Dundalk vs Derry City: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology strongly favors a draw with 4 of last 5 meetings ending level, and both teams' recent form and home/away splits reinforce a stalemate.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 draws, 1 Derry win; last 2 meetings both 2-2 draws (2026).
- Dundalk home record: 5W-2D-2L, Derry away record: 1W-5D-3L.
- Derry last 5 form: D-D-L-D-D (0 wins); Dundalk last 5: D-W-L-D-L (1 win).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home edge and Derry's poor away form, combined with Dundalk's scheduling advantage, make a home loss unlikely.
- Dundalk home record: 5W-2D-2L (78% unbeaten at home).
- Derry away record: 1W-5D-3L (only 1 away win all season).
- Dundalk have longer prep window (last played 22 May vs Derry's 25 May).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDundalk or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles and the H2H shows a tendency for level scores at the break.
- Dundalk leading at HT in 47% of matches, trailing in 33%; Derry leading in 40%, trailing in 27%.
- Last 5 H2H first halves: 2 draws, 2 Dundalk leads, 1 Derry lead.
- Dundalk home first-half goals: 0.8 avg; Derry away first-half goals: 0.5 avg.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half performances are balanced with a slight edge to Dundalk at home, but H2H shows mixed results, making a draw the safest call.
- Dundalk home second-half goal difference: +0.4; Derry away second-half goal difference: -0.1.
- Last 5 H2H second halves: 2 draws, 2 Derry wins, 1 Dundalk win.
- Both teams tend to score more in second halves (Dundalk 0.9, Derry 0.6).
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a full-time draw is likely, a half-time draw is also probable, but the combination is less certain given second-half dynamics.
- Dundalk home HT/FT: 3 draws at HT, 2 draws at FT.
- Derry away HT/FT: 5 draws at HT, 5 draws at FT.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws at HT, 4 draws at FT.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H trend of high-scoring draws and Dundalk's home goal involvement suggest a decent chance of at least 3 goals.
- Dundalk home matches average 2.78 total goals (16 scored, 9 conceded in 9 games).
- Derry away matches average 2.0 total goals (8 scored, 10 conceded in 9 games).
- Last 2 H2H both ended 2-2; 3 of last 5 H2H had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently find the net in this fixture and have moderate defensive records, making BTTS likely.
- Dundalk scored in 8 of 9 home games; Derry scored in 7 of 9 away games.
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Dundalk home clean sheets: 2 in 9; Derry away clean sheets: 2 in 9.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring averages for both teams and a consistent H2H pattern of few early goals support under 1.5 in the first half.
- Dundalk home first-half goals: 0.8 per game; Derry away first-half goals: 0.5 per game.
- Dundalk home first-half goals conceded: 0.5; Derry away first-half goals conceded: 0.4.
- Last 5 H2H first-half goals: 0, 1, 0, 1, 0 (all under 1.5).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, and their matches typically exceed 9.5 total corners.
- Dundalk home corners avg: 6.4; Derry away corners avg: 5.8.
- Combined average corners in Dundalk home games: 12.2; Derry away games: 11.8.
- Last H2H (Apr 2026): 6 corners for Dundalk, 0 for Derry (low, but previous meetings higher).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Discipline stats show consistent card accumulation, and the fiery H2H history suggests a high-card affair.
- Dundalk home yellow cards avg: 2.2; Derry away yellow cards avg: 3.0.
- Combined average cards in Dundalk home games: 5.2; Derry away games: 5.0.
- Last H2H: 3 yellow cards for Dundalk, 9 for Derry (total 12).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Dundalk	18	6	8	4	29-27	26	DWLDL
6	Derry City	18	4	9	5	21-21	21	DDLDD

Dundalk2Derry City1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Dundalk or Draw

Draw

Yes

Over 9.5

Over 4.5

Under 1.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 3 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Dundalk

Derry City

Under 1.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Dundalk

Derry City

Squad & Injuries

Dundalk

Derry City