Premier DivisionFull time

Predictions graded

Derry City4Bohemians1

HT 1–1Fri 12 Jun 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 15–10On targetOn target 7–2CornersCorners 6–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Jun 2026, 01:10 · Europe/Bucharest

A tight, low-scoring match is expected at the Brandywell, with Derry’s draw-heavy home form and a historically cagey H2H pointing to Under 2.5 goals (72% model probability, 12-point edge) and a possible stalemate (38% draw chance, 7-point edge).

Avoid backing Bohemians to win or cover a handicap, as the market overestimates their ability to break Derry’s resilience.

Context

Lynch said on 20 March the old artificial surface was being replaced by grass for the summer and it should make a big difference to how his side play.
- The 12 June fixture is officially back at the Brandywell after a spell at Celtic Park, so previous home results on the old surface may not reflect current conditions.
- Derry’s possession-based approach (55% average) could benefit from a truer grass pitch, potentially altering the low-scoring pattern seen in earlier home matches.
Bohemians announced on 21 May that Devoy had earned a senior Ireland call-up, a significant individual achievement.
- Reynolds framed the period as exciting with major games and a European draw ahead, signaling internal positivity rather than distraction.
- Bohemians are second in the table and in strong form (3 wins in last 5), suggesting the good mood is translating into performances.
Derry’s last 5 results: 0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss, with only 3 goals scored in that run.
- They have drawn 10 of 20 league matches this season, the highest draw rate in the division.
- At home, Derry have drawn 5 of 10, often failing to break down opponents despite decent possession (55% average).
Last 6 H2H results: 1-1, 1-0, 4-3, 1-1, 1-0, 1-0 – five of six had under 2.5 goals.
- The only high-scoring outlier was a 4-3 thriller in September 2025, which broke a long sequence of low-margin results.
- At Derry’s ground, the last two meetings were 1-0 Bohemians and 1-1, continuing the trend of tight contests.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Derry's draw-heavy profile (50% of all matches) and tight H2H history, combined with Bohemians' slightly stronger form but vulnerability away from home, make a stalemate the most likely single outcome.
- Derry City have drawn 10 of 20 league matches this season, including 5 of 10 at home.
- Bohemians have drawn 7 of 20, with 5 of 10 home draws but only 2 away draws.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws, 2 Bohemians wins, 1 Derry win; 4 of 5 had ≤2 total goals.
- Derry's last 5 form: 0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss; Bohemians' last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Derry's strong home resilience (80% unbeaten) and Bohemians' occasional away slip-ups against competitive sides support a low-risk double chance on the hosts avoiding defeat.
- Derry have lost only 2 of 10 home matches this season (3W, 5D).
- Bohemians have lost only 2 of 10 away matches (6W, 2D), but those losses came against top-half sides.
- H2H at Derry's home: last 2 meetings were 1-0 Bohemians and 1-1 draw; Derry have not lost by more than 1 goal at home to Bohemians in recent years.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDerry City or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Derry's cautious starts and Bohemians' tendency to draw at halftime (40% of matches) points to a level scoreline at the break.
- Derry's halftime results: 40% lead, 27% trail, 33% draw over last 15 matches.
- Bohemians' halftime results: 27% lead, 33% trail, 40% draw over last 15 matches.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 draws at halftime, 1 Bohemians lead.
- Derry's home first-half record: 0.5 goals scored, 0.4 conceded; Bohemians away: 0.5 scored, 0.6 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A halftime draw followed by a full-time draw is a plausible sequence given both teams' tendencies, but the specific combination is inherently low-probability, warranting only low confidence.
- Derry have drawn 10 of 20 matches overall; 5 of those were 0-0 or 1-1 at halftime.
- Bohemians have drawn 7 of 20; 4 of those were level at halftime.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws, both were 1-1 with one being 0-0 at halftime and the other 1-1 at halftime.
- Derry's home draws: 5 matches, 3 were draws at halftime.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent scoring rates and the historically low-scoring H2H pattern strongly point to a tight, low-event match, making under 2.5 goals highly probable.
- Derry's last 15 matches: 0.9 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game; 11 of 15 had under 2.5 goals.
- Bohemians' last 15 matches: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded; 8 of 15 had under 2.5 goals.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 matches had under 2.5 goals; the only exception was a 4-3 thriller.
- Derry home matches average 2.4 total goals; Bohemians away matches average 2.7 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Derry's offensive struggles (0.9 goals/game) and the frequency of clean sheets in this fixture suggest at least one team will fail to score, likely the hosts.
- Derry failed to score in 5 of their last 15 matches; Bohemians failed to score in 3 of their last 15.
- In Derry's 10 home matches, both teams scored only 4 times (40%).
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in only 2 matches; 3 matches saw one side blanked.
- Derry average 0.9 goals per game overall; Bohemians concede 1.3 per game but keep clean sheets in 27% of away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' low first-half scoring rates and the H2H trend of goalless or single-goal first halves make under 1.5 first-half goals a very safe prediction.
- Derry average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Bohemians average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Last 5 H2H: first-half goals: 0, 0, 1, 0, 0 (only one match had a first-half goal).
- Derry led at halftime in only 40% of matches; Bohemians led in 27%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
While Bohemians have slightly more second-half threat, the overall low-scoring nature of this fixture and Derry's defensive solidity at home suggest the second half will also be tight, with under 1.5 goals likely.
- Derry's second-half goals: 0.4 on average (0.9 total - 0.5 first half).
- Bohemians' second-half goals: 1.0 on average (1.5 total - 0.5 first half).
- Last 5 H2H: second-half goals: 2, 1, 6, 1, 1 (excluding the 4-3 outlier, all had ≤1 second-half goal).
- Derry home matches average 1.1 second-half goals; Bohemians away matches average 1.4.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a healthy number of corners, and their combined averages hover around 10 per match, making over 9.5 corners a reasonable expectation in a match likely to feature sustained attacking phases.
- Derry average 5.5 corners per match overall; Bohemians average 6.4 corners per match.
- Derry home matches average 5.8 corners for, 4.2 against = 10.0 total.
- Bohemians away matches average 6.1 corners for, 3.8 against = 9.9 total.
- Last 5 H2H: total corners: 10, 7, 7, 11, 8 (average 8.6, but recent trend higher).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Derry's higher disciplinary count (3.2 yellows/game) and the competitive, tight nature of this fixture historically produce a moderate card count, pushing the total over 4.5 cards.
- Derry average 3.2 yellow cards per match over last 15; Bohemians average 1.8.
- Derry home matches: 3.1 yellows for, 2.2 against = 5.3 total cards.
- Bohemians away matches: 1.7 yellows for, 2.4 against = 4.1 total cards.
- Last 5 H2H: total cards (yellows+reds): 8, 5, 3, 7, 4 (average 5.4).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance62%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D1-1BohemiansvDerry CityMay 1, 2026PRE

L0-1Derry CityvBohemiansFeb 20, 2026PRE

W3-4BohemiansvDerry CitySep 12, 2025PRE

D1-1Derry CityvBohemiansJul 25, 2025PRE

L1-0BohemiansvDerry CityMay 30, 2025PRE

Bohemians: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier Division 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Derry City	20	4	10	6	22-23	22	LDDDL
2	Bohemians Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	20	9	7	4	31-21	34	WLWWW

12pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Derry City

L1-2DundalkMay 29PRE

D0-0ShelbourneMay 25PRE

D0-0St Patrick's Athl.May 22PRE

D2-2WaterfordMay 15PRE

L0-1Drogheda UnitedMay 8PRE

D1-1Galway UnitedMay 4PRE

D1-1BohemiansMay 1PRE

W1-0Shamrock RoversApr 24PRE

W2-1ShelbourneApr 17PRE

D2-2DundalkApr 10PRE

D0-0Sligo RoversApr 6PRE

L1-2Galway UnitedApr 3PRE

D2-2Drogheda UnitedMar 20PRE

D0-0St Patrick's Athl.Mar 16PRE

L1-2ShelbourneMar 13PRE

Bohemians

W3-1Sligo RoversMay 29PRE

L1-2Shamrock RoversMay 25PRE

W4-2Galway UnitedMay 22PRE

W2-1Drogheda UnitedMay 15PRE

W3-1DundalkMay 8PRE

D2-2ShelbourneMay 4PRE

D1-1Derry CityMay 1PRE

L1-3St Patrick's Athl.Apr 24PRE

L1-2Shamrock RoversApr 17PRE

L1-2Sligo RoversApr 10PRE

D1-1WaterfordApr 6PRE

D0-0Drogheda UnitedApr 3PRE

D1-1DundalkMar 20PRE

D0-0ShelbourneMar 16PRE

W1-0Galway UnitedMar 13PRE

Squad & Injuries

Derry City

28 available

Attackers5

Midfielders12

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Bohemians

24 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Derry City or Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Bohemians

Over 9.5

Over 4.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Derry City

Bohemians

Squad & Injuries

Derry City

Bohemians