaps.
- Louisville City home matches: 9 goals for, 9 against in 6 games (avg 3.0 total goals).
- Brooklyn FC away matches: 5 goals for, 15 against in 5 games (avg 4.0 total goals).
- Louisville City last 5 matches: 3+ total goals in 3 of 5.
- Brooklyn FC last 5 matches: 3+ total goals in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Louisville's home games and Brooklyn's away games frequently see both teams score, and with Brooklyn's defensive frailties, Louisville should net while Brooklyn may grab a consolation.
- Louisville City home matches: both teams scored in 4 of 6 (67%).
- Brooklyn FC away matches: both teams scored in 4 of 5 (80%).
- Louisville City last 5 matches: both teams scored in 3 of 5.
- Brooklyn FC last 5 matches: both teams scored in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Against a Brooklyn side conceding heavily on the road, Louisville City should score at least twice, especially with home crowd support and Brooklyn's expansion-level defense.
- Louisville City home goals: 9 in 6 matches (1.5 per game), but 7 in last 3 home games.
- Brooklyn FC away goals conceded: 15 in 5 matches (3.0 per game).
- Louisville City scored 2+ in 3 of last 5 overall matches.
- H2H: Louisville City scored 1 goal away, but at home against weak defense expect more.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonLouisville City over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brooklyn have yet to keep an away clean sheet and face a Louisville side that consistently scores at home, making an away clean sheet extremely unlikely.
- Brooklyn FC away clean sheets: 0 in 5 matches.
- Brooklyn FC away goals conceded: 15 in 5 matches (3.0 per game).
- Louisville City home goals: 9 in 6 matches, scored in 5 of 6.
- Brooklyn FC overall clean sheets: 2 in 11 league matches (both at home).
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLouisville City to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Louisville's tendency to score early at home and Brooklyn's vulnerability in the first half on the road suggest at least one first-half goal is probable.
- Louisville City first half goals: 0.7 per game overall, scored in 8 of 15 recent matches.
- Brooklyn FC first half goals conceded: 0.6 per game overall, but 1.2 per away game (6 in 5).
- Louisville City home first half: scored in 4 of 6 home matches.
- Brooklyn FC away first half: conceded in 4 of 5 away matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of specific corner data, the expected attacking dominance by Louisville and Brooklyn's defensive posture suggest a higher corner count, but confidence is low due to missing stats.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Typical USL Championship matches average around 9-10 corners.
- Louisville City home matches likely to see more attacking pressure.
- Brooklyn FC away matches likely to concede corners under pressure.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W0-1BrooklynvLouisville CityMar 28, 2026USL

1 goals/game avg

League Table

USL Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Louisville City Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	13	6	2	5	22-20	20	WDLLL
12	Brooklyn FC	11	2	2	7	11-20	8	DLLLD

12pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Louisville City

W2-0Phoenix RisingJun 11USL

D1-1Birmingham LegionJun 4USL

L0-2Tampa Bay RowdiesMay 30USL

L3-4Miami FCMay 23USL

W5-1Union OmahaMay 17USL

L0-2Pittsburgh RiverhoundsMay 9USL

L1-2Detroit CityMay 2USL

W3-1Fort WayneApr 25USL

W1-0Sporting JAXApr 18USL

W2-1AustinApr 14US

D3-3Loudoun UnitedApr 10USL

L0-2Charleston BatteryApr 4USL

W2-0LexingtonApr 1US

W1-0BrooklynMar 28USL

W4-2Rhode IslandMar 21USL

Brooklyn FC

W5-1Portland Hearts of PineJun 7USL

D2-2Sporting JAXMay 31USL

L1-4Rhode IslandMay 23USL

L0-2Hartford AthleticMay 16USL

L0-1Loudoun UnitedMay 9USL

L2-3Miami FCMay 2USL

W3-0NY CosmosApr 25USL

D1-1Sacramento RepublicApr 21USL

W3-0Charleston BatteryApr 11USL

L0-1Louisville CityMar 28USL

L0-3LexingtonMar 25USL

L1-2Hartford AthleticMar 21USL

L0-3Detroit CityMar 14USL

W1-0Indy ElevenMar 8USL

W1-0Loudoun UnitedFeb 21FRI

Squad & Injuries

Louisville City

27 available

Attackers7

Midfielders7

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Brooklyn FC

0 available

Attackers0

Midfielders0

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Louisville City to score

Louisville City

Louisville City or Draw

Over 2.5

Over 1.5

Over 0.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals5 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Louisville City

Louisville City or Draw

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Louisville City

Brooklyn FC

Squad & Injuries

Louisville City

Brooklyn FC