Cuiaba MT11 – 0Vila Nova0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Cuiaba's tendency to keep things level early, combined with Vila Nova's mixed first-half away form, points to a halftime draw as the most likely scenario.

• Cuiaba have been drawing at half-time in 8 of 11 league matches (73%).
• Vila Nova have been drawing at half-time in 5 of 12 league matches, and in 3 of 6 away matches.
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 were draws at half-time.
• Cuiaba's home first-half record: 1W-4D-1L.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

While a draw is a plausible full-time result, the specific HT/FT double of Draw/Draw is less certain given Vila Nova's ability to push for wins; it's a low-probability but possible outcome given Cuiaba's draw-heavy profile.

• Cuiaba have drawn 7 of 11 league matches, with 4 of those being 0-0 or 1-1.
• Vila Nova have drawn 4 of 12, but only 1 away draw (3-3 vs Ceara).
• Cuiaba's home draws: 4 of 6, with 3 ending 0-0 or 1-1.
• The last H2H meeting (Sep 2025) ended 2-2, but the one before (May 2025) was 1-0 to Cuiaba.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Cuiaba's extremely low-scoring profile, especially at home, and the defensive nature of their recent matches strongly support a low-scoring affair, despite Vila Nova's slightly higher scoring rate.

• Cuiaba's 11 league matches have seen only 11 total goals (6 for, 5 against), averaging 1.0 goals per game.
• Cuiaba's last 5 Serie B matches: 2-0, 0-1, 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 – all under 2.5 goals.
• Vila Nova's away matches average 2.33 goals per game (14 goals in 6 games), but 4 of 6 away games have had under 2.5 goals.
• Cuiaba's home matches average 1.33 goals per game (8 goals in 6 games), with 5 of 6 under 2.5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Cuiaba's offensive struggles and strong defense, combined with Vila Nova's decent defensive record, suggest at least one team is likely to fail to score, especially given the low-scoring trend.

• Cuiaba have failed to score in 6 of 11 league matches, including 3 of 6 at home.
• Cuiaba have kept 7 clean sheets in 11 league matches.
• Vila Nova have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 league matches, including 2 in 6 away games.
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in only 2 matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams tend to find the net more in the second half, and with the match likely opening up later, at least one second-half goal is probable.

• Cuiaba's last 5 Serie B matches: second-half goals in 4 of 5 (2, 1, 0, 0, 1).
• Vila Nova's away matches: second-half goals in 5 of 6, with 4 of those having over 0.5 second-half goals.
• Cuiaba have scored 4 of their 6 league goals in the second half.
• Vila Nova have scored 10 of their 18 league goals in the second half.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Combined corner averages suggest a total around 9-10, but the low-scoring, cautious nature of the match may limit attacking corner opportunities, making under 9.5 slightly more likely.

• Cuiaba average 3.7 corners per game overall, and 4.0 at home in recent matches with data.
• Vila Nova average 5.5 corners per game, but away from home they average 5.3 (based on available data).
• In Cuiaba's last 5 Serie B matches with corner data, total corners: 11, 7, 12, 12, 5 – average 9.4, with 3 of 5 under 9.5.
• In Vila Nova's last 5 away matches with corner data, total corners: 18, 11, 8, 9, 9 – average 11.0, but 3 of 5 under 9.5.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Vila Nova's higher card count, especially away from home, pushes the total towards over 4.5, but Cuiaba's relatively low card numbers at home keep the probability marginal.

• Cuiaba average 2.3 yellow cards per game, with 0.1 red cards; recent matches show 2, 2, 3, 2, 1 yellows.
• Vila Nova average 3.5 yellow cards per game, with 0.5 red cards; recent away matches show 6, 3, 4, 2, 4 yellows.
• In the last H2H meeting (Sep 2025), there were 5 yellow cards total.
• Cuiaba's home matches average 2.2 yellows, Vila Nova's away matches average 3.8 yellows.