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Predictions graded

US Yacoub El Mansour1Cod Meknes1

HT 0–0Tue 9 Jun 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–271%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Jun 2026, 23:32 · Europe/Bucharest

A relegation-threatened US Yacoub El Mansour host a mid-table COD Meknes side under a new caretaker coach, setting up a cautious, low-scoring affair.

The standout betting edge is first-half under 0.5 goals at 2.38, with our 55% probability estimate well above the implied 42%. Most other markets are efficiently priced, with no value in the draw, under 2.5 goals, or double chance.

Context

US Yacoub El Mansour are 15th on 16 points after 22 matches, one point behind 14th and two behind the relegation-playoff line.
- The intel confirms this is a live relegation match, not a dead rubber, which historically boosts home resilience.
- They have drawn three of their last five home matches, showing they can grind out results when needed.
The season page lists Abdelaziz Dnibi as sacked on 25 May 2026, with Mohamed Aziz installed as caretaker the same day.
- COD Meknes come into this match less than two weeks into a fresh bench setup.
- Their away record is poor (1W-4D-5L), and the coaching instability could further disrupt their rhythm.
COD Meknes have scored just 4 goals in 10 away matches, averaging 0.4 per game.
- They have failed to score in 6 of their last 15 matches overall, including 3 of the last 5 away.
- Their away matches average only 1.7 total goals, with 7 of 10 staying under 2.5 goals.
COD Meknes have scored 0 first-half goals in 7 of their 10 away matches this season.
- US Yacoub El Mansour have been goalless at halftime in 5 of their last 15 matches overall.
- The only recent H2H meeting ended 0-0 at halftime.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

US Yacoub El Mansour or Draw

1.28fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 78%

0.0ppshort

Cod Meknes's poor away form (1 win in 10) combined with US Yacoub El Mansour's survival motivation makes a home win or draw the most probable double-chance outcome.

1 St Half Resultnot gradableUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

1.92fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 52%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to start cautiously, with Cod Meknes especially prone to first-half draws away from home, and the high-pressure context likely encourages a cagey opening period.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Cod Meknes' defensive solidity on the road (only 13 conceded in 10 away games) and the low-scoring nature of their recent matches suggest a tight, low-goal affair, reinforced by the high-stakes context.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.50fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

As the match progresses and urgency increases, especially for the home side, the likelihood of a second-half goal rises significantly, supported by both teams' second-half scoring/conceding patterns.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates in relevant splits (home for US Yacoub El Mansour, away for Cod Meknes), and the home side's survival urgency may lead to a cautious approach against a defensively solid away team, making a stalemate likely.
- US Yacoub El Mansour home record: 2W-3D-6L in 11 Botola Pro matches this season, with 3 draws in last 5 home games.
- Cod Meknes away record: 1W-4D-5L in 10 away matches, with 4 draws in last 5 away games.
- Last 5 H2H: only 1 recent meeting, a 1-0 Cod Meknes win, but sample too small to draw strong conclusions.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cod Meknes's poor away form (1 win in 10) combined with US Yacoub El Mansour's survival motivation makes a home win or draw the most probable double-chance outcome.
- US Yacoub El Mansour have lost only 6 of 11 home matches this season, with 5 draws/wins.
- Cod Meknes have won only 1 of 10 away matches, with 9 draws/losses.
- Home side is under immediate relegation pressure (15th, 16 points), which historically boosts home resilience.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonUS Yacoub El Mansour or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, with Cod Meknes especially prone to first-half draws away from home, and the high-pressure context likely encourages a cagey opening period.
- US Yacoub El Mansour have been drawing at halftime in 4 of their last 15 matches, with 8 losses and 3 wins.
- Cod Meknes have been drawing at halftime in 8 of their last 15 matches, with 4 losses and 3 wins.
- Cod Meknes away first halves: 5 draws in last 10 away matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a full draw is a reasonable outcome, the specific sequence of a first-half draw followed by a fulltime draw is less common, but the cautious nature of both sides in early stages supports this low-probability pick.
- US Yacoub El Mansour have drawn at halftime and fulltime in 2 of 11 home matches.
- Cod Meknes have drawn at halftime and fulltime in 3 of 10 away matches.
- Combined probability of a first-half draw and fulltime draw is low but plausible given both teams' tendencies.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cod Meknes's defensive solidity on the road (only 13 conceded in 10 away games) and the low-scoring nature of their recent matches suggest a tight, low-goal affair, reinforced by the high-stakes context.
- Cod Meknes away matches average 1.7 total goals (4 scored, 13 conceded in 10 games).
- US Yacoub El Mansour home matches average 2.8 total goals, but 7 of 11 home games had under 2.5 goals.
- Last H2H ended 1-0, and Cod Meknes have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 15 overall.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cod Meknes's strong defensive record away from home and their ability to shut out opponents, combined with the home side's inconsistent attack, make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Cod Meknes have failed to score in 6 of their last 15 matches, including 3 of last 5 away.
- US Yacoub El Mansour have scored in 9 of 11 home matches, but Cod Meknes have kept 5 clean sheets in last 15.
- Last H2H: Cod Meknes kept a clean sheet against US Yacoub El Mansour.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cod Meknes's extremely low first-half scoring output (0.2 goals per game) and the home side's moderate first-half production make a goalless first half highly probable.
- US Yacoub El Mansour first-half goals: 0.5 per game on average, with 0 first-half goals in 5 of last 15.
- Cod Meknes first-half goals: 0.2 per game on average, with 0 first-half goals in 10 of last 15.
- Cod Meknes away first halves: 0 goals scored in 7 of 10 away matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
As the match progresses and urgency increases, especially for the home side, the likelihood of a second-half goal rises significantly, supported by both teams' second-half scoring/conceding patterns.
- US Yacoub El Mansour have scored in the second half in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Cod Meknes have conceded in the second half in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- Overall, 73% of US Yacoub El Mansour's home goals and 69% of Cod Meknes's away goals conceded come in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of specific corner data, the expected low-event nature of the match (low goals, cautious play) suggests a below-average corner count, though confidence is low due to missing stats.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided dataset, but Botola Pro averages around 8.5 corners per match.
- Low-scoring, defensive matches tend to produce fewer corners, and this fixture profiles as such.
- Cod Meknes's away matches likely feature fewer attacking actions, reducing corner counts.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The motivational asymmetry and relegation pressure on the home side are likely to increase match tension and fouls, making a higher card count probable, though confidence is limited without historical card data.
- Card data is unavailable, but high-stakes relegation matches often see increased disciplinary actions.
- US Yacoub El Mansour's survival pressure may lead to aggressive play, raising foul and card counts.
- Botola Pro averages around 3.5-4 cards per match, and this fixture's intensity could push it over.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 1W

L1-0CODM MeknèsvYacoub El MansourNov 8, 2025BOT

1 goals/game avg

League Table

Botola Pro 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	US Yacoub El Mansour Relegation	22	3	7	12	23-35	16	LLWDD
7	Cod Meknes	22	8	6	8	15-20	30	WLLLD

14pt gap between teamsUS Yacoub El Mansour in relegation zone

Recent Form

US Yacoub El Mansour

L1-2CR Khemis ZemamraJun 3BOT

L1-2UTS RabatMay 23BOT

W1-0Maghreb FèsMay 17CUP

W2-1Kawkab MarrakechMay 11BOT

D1-1Olympique DcheïraMay 8BOT

D1-1Renaissance BerkaneMay 4BOT

W2-1Wydad ACApr 29BOT

D2-2FAR RabatApr 26BOT

L1-3Olympique SafiApr 4BOT

L1-3FUS RabatMar 6BOT

L1-2Difaa EL JadidaFeb 28BOT

L1-2Maghreb FèsFeb 20BOT

D0-0Raja CasablancaFeb 13BOT

L0-2Hassania AgadirJan 31BOT

L1-2Ittihad TangerJan 24BOT

Cod Meknes

W2-1Olympique DcheïraJun 1BOT

L1-3Kawkab MarrakechMay 22BOT

W2-0Chabab Atl. KhenifraMay 17CUP

L0-1Renaissance BerkaneMay 10BOT

L0-2Wydad ACMay 6BOT

D0-0Maghreb FèsMay 2BOT

L0-1FUS RabatApr 29BOT

L0-1Difaa EL JadidaApr 25BOT

W1-0Ittihad TangerMar 6BOT

L0-3FAR RabatFeb 27BOT

W1-0Olympique SafiFeb 20BOT

D0-0Hassania AgadirFeb 15BOT

W1-0Raja CasablancaFeb 8BOT

D1-1UTS RabatJan 31BOT

W2-1CR Khemis ZemamraJan 25BOT

Squad & Injuries

US Yacoub El Mansour

28 available

Attackers8

Midfielders11

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

Cod Meknes

29 available

Attackers7

Midfielders14

Defenders5

Goalkeeper3

US Yacoub El Mansour1Cod Meknes1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 0.5

US Yacoub El Mansour or Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

No

Over 0.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

US Yacoub El Mansour

Over 2.5

Yes

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

US Yacoub El Mansour

Cod Meknes

Squad & Injuries

US Yacoub El Mansour

Cod Meknes