EliteserienFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

IK Start2Vålerenga IF0

HT 2–0Mon 25 May 2026, 12:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges3–443%

PossPossession 31%–69%ShotsShots 15–15On targetOn target 2–1CornersCorners 5–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 May 2026, 00:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Vålerenga's fresh-manager bounce, dominant H2H record (7-2-1 in last 10), and Start's winless season make Draw or Vålerenga the safest play, though odds are short.

Avoid Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals due to negative edges, and expect a match where Vålerenga likely avoid defeat but offer little betting value.

Context

Start's league record is 0W 4D 6L, with 10 goals scored and 26 conceded.
- They have lost 5 of their last 6 league matches, conceding 2.3 goals per game on average.
- At home, Start are 0W 3D 1L, scoring only 4 goals in 4 matches.
Vålerenga announced Bakke's exit on 7 May and presented Moesgaard as head coach by 14 May.
- The club reported nearly 700 away tickets sold by 18 May, with 1,400 allocated.
- A new coach often brings tactical changes and a short-term performance lift.
Last three official results: 1-1 (Nov 2024), 2-1 to Vålerenga (Jul 2024), 4-0 to Vålerenga (Dec 2020).
- Vålerenga have won 7 of the last 10 official matches against Start.
- The goal difference across those 10 matches is 27-12 in Vålerenga's favour.
NFF's schedule shows round 11 on 29-30 May and round 12 not until 25 October.
- Start are 16th (last) with 4 points; Vålerenga are 12th with 8 points, only 2 points above the relegation playoff spot.
- The table legend marks 14th as the playoff spot and 15th-16th as direct relegation.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Vålerenga IF

2.22fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 45%

0.0ppshort

Vålerenga's strong H2H dominance and Start's dreadful form make an away win the most likely single outcome, though the odds are fair.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Start's defense has conceded in every league game, and Vålerenga have scored in 7 of 9, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Start's matches average 3.6 total goals, but our 55% estimate is below the implied probability, suggesting no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vålerenga's strong H2H dominance, combined with Start's dreadful form and the new-manager bounce for the away side, makes an away win the most likely single outcome despite Vålerenga's own inconsistent season.
- Vålerenga are unbeaten in the last 3 official H2H meetings (2W 1D), with a 7-2-1 edge in the last 10 official matches.
- Start are winless in 10 league matches this season (0W 4D 6L), sitting last with 4 points and a -16 goal difference.
- Vålerenga have a fresh coach (Moesgaard appointed mid-May) and are bringing ~700 away supporters, reducing home advantage.
- Start have lost 5 of their last 6 league matches, conceding 2.3 goals per game on average.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVålerenga IFEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Start's inability to win any match this season, especially at home, combined with Vålerenga's historical edge and the motivational boost of a new coach, strongly supports the away side avoiding defeat.
- Start have not won any of their 10 league games this season (0W 4D 6L).
- Vålerenga are unbeaten in the last 3 official H2H meetings (2W 1D).
- Start's home record is 0W 3D 1L, with only 4 goals scored in 4 home matches.
- Vålerenga's away record is 1W 1D 2L, but they have avoided defeat in 2 of their last 3 away games.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Vålerenga IFEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vålerenga's superior first-half performance metrics and Start's slow starts give the away side a slight edge to lead at the break, though the low confidence reflects the variability of half-time results.
- Start have trailed at halftime in 40% of their matches this season, leading in only 27%.
- Vålerenga have led at halftime in 40% of their matches, trailing in only 20%.
- Start have scored only 0.6 first-half goals per game, while Vålerenga have scored 0.9.
- In the last 2 official H2H meetings, Vålerenga led at halftime once and the other was 0-0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostVålerenga IFEstimated chance35%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Start's leaky defense (conceded in every league game) and Vålerenga's consistent scoring record, along with the H2H trend, make it likely both teams will find the net despite Start's offensive struggles.
- Both teams have scored in 7 of Start's last 10 league matches.
- Vålerenga have scored in 7 of their 9 league matches this season, but have only 1 clean sheet.
- Start have conceded in all 10 league matches, averaging 2.6 goals against per game.
- The last two official H2H meetings both saw both teams score (1-1 and 2-1).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Start's defensive fragility (2.6 goals conceded per game) and the high-scoring trend in recent H2H encounters point towards a match with at least 3 goals, even if Vålerenga's attack isn't prolific.
- Start's league matches average 3.6 total goals (10 scored, 26 conceded in 10 games).
- Vålerenga's league matches average 2.7 total goals (10 scored, 14 conceded in 9 games).
- 4 of Start's last 5 league matches have seen over 2.5 goals.
- The last 3 official H2H meetings produced 2, 3, and 4 goals respectively.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Start's tendency to concede early (0.9 first-half goals against on average) and Vålerenga's decent first-half scoring record make it highly probable that the deadlock will be broken before halftime.
- Start have conceded a first-half goal in 8 of their last 10 league matches.
- Vålerenga have scored a first-half goal in 6 of their 9 league matches.
- Start's first-half goal difference is -0.3 per game (0.6 scored, 0.9 conceded).
- In the last 5 official H2H meetings, at least one first-half goal was scored in 4 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Start's defense tends to weaken as games progress, and Vålerenga's ability to score late, combined with the high-scoring second halves in recent H2H, suggests the second period will see multiple goals.
- Start concede an average of 1.4 second-half goals per game (2.3 total - 0.9 first half).
- Vålerenga score an average of 0.8 second-half goals per game (1.7 total - 0.9 first half).
- 6 of Start's last 10 league matches have seen at least 2 second-half goals.
- The last 2 official H2H meetings both had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vålerenga's poor defensive record on the road (conceded in every away game) and Start's ability to score at home, even in a poor season, make an away clean sheet highly unlikely.
- Vålerenga have kept only 1 clean sheet in 9 league matches this season.
- Start have scored in 8 of their 10 league matches, failing to score only against Bodo/Glimt (twice).
- Vålerenga have conceded in all 4 away league matches this season (7 goals against).
- Start have scored in 3 of their 4 home league matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonIK Start to scoreEstimated chance85%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vålerenga's high corner count (7.4 per game) and Start's tendency to concede corners could push the total over 9.5, but Start's low corner generation and inconsistent H2H data make this a borderline call.
- Vålerenga average 7.4 corners per game, while Start average only 3.3.
- Start concede an average of 6.1 corners per game (based on opponent corners in recent matches).
- Vålerenga's matches average 10.4 total corners (7.4 for, 3.0 against in available data).
- In the last 5 official H2H meetings with corner data, total corners were 6, 14, 17, 9, and 10.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar card averages that sum to over 4.5, but the low confidence reflects the unpredictable nature of bookings and the referee's slightly above-average but not extreme card rate.
- Start average 2.3 yellow cards per game, Vålerenga average 2.4.
- Start's matches average 4.6 total cards (based on available opponent data).
- Vålerenga's matches average 4.8 total cards.
- The referee, Rohit Saggi, has an average of 3.8 cards per game in Eliteserien this season (league average ~3.5).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

D1-1ValerengavStartNov 2, 20241.

W1-2StartvValerengaJul 20, 20241.

L3-1ValerengavStartMar 1, 2022FRI

L4-0ValerengavStartDec 22, 2020ELI

L2-1StartvValerengaAug 17, 2020ELI

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Eliteserien 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	IK Start Relegation - OBOS-ligaen	10	0	4	6	10-26	4	LLDLL
9	Vålerenga IF	9	3	2	4	10-14	11	WLDLL

7pt gap between teamsIK Start in relegation zone

Recent Form

IK Start

L1-4Bodo/GlimtMay 20ELI

L3-6VikingMay 16ELI

D1-1TromsoMay 3ELI

L0-5Bodo/GlimtApr 30ELI

L1-2Ham-KamApr 26ELI

D1-1MoldeApr 19ELI

L1-3LillestromApr 11ELI

D1-1Sarpsborg 08 FFApr 6ELI

L0-1TromsoMar 27FRI

D1-1AalesundMar 21ELI

L0-2KFUM OsloMar 15ELI

L2-3SandefjordMar 8FRI

D2-2BryneFeb 28FRI

L1-2RosenborgFeb 24FRI

W2-0DonnFeb 17FRI

Vålerenga IF

W3-2Sarpsborg 08 FFMay 16ELI

L0-1Ham-KamMay 8ELI

D2-2KFUM OsloMay 3ELI

L1-5MoldeApr 26ELI

L0-2LillestromApr 19ELI

D1-1FredrikstadApr 12ELI

L0-1VikingApr 6ELI

D3-3IFK GoteborgMar 27FRI

W2-0RosenborgMar 22ELI

W1-0SandefjordMar 15ELI

W4-3StromsgodsetMar 7FRI

W1-0RosenborgFeb 27FRI

W1-0KFUM OsloFeb 21FRI

L1-2Djurgardens IFFeb 14FRI

W5-2SandefjordFeb 6FRI

Squad & Injuries

IK Start

27 available

Attackers4

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Vålerenga IF

24 available

Attackers4

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Vålerenga IF

Vålerenga IF

Yes

Over 2.5

Over 0.5

Over 1.5

IK Start to score

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

IK Start

Vålerenga IF

Squad & Injuries

IK Start

Vålerenga IF