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Predictions graded

Sunderland2Chelsea1

HT 1–0Sun 24 May 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–456%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 21–8On targetOn target 6–3CornersCorners 6–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 May 2026, 18:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Sunderland's home resilience and Chelsea's interim-coach chaos make Sunderland or Draw (1.80) the standout value, with a 65% estimated probability.

The first-half draw (2.30) and Under 2.5 goals (2.05) also offer edges, while Chelsea's match-winner price is too short given their poor form.

Context

AP reported on May 17 that Rosenior was sacked and Xabi Alonso only starts on July 1.
- McFarlane stays as interim for the last two league matches.
- Chelsea lost the FA Cup final under McFarlane on May 16, confirming a trophyless season.
Sunderland home record: 8 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses.
- They have avoided defeat in 14 of 18 home matches.
- Only four teams have beaten them at home this season.
Last 5 league results: W-D-L-L-L (4 points from 15).
- Away losses at Brighton (0-3) and Everton (0-3) in that run.
- Only one win in their last five away league games.
Sunderland won 2-1 at Chelsea on 25 October 2025.
- It was the most recent meeting between the teams.
- Sunderland have now won two of the last three H2H encounters.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sunderland's home solidity and Chelsea's poor form under interim management, combined with the reverse fixture upset, give Sunderland a genuine chance, though Chelsea's overall quality keeps it close.
- Sunderland won the reverse fixture 2-1 at Stamford Bridge this season (25 Oct 2025).
- Sunderland home record: 8W-6D-4L, 23 goals for, 19 against; Chelsea away record: 7W-5D-6L, 31 for, 25 against.
- Chelsea last 5 form: W-D-L-L-L (4 points from 15); Sunderland last 5: W-D-D-L-L (5 points from 15).
- Chelsea under interim coach Calum McFarlane after Rosenior sacking and before Alonso arrival, with off-field pressure after trophyless season.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSunderlandEstimated chance38%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sunderland's strong home resilience and Chelsea's inconsistent away form, exacerbated by coaching instability, make a home win or draw the most likely outcome.
- Sunderland home record: only 4 losses in 18 home games this season.
- Chelsea away record: 6 losses in 18 away games, with only 7 wins.
- Chelsea last 5 away games: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses (including a 3-0 loss at Everton).
- Sunderland have avoided defeat in 14 of 18 home matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSunderland or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sunderland's home first halves are overwhelmingly drawn, and Chelsea's away first halves are often level or behind, making a draw at the break the most probable outcome.
- Sunderland home half-time results: leading at HT in 20% of matches, trailing in 40%, drawing in 40%.
- Chelsea away half-time results: leading at HT in 27% of matches, trailing in 47%, drawing in 26%.
- Sunderland last 5 home first halves: 0-0 vs Man Utd, 0-4 vs Nottm Forest, 0-0 vs Tottenham, 0-0 vs Brighton, 0-0 vs Fulham (4 of 5 draws).
- Chelsea last 5 away first halves: 1-1 at Liverpool, 0-1 at Brighton, 0-1 at Everton, 2-1 at Aston Villa, 1-1 at Arsenal (2 draws, 2 losses, 1 win).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While both teams have poor second-half records, Sunderland's home advantage and Chelsea's instability give the hosts a slight edge to win the second period.
- Sunderland home second half record: won 6, drawn 7, lost 5 in 18 home games.
- Chelsea away second half record: won 5, drawn 6, lost 7 in 18 away games.
- Sunderland last 5 home second halves: won 1 (vs Tottenham), drew 1 (vs Man Utd), lost 3 (vs Nottm Forest, Brighton, Fulham).
- Chelsea last 5 away second halves: won 1 (at Aston Villa), drew 1 (at Liverpool), lost 3 (at Brighton, Everton, Arsenal).
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableSunderlandEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Sunderland win is a plausible scenario given Sunderland's tendency to improve in second halves at home and Chelsea's fragility.
- Sunderland home HT/FT: Draw/Win occurred in 4 of 18 home games (22%).
- Chelsea away HT/FT: Draw/Loss occurred in 3 of 18 away games (17%).
- Sunderland's last 5 home games: 2 Draw/Win results (vs Man Utd and Tottenham).
- Chelsea's last 5 away games: 1 Draw/Loss result (at Liverpool).
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / SunderlandEstimated chance20%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sunderland's home matches tend to be low-scoring, and Chelsea's attack has been inconsistent on the road, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair.
- Sunderland home games average 2.33 total goals (23 for, 19 against in 18 matches).
- Chelsea away games average 3.11 total goals (31 for, 25 against in 18 matches), but recent away form shows lower scoring: last 5 away games averaged 2.4 goals.
- Sunderland last 5 home games: 0-0 vs Man Utd, 0-5 vs Nottm Forest, 1-0 vs Tottenham, 0-1 vs Brighton, 1-3 vs Fulham (avg 2.2 goals).
- Chelsea last 5 away games: 1-1 at Liverpool, 0-3 at Brighton, 0-3 at Everton, 4-1 at Aston Villa, 1-2 at Arsenal (avg 2.8 goals, but 3 of 5 under 2.5).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a moderate tendency to keep clean sheets or fail to score, and the high-stakes final day could lead to cautious play, making a 'No' slightly more likely.
- Sunderland home clean sheets: 6 in 18 home games (33%).
- Chelsea away failed to score: 5 in 18 away games (28%).
- Sunderland failed to score at home: 5 in 18 home games (28%).
- Chelsea away clean sheets: 4 in 18 away games (22%).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sunderland's first halves at home are extremely low-scoring, and Chelsea's away first halves are not prolific, pointing to a quiet opening period.
- Sunderland first half goals at home: 0.3 per game average; first half goals conceded at home: 0.7 per game.
- Chelsea first half goals away: 0.7 per game average; first half goals conceded away: 0.9 per game.
- Sunderland last 5 home first halves: 0 goals vs Man Utd, 0 vs Nottm Forest, 0 vs Tottenham, 0 vs Brighton, 0 vs Fulham.
- Chelsea last 5 away first halves: 1 goal at Liverpool, 0 at Brighton, 0 at Everton, 2 at Aston Villa, 1 at Arsenal (avg 0.8 goals).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and with final-day urgency potentially increasing after a cagey first half, the second half could see more goals.
- Sunderland home second half goals: 0.9 per game; second half goals conceded: 0.4 per game.
- Chelsea away second half goals: 1.0 per game; second half goals conceded: 0.5 per game.
- Sunderland last 5 home second halves: 0 goals vs Man Utd, 5 vs Nottm Forest, 1 vs Tottenham, 1 vs Brighton, 3 vs Fulham (avg 2.0 goals).
- Chelsea last 5 away second halves: 0 goals at Liverpool, 3 at Brighton, 3 at Everton, 2 at Aston Villa, 1 at Arsenal (avg 1.8 goals).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Chelsea's higher corner count, the combined averages and recent trends suggest a total under 9.5 corners is more likely, especially if the game is tight.
- Sunderland home corners average: 4.2 per game; opponent corners average: 5.1 per game (total 9.3).
- Chelsea away corners average: 6.4 per game; opponent corners average: 4.2 per game (total 10.6).
- Sunderland last 5 home corners: 6, 3, 2, 7, 6 (avg 4.8); opponent corners: 7, 6, 6, 3, 4 (avg 5.2) → total avg 10.0.
- Chelsea last 5 away corners: 2, 5, 9, 8, 10 (avg 6.8); opponent corners: 5, 6, 3, 3, 5 (avg 4.4) → total avg 11.2, but 3 of 5 under 9.5.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 4 cards per game in their respective home/away splits, and the high-stakes nature of the match could lead to more disciplinary actions.
- Sunderland home yellow cards average: 2.3 per game; opponent yellow cards average: 2.1 per game (total 4.4).
- Chelsea away yellow cards average: 2.4 per game; opponent yellow cards average: 1.8 per game (total 4.2).
- Sunderland last 5 home yellow cards: 0, 2, 3, 1, 1 (avg 1.4); opponent: 3, 5, 3, 2, 1 (avg 2.8) → total avg 4.2.
- Chelsea last 5 away yellow cards: 4, 1, 2, 2, 5 (avg 2.8); opponent: 2, 1, 1, 3, 1 (avg 1.6) → total avg 4.4.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

W1-2ChelseavSunderlandOct 25, 2025PL

L5-1ChelseavSunderlandMay 21, 2017PL

L0-1SunderlandvChelseaDec 14, 2016PL

W3-2SunderlandvChelseaMay 7, 2016PL

L3-1ChelseavSunderlandDec 19, 2015PL

3.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier League 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Sunderland	37	13	12	12	40-47	51	WDDLL
8	Chelsea Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	37	14	10	13	57-50	52	WDLLL

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Sunderland

W3-1EvertonMay 17PL

D0-0Manchester UnitedMay 9PL

D1-1WolvesMay 2PL

L0-5Nottingham ForestApr 24PL

L3-4Aston VillaApr 19PL

W1-0TottenhamApr 12PL

W2-1NewcastleMar 22PL

L0-1BrightonMar 14PL

L0-1Port ValeMar 8FAC

W1-0LeedsMar 3PL

D1-1BournemouthFeb 28PL

L1-3FulhamFeb 22PL

W1-0Oxford UnitedFeb 15FAC

L0-1LiverpoolFeb 11PL

L0-3ArsenalFeb 7PL

Chelsea

W2-1TottenhamMay 19PL

L0-1Manchester CityMay 16FAC

D1-1LiverpoolMay 9PL

L1-3Nottingham ForestMay 4PL

W1-0LeedsApr 26FAC

L0-3BrightonApr 21PL

L0-1Manchester UnitedApr 18PL

L0-3Manchester CityApr 12PL

W7-0Port ValeApr 4FAC

L0-3EvertonMar 21PL

L0-3Paris Saint GermainMar 17UEF

L0-1NewcastleMar 14PL

L2-5Paris Saint GermainMar 11UEF

W4-1Aston VillaMar 4PL

L1-2ArsenalMar 1PL

Squad & Injuries

Sunderland

31 available

Attackers10

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Chelsea

35 available

Attackers10

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Sunderland or Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 9.5

Under 1.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sunderland

Chelsea

Squad & Injuries

Sunderland

Chelsea