EliteserienFull time

Predictions graded

Sarpsborg 082Molde FK1

HT 1–1Mon 25 May 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 23%–77%ShotsShots 5–13On targetOn target 2–5CornersCorners 2–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 May 2026, 00:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Sarpsborg's strong recent league H2H record (unbeaten in 4, W3 D1) and Molde's poor away form point to a tight, low-scoring match.

The best value is Under 2.5 goals at 2.40, with a +16.3 point edge over the market. Avoid Both Teams to Score Yes at short odds, as our model sees only a moderate chance.

Context

Sarpsborg won the last two league H2Hs 1-0 at home and 2-0 away.
- The last four league meetings: W3 D1 for Sarpsborg, with Molde failing to score in two of those.
- Molde's only recent H2H win was a 4-2 cup match in May 2024, not in the league.
Molde's away record: W1 D1 L2, with 3 goals scored and 7 conceded.
- They lost 2-0 at Tromso and 4-1 at Viking, and drew 1-1 at Start.
- Only one away clean sheet, and they failed to score in two of four road games.
The club announced all individual tickets at NOK 19 and free group tickets for this match.
- The campaign was launched after the Fredrikstad derby win, calling it the last home game before the June break.
- A packed stadium adds extra motivation and pressure on the visitors.
Sarpsborg have 8 points, the same as 14th-placed KFUM Oslo, with only goal difference keeping them above the playoff line.
- Molde are 5th with 16 points, three behind 4th-placed Lillestrom with a game in hand, chasing a European spot.
- Simultaneous kickoffs for nearby rivals mean neither team can react to other results, increasing focus on their own match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The strong recent H2H psychology favoring Sarpsborg, combined with Molde's weak away form, gives the hosts a clear edge despite their lower table position.
- Sarpsborg 08 are unbeaten in the last 4 league H2H meetings (W3 D1), including a 1-0 home win on 30 Nov 2025.
- Molde FK have a poor away record this season: W1 D1 L2, with only 3 goals scored in 4 away matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 have a solid home defensive record: only 4 goals conceded in 4 home games this season.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSarpsborg 08Estimated chance38%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sarpsborg's home resilience and dominant recent H2H record make a home win or draw highly likely against a Molde side that struggles on the road.
- Sarpsborg 08 have lost only 1 of their last 4 home league matches (W1 D2 L1).
- Molde FK have won only 1 of their 4 away league matches this season.
- Sarpsborg 08 are unbeaten in the last 4 league H2H meetings (W3 D1).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSarpsborg 08 or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given both teams' moderate first-half performance and the recent H2H pattern of level scores at the break, a draw at half-time is the most likely outcome.
- Sarpsborg 08 were leading at half-time in only 29% of their last 15 matches.
- Molde FK were leading at half-time in 40% of their last 15 matches, but only 1 of 4 away league matches saw them lead at the break.
- The last 3 league H2H meetings were all draws at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sarpsborg's tendency to grow into games at home, coupled with Molde's second-half defensive frailties on the road, gives the hosts a slight edge after the break.
- Sarpsborg 08 have scored 60% of their home league goals in the second half (data inferred from match timelines).
- Molde FK have conceded 5 of their 7 away goals in the second half.
- Sarpsborg 08's recent H2H wins have often been decided by second-half goals (e.g., 1-0 win on 30 Nov 2025).
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableSarpsborg 08Estimated chance35%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can find the net in this fixture and in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS a reasonable expectation.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings across all competitions.
- Sarpsborg 08 have scored in 3 of their 4 home league matches this season.
- Molde FK have scored in 3 of their 4 away league matches, but also conceded in 3 of those 4.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sarpsborg's tight home defense and the recent low-scoring H2H trend suggest a match with fewer than 3 goals.
- Sarpsborg 08's home league matches average only 2.0 total goals (4 goals for, 4 against in 4 games).
- Molde FK's away league matches average 2.5 total goals (3 for, 7 against in 4 games).
- The last two league H2H meetings ended 1-0 and 2-0, both under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 goals in the first half probable.
- Sarpsborg 08 average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded over the last 15 matches.
- Molde FK average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded over the last 15 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, only 1 match had more than 1 first-half goal (the 4-2 cup match).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Molde's consistent away scoring record makes it unlikely that Sarpsborg will keep a clean sheet.
- Sarpsborg 08 have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 5 home league matches.
- Molde FK have scored in 3 of their 4 away league matches this season.
- Molde FK have failed to score in only 1 of their last 5 away matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMolde FK to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sarpsborg's home scoring form and Molde's away defensive vulnerabilities suggest the visitors are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- Molde FK have kept only 1 clean sheet in their 4 away league matches this season.
- Sarpsborg 08 have scored in 3 of their 4 home league matches this season.
- Sarpsborg 08 have scored in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSarpsborg 08 to scoreEstimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While the averages are borderline, the tactical matchup and occasional high-corner H2H games suggest a slight lean toward over 9.5 corners.
- Sarpsborg 08 average 5.2 corners per match over the last 15 games.
- Molde FK average 4.2 corners per match over the last 15 games, but their away matches see an average of 10.5 total corners (based on limited data).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings with corner data, total corners were 7, 14, 5, 3, and 13, averaging 8.4.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages and the competitive nature of this relegation-threatened vs. European-chasing clash point to a match with over 3.5 cards.
- Sarpsborg 08 average 1.4 yellow cards per match over the last 15 games.
- Molde FK average 1.8 yellow cards per match over the last 15 games.
- The last 5 H2H meetings with card data averaged 3.4 total cards, with 3 of 5 matches having 4 or more cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L1-0Sarpsborg 08 FFvMoldeNov 30, 2025ELI

W0-2MoldevSarpsborg 08 FFMar 30, 2025ELI

D2-2Sarpsborg 08 FFvMoldeNov 10, 2024ELI

W2-4MoldevSarpsborg 08 FFMay 20, 2024ELI

L4-2MoldevSarpsborg 08 FFMay 8, 2024NM

3.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Eliteserien 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Sarpsborg 08	9	2	2	5	9-14	8	LWLLL
5	Molde FK	9	5	1	3	15-10	16	WLWWD

8pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Sarpsborg 08

L2-3ValerengaMay 16ELI

W2-1FredrikstadMay 9ELI

L0-4LillestromMay 3ELI

L0-1KFUM OsloApr 26ELI

L0-1TromsoApr 19ELI

D1-1Bodo/GlimtApr 15ELI

L1-2RosenborgApr 12ELI

D1-1StartApr 6ELI

D2-2Ham-KamMar 26FRI

W2-0SandefjordMar 22ELI

W3-0BK HackenMar 14FRI

L1-2FredrikstadMar 8NM

L0-2VikingMar 1FRI

W1-0Kristiansund BKFeb 25FRI

W2-0Zbrojovka BrnoFeb 19FRI

Molde FK

W1-0Kristiansund BKMay 16ELI

L0-2TromsoMay 10ELI

W1-0Bodo/GlimtMay 4ELI

W5-1ValerengaApr 26ELI

D1-1StartApr 19ELI

W4-1Ham-KamApr 12ELI

L0-1LillestromApr 6ELI

L1-4VikingMar 21ELI

W2-0RosenborgMar 14ELI

L1-2Bodo/GlimtMar 5NM

W4-1AalesundFeb 27FRI

D2-2VikingFeb 17FRI

W2-1BrattvågFeb 15FRI

L0-1Metalist 1925 KharkivFeb 12FRI

D0-0Kristiansund BKFeb 6FRI

Squad & Injuries

Sarpsborg 08

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Molde FK

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Sarpsborg 08 or Draw

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

Sarpsborg 08

Yes

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sarpsborg 08

Molde FK

Squad & Injuries

Sarpsborg 08

Molde FK