Premier DivisionFull time

Predictions graded

Sligo Rovers1Bohemians3

HT 0–1Fri 29 May 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 34%–66%ShotsShots 7–20On targetOn target 3–6CornersCorners 2–12

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 May 2026, 18:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Sligo Rovers or Draw at 1.95—our model gives a 60% probability, boosted by Bohemians' short turnaround from an emotional derby and Sligo's morale-boosting win at Shamrock Rovers.

The cards over 3.5 at 3.40 is the standout value bet, with a 30-point edge driven by consistent disciplinary trends in this fixture.

Context

Bohemians play Shamrock Rovers on 25 May, just four days before this trip.
- The club preview labelled it the last Dublin derby at Dalymount before redevelopment, adding emotional weight.
- Manager Alan Reynolds said the derby is title-relevant, with Bohs three points off the lead before that match.
- Short rest and travel after such a fixture often leads to fatigue or rotation.
Sligo won 2-1 at Shamrock Rovers on 22 May, the first league side to do so this season.
- Manager John Russell praised the team's 'fearless' display after a heavy derby loss to Galway.
- The win moved Sligo within two points of sixth and nine clear of the bottom.
- Sligo have lost only four of nine home games this season despite scoring just eight goals.
Bohemians have won their last three league matches, scoring 4, 2, and 3 goals.
- Manager Alan Reynolds said the returns of Rooney and James-Taylor have spread the scoring burden.
- Captain Dawson Devoy is available for this match before joining Ireland duty next weekend.
- Bohs had struggled for goals earlier in the season but now have multiple scorers in form.
Bohemians won 4-0 at Sligo on 14 February 2026.
- Sligo won 2-1 at Bohemians on 10 April 2026.
- The last three H2H meetings at Sligo: 0-0, 4-0 Bohemians, 2-1 Sligo.
- No team has won consecutive H2H matches this season.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bohemians are in better form and have a strong away record, but Sligo's recent morale-boosting win at Shamrock Rovers and the emotional derby fatigue for Bohemians suggest a tight contest likely to end level.
- Sligo Rovers home record: 3W-2D-4L, only 8 goals scored in 9 home games.
- Bohemians away record: 5W-2D-2L, 15 goals scored in 9 away games.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws, 2 away wins, 1 home win – no clear home dominance.
- Sligo's last 5 form: W-L-D-D-L (5 points), Bohemians' last 5: W-W-W-D-D (11 points).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sligo's home resilience combined with Bohemians' potential fatigue from a high-emotion derby just days earlier makes a home win or draw a solid outcome, supported by Sligo's recent upset win and Bohemians' occasional away draws.
- Sligo Rovers have lost only 4 of 9 home games this season.
- Bohemians have drawn 2 of their last 5 away games.
- H2H at Sligo: last 3 meetings – 0-0, 4-0 Bohemians, 2-1 Sligo – mixed results.
- Sligo's home defensive record: 13 goals conceded in 9 games, but kept 2 clean sheets in last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSligo Rovers or DrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of drawing at halftime, and the H2H record shows a pattern of level scores at the break, making a halftime draw the most likely outcome.
- Sligo Rovers lead at halftime in only 20% of matches, Bohemians in 27%.
- Sligo trail at halftime in 40% of matches, Bohemians in 33%.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws at halftime.
- Sligo's last 5 home games: 3 draws at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bohemians' superior second-half performance and Sligo's tendency to fade after halftime give Bohemians a slight edge to win the second period, though the overall match result may still be a draw.
- Bohemians have a better second-half goal difference (+0.4) than Sligo (-0.1).
- Bohemians have won the second half in 4 of their last 6 away games.
- Sligo have lost the second half in 3 of their last 5 home games.
- H2H: Bohemians won the second half in their last away meeting (4-0 win).
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableBohemiansEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both halftime and fulltime is a plausible but not highly likely scenario given the competitive balance and recent form, with both teams capable of canceling each other out.
- Sligo Rovers have drawn at halftime and fulltime in 2 of their last 5 home games.
- Bohemians have drawn at halftime and fulltime in 1 of their last 5 away games.
- Last 5 H2H: 1 match ended in a halftime draw and fulltime draw.
- Both teams have a moderate draw rate: Sligo 22%, Bohemians 39%.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates, and Sligo's low home goal output combined with Bohemians' solid but not explosive away attack points to a low-scoring affair, reinforced by recent H2H trends.
- Sligo Rovers average 0.9 goals per game overall, 0.89 at home.
- Bohemians average 1.5 goals per game overall, 1.67 away, but Sligo concede only 1.2 per game.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 matches had under 2.5 goals.
- Sligo's last 5 home games: 3 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sligo's home scoring consistency and Bohemians' strong away scoring record make it likely both teams find the net, especially given the open nature of recent H2H encounters.
- Sligo Rovers have scored in 7 of their last 10 home games.
- Bohemians have scored in 8 of their last 9 away games.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 3 H2H meetings.
- Sligo's last 5 home games: both teams scored in 3.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and a history of tight opening periods in H2H matches, making a low-scoring first half probable.
- Sligo Rovers average 0.5 first-half goals per game, Bohemians also 0.5.
- Sligo concede 0.7 first-half goals, Bohemians concede 0.6.
- Last 5 H2H: only 1 match had over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Sligo's last 5 home games: 4 had under 1.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While overall scoring is moderate, Bohemians' tendency to score more in the second half and the potential for fatigue to open up the game later on suggests a slightly higher chance of second-half goals, though confidence is low due to Sligo's defensive focus.
- Sligo Rovers score 0.4 second-half goals on average, Bohemians 1.0.
- Sligo concede 0.5 second-half goals, Bohemians concede 0.6.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 matches had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Bohemians' last 5 away games: 3 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, especially Bohemians, and recent H2H matches have seen totals near or above 9.5, making over 9.5 corners a strong possibility.
- Sligo Rovers average 4.3 corners per game, Bohemians average 6.2.
- Combined average corners per game: 10.5.
- Last 5 H2H: total corners were 7, 9, 8, 11, 12 – average 9.4.
- Bohemians' last 5 away games: average 6.8 corners for, 4.6 against – total 11.4.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The disciplinary records of both teams and the competitive nature of this fixture, with potential for tactical fouls, suggest a total cards count exceeding 3.5 is likely.
- Sligo Rovers average 1.7 yellow cards per game, Bohemians also 1.7.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.4, plus occasional red cards (0.3 each).
- Last 5 H2H: total cards were 4, 3, 5, 4, 6 – average 4.4.
- Bohemians' last 5 away games: average 2.2 cards for, 2.4 against – total 4.6.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While the combined average is slightly below 8.5, Bohemians' attacking intent and Sligo's occasional defensive lapses could push the total over, though confidence is low due to Sligo's low shot output.
- Sligo Rovers average 2.9 shots on target per game, Bohemians 5.3.
- Combined average shots on target: 8.2.
- Last 5 H2H: shots on target totals were 7, 9, 6, 10, 8 – average 8.0.
- Bohemians' last 5 away games: average 5.4 shots on target for, 3.8 against – total 9.2.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W1-2BohemiansvSligo RoversApr 10, 2026PRE

L0-4Sligo RoversvBohemiansFeb 14, 2026PRE

D0-0Sligo RoversvBohemiansAug 30, 2025PRE

W0-1BohemiansvSligo RoversAug 15, 2025FAI

D1-1BohemiansvSligo RoversJun 27, 2025PRE

Sligo Rovers: 2 clean sheetsBohemians: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier Division 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Sligo Rovers Premier Division (Relegation)	18	5	4	9	14-24	19	WLDDL
3	Bohemians Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	18	8	7	3	27-18	31	WWWDD

12pt gap between teamsSligo Rovers in relegation zone

Recent Form

Sligo Rovers

W2-1Shamrock RoversMay 22PRE

L1-4Galway UnitedMay 16PRE

D0-0ShelbourneMay 8PRE

D1-1St Patrick's Athl.May 4PRE

L0-1Drogheda UnitedMay 1PRE

W2-0DundalkApr 25PRE

W2-0WaterfordApr 18PRE

W2-1BohemiansApr 10PRE

D0-0Derry CityApr 6PRE

L1-4St Patrick's Athl.Apr 3PRE

L0-1ShelbourneMar 21PRE

L0-1DundalkMar 16PRE

L0-2Shamrock RoversMar 13PRE

W2-1Drogheda UnitedMar 7PRE

L0-1Galway UnitedFeb 27PRE

Bohemians

W4-2Galway UnitedMay 22PRE

W2-1Drogheda UnitedMay 15PRE

W3-1DundalkMay 8PRE

D2-2ShelbourneMay 4PRE

D1-1Derry CityMay 1PRE

L1-3St Patrick's Athl.Apr 24PRE

L1-2Shamrock RoversApr 17PRE

L1-2Sligo RoversApr 10PRE

D1-1WaterfordApr 6PRE

D0-0Drogheda UnitedApr 3PRE

D1-1DundalkMar 20PRE

D0-0ShelbourneMar 16PRE

W1-0Galway UnitedMar 13PRE

W1-0WaterfordMar 6PRE

W3-2Shamrock RoversFeb 27PRE

Squad & Injuries

Sligo Rovers

28 available

Attackers5

Midfielders14

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

Bohemians

24 available

Attackers5

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Sligo Rovers1Bohemians3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Sligo Rovers or Draw

Draw

Yes

Over 9.5

Over 3.5

Under 1.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Draw at half-time / Draw at full-time

Yes

Under 8.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sligo Rovers

Bohemians

Squad & Injuries

Sligo Rovers

Bohemians