Portland Timbers11 – 3San Jose Earthquakes3

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

San Jose's strong away form and high conference standing give them an edge over inconsistent Portland, despite Portland's decent home record.

• San Jose away record: 5W-1D-1L, 15 GF, 8 GA in 7 matches (2026 MLS season)
• Portland home record: 3W-1D-1L, 13 GF, 8 GA in 5 matches (2026 MLS season)
• San Jose overall form: 9W-2D-3L, +17 goal difference, 2nd in West
• Portland overall form: 4W-2D-7L, -4 goal difference, 12th in West

BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSan Jose EarthquakesEstimated chance45%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Portland's high loss rate and San Jose's low loss rate, combined with recent H2H dominance, make a Portland win unlikely.

• Portland lost 7 of 13 league matches this season
• San Jose lost only 3 of 14 league matches
• H2H last 5: San Jose 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss (all competitions)

BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or San Jose EarthquakesEstimated chance70%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

San Jose's superior second-half performance and away resilience suggest they could edge the second period.

• San Jose second-half goal difference: +0.8 per match (estimated)
• Portland second-half goal difference: -0.4 per match (estimated)
• San Jose won 5 of last 7 away matches

BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableSan Jose EarthquakesEstimated chance40%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams' recent matches trend high-scoring, and H2H history supports goals, driven by Portland's leaky defense and San Jose's potent attack.

• Portland matches average 3.9 total goals (1.8 GF, 2.1 GA) over last 15
• San Jose matches average 3.4 total goals (2.3 GF, 1.1 GA) over last 15
• 4 of last 5 H2H meetings had over 2.5 goals

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Portland's defensive frailties and San Jose's consistent scoring make both teams finding the net probable.

• Portland scored in 11 of last 15 matches, conceded in 13 of last 15
• San Jose scored in 13 of last 15 matches, conceded in 8 of last 15
• Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Portland's matches often see early action with a high rate of halftime leads/deficits, suggesting first-half goals.

• Portland average 1.1 first-half goals, concede 1.0 first-half goals over last 15
• San Jose average 0.9 first-half goals, concede 0.4 first-half goals over last 15
• Portland led or trailed at halftime in 80% of recent matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Derived second-half averages hover near the 1.5 line, but limited direct half data makes this a low-confidence lean.

• Portland second-half goal difference: +0.2 per match (1.8 total - 1.1 first half = 0.7 GF; 2.1 total - 1.0 first half = 1.1 GA)
• San Jose second-half goal difference: +0.8 per match (2.3 total - 0.9 first half = 1.4 GF; 1.1 total - 0.4 first half = 0.7 GA)
• Combined second-half average: 1.95 goals per match

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams' matches average over 11 corners, but variance and missing data in some games lower confidence.

• Portland average 4.3 corners for, opponent corners 7.1 against over last 15 (total 11.4)
• San Jose average 6.8 corners for, opponent corners 5.1 against over last 15 (total 11.9)
• Combined average total corners: 11.65

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Card averages exceed the line, but red card inconsistency and missing discipline data in some matches reduce confidence.

• Portland average 1.8 yellow cards, 0.7 red cards per match over last 15
• San Jose average 2.3 yellow cards, 0.0 red cards per match over last 15
• Combined average cards: 4.8 per match