Ettan - NorraFull time

Predictions graded

IF Karlstad2Gefle IF0

HT 1–0Sat 13 Jun 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jun 2026, 23:32 · Europe/Bucharest

IF Karlstad’s dominant league form and Gefle’s poor away defense make a home win likely, but the straight win odds offer no value.

The best edge is on Over 1.5 Karlstad goals (70% estimate vs. 65.4% implied), while the half-time/full-time Karlstad/Karlstad at 2.15 provides a slim value play. Avoid the first-half Over 0.5 goals market due to negative value.

Context

Gefle's official schedule page shows a midweek cup match in Falun with a penalty shootout loss.
- The cup fixture was played in the same week as this Saturday league match, leaving limited recovery time.
- Gefle's league form is already poor (1W-1D-3L last 5), and a draining cup exit may compound their struggles.
Karlstad's 12 June preview was headlined 'Serieetta i harmoni – men nu varnar Paul för Gefle', explicitly warning against complacency.
- The team sits top of the table with a 15-point gap over Gefle, a classic setup for a letdown, but the internal messaging counters that risk.
- Henrik Bellman, a Karlstad player, previously played for Gefle, adding a personal edge to the fixture.
Gefle's away record: 1W-1D-4L, 8 goals scored, 14 conceded.
- They conceded 2+ goals in 5 of 6 away league games, including 4 goals conceded twice.
- Karlstad have scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 league matches and average 1.67 goals per home game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IF Karlstad's dominant league form (top of table, 15-point gap) and strong home record contrast sharply with Gefle's relegation struggle and poor away defense, making a home win highly likely despite recent H2H draws.
- IF Karlstad: 8W-2D-1L in league, 26 pts, top of table; last 5 league matches: 4W-1D-0L, 11 goals scored, 2 conceded
- Gefle IF: 3W-2D-6L in league, 13th place; last 5 league matches: 1W-1D-3L, 5 goals scored, 11 conceded
- Home/Away: IF Karlstad home record 4W-1D-1L (10GF, 4GA); Gefle away record 1W-1D-4L (8GF, 14GA)
- H2H last 5: 3 draws, 1 win each; last 2 meetings both ended 1-1 and 2-2 draws
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIF KarlstadEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining IF Karlstad's near-flawless league record with Gefle's poor away form and the historical tendency for draws in this fixture, the probability of the home side avoiding defeat is very high.
- IF Karlstad: only 1 league loss all season; home record 4W-1D-1L
- Gefle IF: away record 1W-1D-4L, conceded 14 in 6 away games
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings ended in draws, including both 2025 encounters
- Motivation: IF Karlstad warned against complacency in official preview, indicating focus
BetBugs · Double ChancewonIF Karlstad or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
IF Karlstad's strong first-half performances recently contrast with Gefle's frequent early deficits, suggesting the home side is likely to be ahead at the break.
- IF Karlstad: led at halftime in 4 of last 5 league matches; overall leading at half time in 36% of matches
- Gefle IF: trailed at halftime in 4 of last 5 league matches; overall trailing at half time in 47% of matches
- Gefle away: trailed at halftime in 4 of 6 away league games
- H2H: IF Karlstad led at halftime in 1 of last 5, with 3 draws and 1 Gefle lead
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonIF KarlstadEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combination of IF Karlstad's habit of leading at halftime and winning, and Gefle's pattern of trailing and losing, supports a home win with the lead established by halftime.
- IF Karlstad: won both halves in 3 of last 5 league matches; led at halftime and won in 4 of those 5
- Gefle IF: lost both halves in 3 of last 5 league matches; trailed at halftime and lost in 4 of those 5
- Home/Away: IF Karlstad home record 4W-1D-1L, often controlling games early
- Motivation: IF Karlstad warned against complacency, likely to start strong
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableIF Karlstad/IF KarlstadEstimated chance48%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals, driven by Gefle's leaky away defense and IF Karlstad's consistent scoring, supporting a high-scoring encounter despite the last H2H being a 1-1 draw.
- IF Karlstad: last 5 league matches averaged 2.2 goals scored; 4 of those 5 saw over 2.5 total goals
- Gefle IF: last 5 league matches averaged 3.2 total goals; 4 of those 5 saw over 2.5 total goals
- Gefle away: conceded 14 in 6 away games (2.33 per game); 5 of 6 away games had over 2.5 total goals
- H2H: last 2 meetings both ended 2-2 and 1-1; 3 of last 5 H2H had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gefle's ability to score on the road combined with IF Karlstad's occasional defensive lapses at home and the strong H2H trend of both teams scoring makes this a likely outcome.
- IF Karlstad: conceded in 4 of last 6 home league games; only 2 clean sheets in last 5 overall
- Gefle IF: scored in 4 of last 5 league away games; only 1 clean sheet in last 10 league matches
- H2H: both teams scored in 4 of last 5 meetings
- Gefle away: 8 goals scored in 6 away games, but conceded 14
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IF Karlstad's home defensive record is not impenetrable, and Gefle's consistent scoring threat away from home, coupled with H2H history, suggests the visitors are likely to find the net.
- IF Karlstad: only 2 clean sheets in last 5 league matches; conceded in 4 of 6 home league games
- Gefle IF: scored in 4 of 6 away league games; only failed to score in 2 of last 10 league matches overall
- H2H: Gefle scored in 4 of last 5 meetings
- Motivation: Gefle fighting relegation, likely to push for a goal
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostGefle IF to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IF Karlstad's strong scoring form at home and Gefle's porous away defense make it highly probable the home side scores at least twice.
- IF Karlstad: scored 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 league matches; home average 1.67 goals per game
- Gefle IF: conceded 2+ goals in 5 of 6 away league games; away average 2.33 goals conceded per game
- H2H: IF Karlstad scored 2 goals in 3 of last 5 meetings
- Form: IF Karlstad scored 5, 2, 1, 2, 3 in last 5 home matches across all competitions
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonIF Karlstad over 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent patterns show a high likelihood of a first-half goal, driven by IF Karlstad's early scoring and Gefle's tendency to concede early, especially away from home.
- IF Karlstad: first-half goals in 4 of last 5 league matches; average 0.7 first-half goals per game overall
- Gefle IF: first-half goals conceded in 4 of last 5 league matches; average 1.2 first-half goals conceded per game overall
- Gefle away: conceded first-half goals in 5 of 6 away league games
- H2H: first-half goals in 4 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of specific corner data, the expected match dynamic of IF Karlstad attacking and Gefle defending deep suggests a higher corner count, though confidence is low due to missing stats.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches; using league averages as proxy
- Ettan Norra average corners per game typically around 9-10 based on historical data
- Match context: IF Karlstad expected to dominate possession and attack, generating corners
- Gefle's defensive pressure likely to concede corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 3D · 2W

D1-1Gefle IFvIF KarlstadSep 21, 2025ETT

D2-2IF KarlstadvGefle IFJun 28, 2025ETT

L3-1Gefle IFvIF KarlstadSep 25, 2022ETT

L2-3IF KarlstadvGefle IFApr 10, 2022ETT

D2-2IF KarlstadvGefle IFOct 31, 2021ETT

Gefle IF unbeaten in 5 meetings3.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Ettan - Norra 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	IF Karlstad Promotion	11	8	2	1	18-6	26	WDWWW
13	Gefle IF Relegation Playoffs	11	3	2	6	15-24	11	LWLDL

15pt gap between teamsIF Karlstad leads the leagueGefle IF in relegation zone

Recent Form

IF Karlstad

W3-0Eker ÖrebroJun 10SVE

W3-2FBK KarlstadJun 5ETT

D0-0SollentunaMay 30ETT

W2-0Umeå FCMay 24ETT

W5-0VasalundMay 17ETT

W1-0StocksundMay 14ETT

D0-0KarlbergMay 9ETT

L0-2Hammarby TalangMay 2ETT

W2-0AFC EskilstunaApr 26ETT

W2-1JärfällaApr 18ETT

W1-0Stockholm InternazionaleApr 12ETT

W2-1PiteåApr 6ETT

L1-3Skövde AIKMar 21FRI

L1-2AFC EskilstunaMar 13FRI

L0-2Varbergs BoIS FCMar 8SVE

Gefle IF

L0-4Hammarby TalangJun 6ETT

W3-2ArlandaJun 1ETT

L0-4JärfällaMay 23ETT

D0-0Assyriska FFMay 17ETT

L0-1VasalundMay 14ETT

D2-2Umeå FCMay 9ETT

W2-1EnköpingMay 2ETT

L2-3KarlbergApr 26ETT

L1-2SollentunaApr 18ETT

W4-3AFC EskilstunaApr 11ETT

L1-2FBK KarlstadApr 3ETT

L0-1IK brageMar 21FRI

W3-2SunnerstaMar 7FRI

L0-4Vasteras SK FKMar 4FRI

L1-2Falu BSFeb 28FRI

Squad & Injuries

IF Karlstad

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Gefle IF

22 available

Attackers5

Midfielders6

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

IF Karlstad at half-time / IF Karlstad at full-time

Over 2.5

Over 1.5

IF Karlstad

IF Karlstad or Draw

Over 0.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

IF Karlstad

Gefle IF

Squad & Injuries

IF Karlstad

Gefle IF