3. DivisionFull time

Predictions graded

Horsholm-Usserod IK0Naesby BK0

Sat 13 Jun 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions1–517%

Edges1–614%

Yellow CardsYellow Cards 0–0Red CardsRed Cards 0–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jun 2026, 23:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Naesby BK are strong favorites to win away at a Horsholm-Usserod IK side in disarray following a coaching change and three straight heavy defeats.

The best value lies in backing Naesby on the 1X2 (65% estimated vs. 54% implied) and double chance (85% vs. 67%), while over 3.5 goals offers a solid edge. Avoid short odds on over 0.5 first-half goals and BTTS Yes, where market pricing underestimates the impact of HUI's instability.

Context

HUI's official website carries the headline 'Christian Mouroux stopper som cheftræner for 3. div' as of 12 June 2026.
- The current squad page still lists Mouroux and Thomas Loran as coaches, indicating the transition is active and unresolved.
- No replacement has been named, leaving the team without settled leadership on matchday.
HUI lost 0-5 at Naesby on 9 May, 0-4 at Nykobing on 17 May, and 2-3 at home to Brønshøj on 22 May.
- They have conceded 12 goals in their last three matches, an average of 4.0 per game.
- Only one win in their last five home matches (W1 D1 L3) underlines their poor venue form.
Naesby beat HUI 4-1 on 28 March 2026 and 5-0 on 9 May 2026, both at Naesby's ground.
- The only H2H at HUI's venue this season ended 1-1 in August 2025, but Naesby have since improved significantly.
- Naesby scored four or more goals in both wins, exploiting HUI's defensive weaknesses.
Naesby's last five results: W5-0 vs HUI, W4-1 vs Brønshøj, W2-0 at Vanløse, L2-3 at Nykobing, W1-0 vs FA 2000.
- They scored 14 goals in those five games, averaging 2.8 per match.
- Naesby are third in the promotion round with 50 points, while HUI are sixth with 33 points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Naesby BK's dominant recent H2H record and superior form, combined with Horsholm-Usserod IK's poor defensive run and coaching instability, make an away win highly likely.
- Naesby BK won the last two H2H meetings 5-0 and 4-1, both at home, in March and May 2026.
- Horsholm-Usserod IK have lost their last 3 matches, conceding 12 goals (0-5, 0-4, 2-3).
- Naesby BK have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 14 goals in that span.
- Horsholm-Usserod IK are 6th in the promotion round with 33 points from 31 games; Naesby BK are 3rd with 50 points.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNaesby BKEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Horsholm-Usserod IK's home struggles and off-field instability make a home win unlikely, while Naesby BK's strong away form and H2H dominance support a double chance away/draw.
- Horsholm-Usserod IK have won only 1 of their last 5 home matches (W1 D1 L3).
- Naesby BK have lost only 1 of their last 5 away matches (W3 D1 L1).
- The last H2H at Horsholm-Usserod IK ended 1-1 in August 2025.
- Horsholm-Usserod IK are undergoing a coaching transition announced the day before the match.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Naesby BKEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Naesby BK's superior first-half performance metrics and Horsholm-Usserod IK's slow starts point to an away lead at the break.
- Naesby BK led at halftime in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Horsholm-Usserod IK trailed at halftime in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Naesby BK have a 33% leading-at-half-time rate this season vs Horsholm-Usserod IK's 13%.
- The last H2H saw Naesby BK lead 1-0 at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half Winnernot gradableNaesby BKEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Naesby BK's ability to start strong and maintain control, combined with Horsholm-Usserod IK's poor first halves, makes a HT/FT double plausible.
- Naesby BK led at halftime and won full-time in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Horsholm-Usserod IK trailed at halftime and lost full-time in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- The last H2H saw Naesby BK lead at halftime and win full-time.
- Naesby BK have a 33% HT lead rate and 65% win rate in recent form.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableNaesby BK / Naesby BKEstimated chance50%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and H2H history show a clear trend toward high-scoring games, driven by Naesby BK's attacking output and Horsholm-Usserod IK's defensive frailties.
- The last two H2H meetings produced 5 and 5 goals (5-0, 4-1).
- Naesby BK's last 5 matches averaged 3.8 total goals (19 goals in 5 games).
- Horsholm-Usserod IK's last 5 matches averaged 3.6 total goals (18 goals in 5 games).
- Naesby BK have scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Naesby BK's clean sheets in recent H2H, Horsholm-Usserod IK's ability to score at home and Naesby BK's occasional away defensive lapses suggest both teams can find the net.
- Horsholm-Usserod IK have scored in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Naesby BK have conceded in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- The last H2H at this venue ended 1-1.
- Horsholm-Usserod IK average 1.1 goals per game overall this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Naesby BK's consistent early scoring and Horsholm-Usserod IK's tendency to concede early make a first-half goal likely.
- Naesby BK have scored a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Horsholm-Usserod IK have conceded a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- The last two H2H meetings saw first-half goals (1 and 1).
- Naesby BK average 0.7 first-half goals per game this season.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The pattern of high-scoring second halves in both teams' recent matches and H2H history supports over 1.5 goals after the break.
- Naesby BK's last 5 matches averaged 2.2 second-half goals (11 in 5 games).
- Horsholm-Usserod IK's last 5 matches averaged 2.0 second-half goals (10 in 5 games).
- The last two H2H meetings had 4 and 3 second-half goals.
- Both teams tend to concede more in the second half: Horsholm-Usserod IK 1.5, Naesby BK 0.6 goals against on average in second halves this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of direct corner data, the expected open, attacking nature of the game and Naesby BK's dominance imply a higher corner count, though confidence is low due to missing stats.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided stats.
- High-scoring matches often correlate with increased corner counts.
- Naesby BK's attacking style (2.2 goals per game) suggests sustained pressure and corners.
- Horsholm-Usserod IK's defensive struggles (2.1 goals conceded per game) may lead to more opposition corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 2W

L5-0NæsbyvHørsholm-UsserødMay 9, 20263.

L4-1NæsbyvHørsholm-UsserødMar 28, 20263.

D1-1Hørsholm-UsserødvNæsbyAug 30, 20253.

Naesby BK unbeaten in 3 meetings4 goals/game avg

League Table

3. Division 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Horsholm-Usserod IK Promotion round	22	8	5	9	38-38	29	WDLLL
3	Naesby BK Promotion round	22	10	3	9	40-39	33	WLWWW

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form