Gremio Novorizontino SP vs Nautico PE: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's strong home form and Nautico's recent away struggles, combined with a dominant H2H at this venue, give the hosts a clear edge.
- Home record: 3W-1D-1L in 5 Serie B home matches (goals 7:6).
- Last 5 overall form: D-W-D-W-D (unbeaten in last 5 Serie B).
- Nautico away record: 3W-1D-2L, but last 2 away losses (0-2 at Sport, 0-1 at Ceara).
- H2H: Novorizontino won last meeting 6-0 at home in 2022.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With Novorizontino's solid home resilience and Nautico's dip in away form, the home side is highly likely to avoid defeat.
- Novorizontino lost only 1 of 5 home games this season.
- Nautico lost 2 of last 3 away matches.
- Novorizontino unbeaten in last 5 Serie B matches (3W-2D).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGremio Novorizontino SP or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have poor first-half leading records, making a halftime draw the most probable outcome.
- Novorizontino led at halftime in only 7 of 15 recent matches; home: led in 1 of 5.
- Nautico led at halftime in only 20% of recent matches; away: led in 1 of 6.
- Last 5 H2H first halves: 4 draws.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's tendency to grow into games at home and Nautico's second-half away fragility give the hosts a slight edge after the break.
- Novorizontino won second half in 3 of last 5 home games.
- Nautico lost second half in 2 of last 3 away games.
- Novorizontino's home second-half goal difference: +3.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableGremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A pattern of halftime draws turning into home wins is plausible given Novorizontino's second-half strength at home.
- Novorizontino drew at halftime in 4 of 5 home games, winning 2 of those.
- Nautico drew at halftime in 2 of 6 away games, losing both.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Gremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have trended toward lower-scoring affairs recently, and the stakes of a direct promotion clash often produce tighter contests.
- Novorizontino home games average 2.6 total goals, but 3 of 5 had under 2.5.
- Nautico away games average 2.83 total goals, but last 2 away had under 2.5.
- Novorizontino's last 5 home games: 3 under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have shown consistent ability to score and vulnerability at the back, making a goal each likely in this evenly matched contest.
- Novorizontino scored in 4 of 5 home games; conceded in 4 of 5.
- Nautico scored in 4 of 6 away games; conceded in 5 of 6.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Novorizontino's last 5 overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are slow starters, with very low first-half scoring rates, strongly pointing to a quiet opening period.
- Novorizontino first-half goals: 0.4 per game overall; only 2 of last 10 matches had over 1.5 FH goals.
- Nautico first-half goals: 0.4 per game overall; last 5 away: 0 first-half goals in 4 of 5.
- Novorizontino home first halves: 0 goals in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both sides typically more active after the break and defensive focus potentially slipping, the second half is likely to see more goals.
- Novorizontino's last 5 home games: 8 of 13 total goals came in second half.
- Nautico's last 5 away: 7 of 10 total goals came in second half.
- Both teams tend to concede more after halftime.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate and concede a high number of corners, pushing the total comfortably above the 9.5 line.
- Novorizontino home corners average: 5.0 for, 4.2 against = 9.2 total.
- Nautico away corners average: 5.3 for, 5.5 against = 10.8 total.
- Last 5 overall: Novorizontino games average 9.4 corners, Nautico 10.2.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The high-stakes promotion battle and both teams' disciplinary records suggest a card-heavy match.
- Novorizontino home yellow cards: 2.4 per game; opponents: 2.6.
- Nautico away yellow cards: 2.8 per game; opponents: 2.5.
- Last 5 overall: Novorizontino games average 5.2 cards, Nautico 5.6.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Gremio Novorizontino SP	11	4	5	2	14-11	17	DWDWD
6	Nautico PE Promotion Playoffs	12	6	1	5	16-12	19	LLWWW

Gremio Novorizontino SP2Nautico PE2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 1.5

Over 9.5

Gremio Novorizontino SP or Draw

No

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 1.5

Over 4.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Gremio Novorizontino SP

Nautico PE

Squad & Injuries

Gremio Novorizontino SP

Nautico PE