Copa LibertadoresFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Lanus1Mirassol0

HT 1–0Tue 26 May 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 22–5On targetOn target 5–1CornersCorners 10–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 May 2026, 23:10 · Europe/Bucharest

A tense, low-scoring group finale is expected as Lanus' strong home defense meets a motivated Mirassol side.

Top value lies in Under 2.5 goals (75% estimate vs. 64.5% implied) and Under 0.5 first-half goals (60% vs. 40% implied), with Over 4.5 cards also offering an edge. Avoid Lanus or Draw and Over 2.5 goals, where market pricing overestimates the likelihood of goals and a home win.

Context

Chico Kim said the responsibility is to keep first place and the squad must deliver in Buenos Aires.
- Manager Guanaes framed the match as a final, dismissing any dead-rubber mentality.
- Mirassol sit top of Group G and a draw or win guarantees first place.
Pellegrino said Lanus need to improve, rebuild and show a reaction after the Quito loss.
- Lanus have won only 2 of their last 5 matches, scoring just 0.4 goals per game in that run.
- At home in the Libertadores, Lanus have two 1-0 wins and clean sheets, showing a clear venue split.
Home Libertadores record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 2 goals scored, 0 conceded.
- Both home wins were 1-0, with goals coming in the second half.
- Lanus average only 0.7 goals per game over their last 15 matches overall.
H2H result: Mirassol 1-0 Lanus on 8 April 2026.
- The match was 0-0 at half-time.
- Lanus had a player sent off in that game, which may have influenced the scoreline.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lanus are strong at home in Libertadores with a perfect defensive record, while Mirassol are motivated to secure first place but have mixed away form; a low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome given Lanus's recent struggles to score and Mirassol's solid but not dominant away performances.
- Lanus home Libertadores record this season: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 2 goals scored, 0 conceded.
- Mirassol away Libertadores record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss, 2 goals scored, 3 conceded.
- Lanus last 5 matches overall: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, averaging 0.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Mirassol last 5 matches overall: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lanus's strong home Libertadores form, with two clean-sheet wins, makes them unlikely to lose at home; combined with Mirassol's imperfect away record, Lanus or Draw offers solid value.
- Lanus home Libertadores record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses.
- Mirassol away Libertadores record: 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss.
- Lanus have not lost at home in Libertadores this season, keeping clean sheets in both matches.
- Mirassol have lost 1 of 2 away Libertadores matches, conceding 3 goals.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLanus or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lanus have a strong tendency for first half draws (80% of recent matches), and both home Libertadores games were goalless at the break; Mirassol's first half lead rate is higher but not enough to overcome Lanus's pattern, making a draw the most probable half-time result.
- Lanus last 15 matches: led at half time in only 7% of matches, trailed in 13%, 80% drawn at half time.
- Mirassol last 15 matches: led at half time in 40%, trailed in 7%, 53% drawn.
- Lanus home Libertadores: both matches 0-0 at half time.
- H2H: 0-0 at half time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a half-time draw is likely, a full-time draw is less certain given Lanus's ability to edge wins at home; however, the combination of low-scoring patterns and Mirassol's motivation could produce a stalemate, though confidence is low.
- Lanus last 15 matches: 7 draws, with 5 being 0-0 at half time.
- Mirassol last 15 matches: 3 draws, with 2 being 0-0 at half time.
- Lanus home Libertadores: both matches 0-0 at half time, one ended 1-0, the other 1-0.
- H2H: 0-0 at half time, ended 1-0.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown low-scoring trends, especially Lanus with a 1.5 total goals average over 15 matches and two 1-0 home Libertadores wins; the only H2H also ended 1-0, strongly supporting Under 2.5 goals.
- Lanus last 15 matches: average total goals 1.5 (0.7 scored, 0.8 conceded).
- Mirassol last 15 matches: average total goals 2.2 (1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded).
- Lanus home Libertadores matches: both ended 1-0.
- H2H this season: Mirassol 1-0 Lanus.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lanus have been defensively solid at home in Libertadores with two clean sheets, and their overall scoring struggles (0.7 goals per game) combined with Mirassol's occasional away blanks make both teams scoring unlikely.
- Lanus home Libertadores: 2 clean sheets in 2 matches.
- Mirassol away Libertadores: failed to score in 1 of 2 matches (0-2 loss at LDU Quito).
- Lanus last 5 matches: scored in only 2 of 5, failing to score in 3.
- H2H: Mirassol kept a clean sheet against Lanus.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lanus have a perfect defensive record at home in Libertadores and a solid overall defensive average, while Mirassol's away attack has been inconsistent, giving Lanus a good chance of another clean sheet.
- Lanus home Libertadores: 2 clean sheets in 2 matches.
- Lanus overall last 15 matches: 0.8 goals conceded per game.
- Mirassol away Libertadores: scored 2 goals in 2 matches, but blanked in one.
- Lanus last 5 home matches (all competitions): 3 clean sheets in 5.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMirassol not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lanus have been extremely low-scoring in first halves, with only 0.4 total first half goals on average, and both home Libertadores matches were 0-0 at the break; Mirassol's first half scoring is moderate but likely to be contained by Lanus's cautious approach.
- Lanus last 15 matches: first half goals average 0.2 scored, 0.2 conceded.
- Mirassol last 15 matches: first half goals average 0.7 scored, 0.3 conceded.
- Lanus home Libertadores: 0 first half goals in both matches.
- H2H: 0-0 at half time.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, with Lanus's home Libertadores goals and the H2H goal all coming after the break, making Over 0.5 second half goals likely.
- Lanus last 15 matches: 0.5 second half goals scored on average (0.7 total - 0.2 first half).
- Mirassol last 15 matches: 0.5 second half goals scored on average (1.2 total - 0.7 first half).
- Lanus home Libertadores: both goals came in the second half.
- H2H: only goal came in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lanus's overall corner averages are low (8.4 total per game), and while Mirassol's matches have slightly higher totals, the H2H was an outlier; with Lanus likely to control possession at home, a lower corner count is expected.
- Lanus last 15 matches: average corners 4.3, opponent corners 4.1, total 8.4.
- Mirassol last 15 matches: average corners 4.9, opponent corners 5.3, total 10.2.
- Lanus home Libertadores: corners totals 5 and 10 (average 7.5).
- H2H: corners total 13 (Mirassol 5, Lanus 8).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 5 cards per game, and with the match carrying stakes for both sides (Lanus needing a response, Mirassol protecting first place), a competitive, card-filled encounter is likely.
- Lanus last 15 matches: average yellow cards 2.5, opponent 2.3, total 4.8.
- Mirassol last 15 matches: average yellow cards 2.9, opponent 2.5, total 5.4.
- Lanus home Libertadores: yellow cards 3 and 2 (total 5) in two matches.
- H2H: yellow cards Lanus 1, Mirassol 3 (total 4).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 1W

L1-0MirassolvLanusApr 8, 2026CON

1 goals/game avg

League Table

CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Lanus Copa Sudamericana	5	2	0	3	2-7	6	LLWWL
1	Mirassol Playoffs	5	4	0	1	7-3	12	WWWLW

6pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Lanus

L0-2LDU de QuitoMay 21CON

L0-2Argentinos JRSMay 10LIG

L0-4Always ReadyMay 6CON

D0-0Deportivo RiestraMay 2LIG

W1-0LDU de QuitoApr 28CON

D0-0Central Cordoba de SantiagoApr 24LIG

L0-1Gimnasia M.Apr 21LIG

W1-0Always ReadyApr 16CON

W1-0BanfieldApr 13LIG

L0-1MirassolApr 8CON

D0-0PlatenseApr 1LIG

L1-2Argentinos JRSMar 27LIG

W1-0Velez SarsfieldMar 21LIG

W5-0Newells Old BoysMar 17LIG

W1-0Estudiantes L.P.Mar 13LIG

Mirassol

W1-0FluminenseMay 23SA

W2-1Always ReadyMay 20CON

L1-3Atletico-MGMay 16SA

W2-1RB BragantinoMay 13COP

D1-1Chapecoense-scMay 10SA

W2-0LDU de QuitoMay 7CON

W2-1CorinthiansMay 3SA

W2-0Always ReadyApr 29CON

L0-1Sao PauloApr 26SA

D1-1RB BragantinoApr 23COP

W2-1InternacionalApr 19SA

L0-2LDU de QuitoApr 15CON

L1-2BahiaApr 11SA

W1-0LanusApr 8CON

L0-1RB BragantinoApr 5SA

Squad & Injuries

Lanus

29 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper2

Mirassol

35 available

Attackers9

Midfielders10

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

No

Under 0.5

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Lanus or Draw

Over 2.5

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Lanus

Mirassol

Squad & Injuries

Lanus

Mirassol