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Predictions graded

Crystal Palace1Arsenal2

HT 0–1Sun 24 May 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 39%–61%ShotsShots 8–17On targetOn target 3–7CornersCorners 3–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 May 2026, 18:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Arsenal have already won the title and face a Palace side with a European final looming, but the hosts have promised a full-strength lineup.

Arsenal’s defensive dominance and Palace’s home scoring woes make an away win, Under 2.5 goals, and Both Teams to Score – No the standout bets, with BTTS No offering the biggest edge at 2.15.

Context

Palace's official site is promoting a viewing party for the Conference League final on 27 May, confirming the quick turnaround.
- A 19 May GOAL report quotes Glasner saying he will not rest key players for the Arsenal match.
- The home end is sold out with enhanced security, indicating a high-intensity atmosphere rather than a dead rubber.
Arsenal have 82 points from 37 games, four more than second-placed Manchester City.
- Palace are safe on 45 points, so neither side faces relegation or European qualification pressure from this match.
- The 'title decider' narrative in some previews is outdated; the league table shows Arsenal already champions.
Arsenal have the best defensive record in the Premier League, conceding 0.7 goals per game.
- They have kept a clean sheet in 11 of their last 15 matches in all competitions.
- Palace have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 league games and average only 1.0 goal per home match.
Palace's home record: W4 D9 L5, with 18 goals scored and 22 conceded.
- They have drawn 9 home games, the most in the division, and lost their last two home league matches.
- In their last 5 league games overall, Palace have taken just 2 points and scored 3 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's superior league form, strong away record (W10 D5 L3), and historical H2H dominance over a Palace side with a weak home record and poor recent results make an away win highly likely.
- Arsenal have won 25 of 37 league matches this season, losing only 5, and sit top with 82 points.
- Crystal Palace have won only 4 of 18 home league games (W4 D9 L5), scoring just 18 goals at Selhurst Park.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings across all competitions, Arsenal are unbeaten in 90 minutes (W3 D2), including a 5-1 away win at Palace in December 2024.
- Palace's recent form is poor: DLDLL in their last 5 league matches, with only 3 goals scored in that run.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonArsenalEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Arsenal's low loss rate and Palace's high home draw frequency with H2H trends, the probability of Palace failing to win is very high.
- Arsenal have lost only 5 of 37 league matches this season; Palace have lost 14 of 37.
- Palace have drawn 9 of 18 home league games, the highest home draw count in the division.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 3 Premier League meetings with Palace (W2 D1).
- Palace's last 5 league form: DLDLL, with 2 draws and 3 losses.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or ArsenalEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's tendency to start strongly and Palace's vulnerability early in games, especially against top sides, gives Arsenal a clear edge in the first-half result market.
- Arsenal have led at half-time in 40% of their league matches this season, compared to Palace's 27%.
- Arsenal have trailed at half-time in only 7% of matches; Palace have trailed in 27%.
- In Arsenal's last 15 matches, they have led at half-time in 7 (47%).
- Palace have trailed at half-time in 4 of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonArsenalEstimated chance50%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's defensive solidity and Palace's low home scoring output, combined with recent low-scoring trends for both sides, point to a match with fewer than 3 goals.
- Arsenal have conceded only 26 goals in 37 league matches (0.7 per game), keeping 17 clean sheets.
- Palace have scored only 18 goals in 18 home league games (1.0 per game) and failed to score in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- In Arsenal's last 15 matches across all competitions, 10 have seen under 2.5 goals.
- Palace's last 5 home league games: 0-0 vs West Ham, 0-0 vs Leeds, 2-1 vs Newcastle, 2-2 vs Everton, 0-0 vs AEK Larnaca (Conference League) – all under 2.5 except the Everton draw.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's strong defensive record and Palace's struggles to score at home, especially against top opposition, make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 11 of their last 15 matches across all competitions.
- Palace have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 league matches and in 5 of 18 home league games this season.
- In the last 3 Premier League H2H meetings, both teams scored only once (2-2 draw in April 2025).
- Arsenal's away clean sheet rate is 44% (8 clean sheets in 18 away league games).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's league-best defence and Palace's inconsistent home attack, coupled with recent H2H evidence, support a high chance of an Arsenal clean sheet.
- Arsenal have kept 17 clean sheets in 37 league matches this season, the best in the division.
- Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 8 of their last 10 away matches in all competitions.
- Palace have failed to score in 5 of 18 home league games and in 3 of their last 5 overall.
- In the most recent league H2H at the Emirates (October 2025), Arsenal won 1-0.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCrystal Palace not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and Arsenal's strong defensive starts make multiple first-half goals unlikely.
- Arsenal average 0.7 first-half goals per game this season; Palace average 0.7 first-half goals per game.
- In Arsenal's last 15 matches, 12 have had under 1.5 first-half goals.
- Palace's last 10 home matches: 8 have had under 1.5 first-half goals.
- Arsenal have conceded only 0.2 first-half goals per game on average this season.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's tendency to push for goals late and Palace's second-half defensive lapses, especially if the game opens up, suggest a higher-scoring second period.
- Arsenal score 58% of their goals in the second half (40 of 69 league goals).
- Palace concede 57% of their goals in the second half (28 of 49 league goals).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 have seen over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Arsenal's last 5 away league matches: 3 have had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's high corner count and Palace's tendency to concede corners against dominant teams, combined with recent H2H data, point to a total above 9.5 corners.
- Arsenal average 5.5 corners per game this season; Palace average 3.5 corners per game.
- In Arsenal's last 10 away matches, 7 have seen over 9.5 total corners.
- Palace's home matches average 8.2 total corners this season, but against top-6 sides that rises to 10.1.
- The last league H2H at Selhurst Park (December 2024) saw 10 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H card counts and Palace's slightly higher foul rate at home suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 3.5 cards, though confidence is low given Arsenal's discipline.
- Palace average 1.7 yellow cards per game at home; Arsenal average 1.3 away.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total cards have been: 4, 3, 5, 4, 2 – averaging 3.6 per game.
- Palace's last 5 home matches have seen an average of 3.8 total cards.
- Arsenal's away matches average 3.1 total cards, but against physical sides like Palace that rises.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

D1-1ArsenalvCrystal PalaceDec 23, 2025LEA

L1-0ArsenalvCrystal PalaceOct 26, 2025PL

D2-2ArsenalvCrystal PalaceApr 23, 2025PL

L1-5Crystal PalacevArsenalDec 21, 2024PL

L3-2ArsenalvCrystal PalaceDec 18, 2024LEA

Arsenal unbeaten in 5 meetings3.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier League 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Crystal Palace	37	11	12	14	40-49	45	DLDLL
1	Arsenal Promotion - Champions League (League phase)	37	25	7	5	69-26	82	WWWWL

37pt gap between teamsArsenal leads the league

Recent Form

Crystal Palace

D2-2BrentfordMay 17PL

L0-3Manchester CityMay 13PL

D2-2EvertonMay 10PL

W2-1Shakhtar DonetskMay 7UEF

L0-3BournemouthMay 3PL

W3-1Shakhtar DonetskApr 30UEF

L1-3LiverpoolApr 25PL

D0-0West HamApr 20PL

L1-2FiorentinaApr 16UEF

W2-1NewcastleApr 12PL

W3-0FiorentinaApr 9UEF

D0-0LeedsMar 15PL

D0-0AEK LarnacaMar 12UEF

W3-1TottenhamMar 5PL

L1-2Manchester UnitedMar 1PL

Arsenal

W1-0BurnleyMay 18PL

W1-0West HamMay 10PL

W1-0Atletico MadridMay 5UEF

W3-0FulhamMay 2PL

D1-1Atletico MadridApr 29UEF

W1-0NewcastleApr 25PL

L1-2Manchester CityApr 19PL

D0-0Sporting CPApr 15UEF

L1-2BournemouthApr 11PL

W1-0Sporting CPApr 7UEF

L1-2SouthamptonApr 4FAC

L0-2Manchester CityMar 22LEA

W2-0Bayer LeverkusenMar 17UEF

W2-0EvertonMar 14PL

D1-1Bayer LeverkusenMar 11UEF

Squad & Injuries

Crystal Palace

31 available

Attackers9

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Arsenal

34 available

Attackers10

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Arsenal

Draw or Arsenal

Arsenal

Under 2.5

No

Under 1.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Crystal Palace

Arsenal

Squad & Injuries

Crystal Palace

Arsenal