Ettan - NorraFull time

Predictions graded

Umea FC2Pitea IF0

HT 2–0Fri 12 Jun 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Jun 2026, 17:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Umea FC's strong home H2H record against Pitea IF (three straight clean-sheet wins) makes them favorites, but their modest current form and the short odds on a home win (1.50) offer no value.

The double chance (Umea or Draw) is highly probable but priced out at 1.17. Goals are likely, with both teams scoring a near-fair bet at 1.62, while the handicap market (Umea -1) is a clear avoid due to their narrow winning margins.

Context

Umea beat Pitea 3-0 at home in August 2024 in the league.
- Umea won 3-0 and 4-0 in home friendlies in 2025 and 2026.
- Pitea have not scored in any of those three visits.
Pitea have conceded 19 goals in their last 10 league matches (1.9 per game).
- The only clean sheet came in a 0-0 draw away at Järfälla on 26 April.
- Umea have scored in four of their last five home league games.
Pitea have trailed at half-time in 8 of 14 league matches this season.
- They conceded first-half goals in four of their last five away games.
- Umea have led at half-time in only 27% of matches, but Pitea's early fragility gives them a chance.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Umea FC or Draw

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

Umea FC are unbeaten at home vs Pitea IF in the last 5 H2H (4W-1D) with three clean sheets, and Pitea have never won away in this fixture.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Umea FC

1.49fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 67%

0.0ppshort

Umea FC's strong H2H psychology at home, where they've kept three consecutive clean sheets against Pitea IF, gives the hosts a clear edge.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches show a trend towards higher-scoring games, with Pitea's leaky defense (1.9 goals conceded per game overall) and Umea's decent attack at home pointing to at least three goals.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Pitea IF's tendency to concede early (trailing at half time in over half their matches) and Umea's capability to score in the first half at home make a first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Umea FC's strong H2H psychology at home, where they've kept three consecutive clean sheets against Pitea IF, combined with Pitea's relegation struggles and poor defensive form, gives the hosts a clear edge.
- Umea FC home record: 1W-2D-2L (5 matches), 6 goals scored, 8 conceded
- Pitea IF away record: 2W-1D-2L (5 matches), 8 goals scored, 8 conceded
- H2H last 5: Umea FC 3 wins, Pitea IF 1 win, 1 draw; Umea FC won last 3 H2H at home with clean sheets
- Pitea IF last 5 league matches: 1W-2D-2L, conceded 9 goals
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonUmea FCEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Umea FC's resilience at home (only 2 losses) and Pitea IF's historical inability to win away in this fixture make a home win or draw highly probable.
- Umea FC home record: 1W-2D-2L, only 2 losses in 5 home games
- Pitea IF away record: 2W-1D-2L, but overall league form is 2W-2D-7L
- H2H: Pitea IF has never won away at Umea FC in last 5 meetings (3 losses, 1 draw)
- Umea FC last 5 overall: 1W-3D-1L, hard to beat
BetBugs · Double ChancewonUmea FC or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Umea FC's first-half home record isn't dominant, Pitea IF's poor first-half performances away (trailing in 60% of away games) give the hosts a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Umea FC led at half time in 1 of 5 home matches
- Pitea IF trailed at half time in 3 of 5 away matches
- Umea FC first half goals at home: 0.4 per game
- Pitea IF first half goals conceded away: 1.2 per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonUmea FCEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time is plausible given both teams' first-half records, and Umea FC's stronger second-half showing at home could lead to a full-time win, though the specific sequence is low probability.
- Umea FC drew at half time in 3 of 5 home matches, but won only 1 of those
- Pitea IF drew at half time in 1 of 5 away matches, but lost 2 of those
- Umea FC second half performance at home: +0.2 goal difference
- Pitea IF second half performance away: -0.4 goal difference
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/Umea FCEstimated chance20%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches show a trend towards higher-scoring games, with Pitea's leaky defense (1.9 goals conceded per game overall) and Umea's decent attack at home pointing to at least three goals.
- Umea FC home matches average 2.8 total goals (14 goals in 5 games)
- Pitea IF away matches average 3.2 total goals (16 goals in 5 games)
- Pitea IF last 5 league matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
- Umea FC last 5 league matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent ability to score on the road/home respectively, while also displaying defensive vulnerabilities, making it likely each finds the net.
- Umea FC scored in 4 of last 5 home matches
- Pitea IF scored in 4 of last 5 away matches
- Pitea IF conceded in 9 of last 10 league matches
- Umea FC conceded in 4 of last 5 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Umea FC's home defensive record is poor, and Pitea IF has been relatively effective at scoring on their travels, suggesting the hosts are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- Umea FC kept only 1 clean sheet in last 5 home matches
- Pitea IF failed to score in only 1 of last 5 away matches
- Umea FC conceded 8 goals in 5 home games this season
- Pitea IF scored 8 goals in 5 away games this season
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostPitea IF to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pitea IF's tendency to concede early (trailing at half time in over half their matches) and Umea's capability to score in the first half at home make a first-half goal likely.
- Umea FC first half goals: 0.4 per game overall, but scored in first half in 2 of last 5 home matches
- Pitea IF first half goals conceded: 1.0 per game overall, conceded in first half in 4 of last 5 away matches
- Pitea IF trailing at half time in 57% of matches this season
- Umea FC leading at half time in 27% of matches, but at home they led in 1 of 5
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to be more open in matches involving these teams, with Umea scoring late at home and Pitea conceding regularly after the break, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Umea FC second half goals at home: 0.8 per game (4 goals in 5 matches)
- Pitea IF second half goals conceded away: 1.0 per game (5 goals in 5 matches)
- Combined second half average: 1.8 goals per match in Umea home games and Pitea away games
- Pitea IF overall second half goals conceded: 1.1 per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
In the absence of specific corner data, the league average and the attacking intent of both teams (evidenced by goals) suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 8.5 corners, though confidence is low due to missing stats.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- Ettan Norra average corners per game: approximately 9.2 (league-wide estimate)
- Umea FC and Pitea IF matches typically involve attacking play with shots, suggesting corner potential
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 4W

L1-0PiteåvUmeå FCMar 28, 2026FRI

L4-0Umeå FCvPiteåFeb 21, 2026FRI

L3-0Umeå FCvPiteåMar 23, 2025FRI

L3-0Umeå FCvPiteåAug 24, 2024ETT

D0-0PiteåvUmeå FCMay 31, 2024ETT

Pitea IF unbeaten in 5 meetingsPitea IF: 5 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Ettan - Norra 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Umea FC	11	3	4	4	16-18	13	DDLDW
15	Pitea IF Relegation	11	2	2	7	13-25	8	LDDWL

5pt gap between teamsPitea IF in relegation zone

Recent Form

Umea FC

D1-1SollentunaJun 7ETT

D2-2StocksundMay 31ETT

L0-2IF KarlstadMay 24ETT

D1-1FBK KarlstadMay 17ETT

W5-1Assyriska FFMay 14ETT

D2-2Gefle IFMay 9ETT

W2-1KarlbergMay 3ETT

L0-3Stockholm InternazionaleApr 26ETT

L1-3VasalundApr 19ETT

L0-1ArlandaApr 12ETT

W2-1Hammarby TalangApr 6ETT

L0-1PiteåMar 28FRI

W1-0Ostersunds FKMar 21FRI

L1-2VPSMar 8FRI

W5-0SkellefteåFeb 28FRI

Pitea IF

L0-2EnköpingJun 7ETT

W3-2Ostra ErsbodaJun 3SVE

D2-2Stockholm InternazionaleMay 31ETT

D2-2SollentunaMay 24ETT

W3-2StocksundMay 17ETT

L1-5FBK KarlstadMay 14ETT

W2-1VasalundMay 10ETT

L1-2ArlandaMay 3ETT

L0-1JärfällaApr 26ETT

L1-4Hammarby TalangApr 19ETT

L0-2Assyriska FFApr 12ETT

L1-2IF KarlstadApr 6ETT

W1-0Umeå FCMar 28FRI

W2-1StocksundMar 22FRI

W2-0IFK UmeåMar 15FRI

Squad & Injuries

Umea FC

25 available

Attackers7

Midfielders7

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Pitea IF

23 available

Attackers7

Midfielders5

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Umea FC or Draw

Umea FC

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Umea FC

Over 1.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Umea FC

Pitea IF

Squad & Injuries

Umea FC

Pitea IF