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Predictions graded

Bolton Wanderers4Stockport County1

HT 1–1Sun 24 May 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 18–7On targetOn target 9–4CornersCorners 5–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 May 2026, 08:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Stockport County are the stronger side based on recent H2H dominance and form, making Draw or Stockport County the safest play.

Both teams to score is likely, but the best value lies in 'Win Both Halves – No' at 1.22, given neither team has achieved this in any of the last five meetings.

Context

Stockport won 5-0, 1-0, and 2-0 in three of the last four H2Hs.
- Bolton managed only two goals across Stockport's three wins.
- The most recent meeting in April 2026 ended 2-2, but Stockport still avoided defeat.
Goalkeeper Jack Bonham stated on 16 May that the final is a chance to end years of frustration.
- Bolton lost a previous play-off final and missed out in another semi-final in the last three campaigns.
- The club has not been in the Championship since 2019.
Bolton's official allocation is 36,241, with over 20,000 sold by 18 May.
- Stockport were reported to have an initial 22,000 allocation with scope to increase toward 36,000.
- The match will be played in front of a balanced, high-noise Wembley crowd.
Stockport's last five: 4W, 0D, 1L (including play-off semi-final wins over Stevenage).
- Bolton's last five: 2W, 2D, 1L (including play-off semi-final wins over Bradford).
- Stockport scored 10 goals in those five games; Bolton scored 8.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Stockport County

1.45fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Stockport's recent H2H dominance and Bolton's high draw rate make Draw or Stockport County a strong play at a neutral venue.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Both sides have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches, and the neutral venue encourages open play, making both teams scoring likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stockport County's strong H2H dominance and superior recent form give them a slight edge in this neutral-site final.
- Stockport County have won 3 of the last 4 H2H meetings, including a 5-0 and 2-0 victory.
- Bolton are winless in the last 4 H2H meetings (0W, 1D, 3L).
- Stockport County's recent form (last 5 matches): 4W, 0D, 1L; Bolton's: 2W, 2D, 1L.
- Stockport County averaged 2.0 goals scored in last 5 matches; Bolton averaged 1.6.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostStockport CountyEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bolton's inability to beat Stockport recently, combined with their high draw rate and the neutral venue, makes Stockport County or Draw highly probable.
- Bolton have failed to beat Stockport County in the last 4 meetings (0W, 1D, 3L).
- Stockport County have lost only 1 of their last 5 matches (4W, 1L).
- Bolton have drawn 18 of 46 league matches this season, the highest in the division.
- This is a neutral-site final at Wembley, negating Bolton's strong home record.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Stockport CountyEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stockport County's slightly better first-half performance and H2H halftime leads give them a marginal edge to lead at the break.
- Stockport County led at halftime in 33% of last 15 matches; Bolton in 27%.
- Stockport County scored first-half goals in 8 of last 15; Bolton in 6 of last 15.
- In the last 5 H2H, Stockport County led at halftime twice, Bolton never.
- Stockport County's first-half goal difference: +0.2; Bolton's: 0.0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostStockport CountyEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The teams are evenly matched in second halves, and the high-stakes final often leads to a cautious approach after the break.
- Bolton's second-half record in last 15: 5W, 5D, 5L.
- Stockport County's second-half record in last 15: 6W, 4D, 5L.
- The most recent H2H second half ended 2-2.
- Both teams have similar second-half goal differences (Bolton +0.1, Stockport +0.2).
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight, tense final could see a stalemate at both intervals, though the probability remains low given the attacking talent.
- Bolton drew 18 league matches this season, the most in the division.
- The most recent H2H was a draw (2-2).
- Both teams have drawn 3 of their last 15 matches at halftime.
- Playoff finals often start cautiously.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the competitive nature of the fixture and historical data, it is highly unlikely either team will dominate both halves.
- Neither team has won both halves in any of the last 5 H2H meetings.
- Bolton have won both halves in only 1 of their last 15 matches.
- Stockport County have won both halves in 2 of their last 15 matches.
- The match is a closely contested playoff final.
BetBugs · Win Both Halvesnot gradableNoEstimated chance85%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and the attacking stats suggest a good chance of at least 3 goals.
- Both teams average 1.9 goals scored per match over the last 15 games.
- Bolton's last 5 matches have seen 3+ goals in 3 of them.
- Stockport County's last 5 matches have seen 3+ goals in 3 of them.
- The most recent H2H (April 2026) ended 2-2.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides consistently find the net, and the neutral venue encourages open play, making both teams scoring likely.
- Bolton have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Stockport County have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Both teams scored in the most recent H2H (2-2 in April 2026).
- Bolton's clean sheet rate in last 15: 20%; Stockport County's: 27%.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stockport County's tendency to score early, combined with Bolton's occasional first-half vulnerability, supports at least one goal before the break.
- Stockport County average 0.9 first-half goals in last 15 matches.
- Bolton average 0.5 first-half goals in last 15 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 had a first-half goal.
- Stockport County led at halftime in 33% of recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been more open for both teams recently, suggesting a decent chance of multiple goals after halftime.
- Bolton's last 5 matches averaged 2.2 second-half goals.
- Stockport County's last 5 matches averaged 1.8 second-half goals.
- The most recent H2H had 3 second-half goals.
- Both teams tend to concede more in the second half (Bolton 0.9, Stockport 0.5 first half vs 0.9 and 0.5 second half).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, and the neutral venue should maintain their attacking width, pushing the total over 9.5.
- Bolton average 6.2 corners per match; Stockport County average 6.2.
- Combined average corners in Bolton's matches: 12.4; Stockport County's: 12.4.
- In the last 5 H2H, total corners were 10, 9, 8, 9, 11 (avg 9.4).
- Both teams' recent matches have seen high corner counts (e.g., Bolton's last match had 18 corners).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The high stakes of a promotion final could lead to more fouls and cards, though the season averages are just below the line.
- Bolton average 1.5 yellow cards per match; Stockport County average 1.9.
- Combined average cards in Bolton's matches: 3.0; Stockport County's: 3.8.
- The most recent H2H had 3 yellow cards.
- Playoff finals often see increased tension and cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance45%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

D2-2BoltonvStockport CountyApr 6, 2026LEA

L2-0Stockport CountyvBoltonAug 3, 2025LEA

W0-1BoltonvStockport CountyMar 15, 2025LEA

L5-0Stockport CountyvBoltonNov 9, 2024LEA

W0-2Stockport CountyvBoltonNov 14, 2023EFL

Bolton Wanderers: 2 clean sheetsStockport County: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

League One 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Bolton Wanderers Promotion - League One (Play Offs)	46	19	18	9	70-52	75	LDDWL
3	Stockport County Promotion - League One (Play Offs)	46	22	11	13	71-58	77	WLWLD

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Bolton Wanderers

W1-0BradfordMay 14LEA

W1-0BradfordMay 9LEA

L2-3LutonMay 2LEA

D1-1BradfordApr 25LEA

D3-3HuddersfieldApr 18LEA

W5-1StevenageApr 14LEA

L0-2CardiffApr 11LEA

D2-2Stockport CountyApr 6LEA

W2-1PlymouthApr 3LEA

L0-1Port ValeMar 21LEA

D0-0DoncasterMar 17LEA

D2-2RotherhamMar 14LEA

W3-2WycombeMar 7LEA

W5-1Exeter CityFeb 28LEA

D2-2BlackpoolFeb 21LEA

Stockport County

W2-0StevenageMay 13LEA

W1-0StevenageMay 9LEA

W3-1BarnsleyMay 2LEA

L1-2Port ValeApr 28LEA

W3-1PeterboroughApr 25LEA

L0-1Mansfield TownApr 21LEA

D3-3Exeter CityApr 18LEA

W2-0AFC WimbledonApr 15LEA

L1-3LutonApr 12EFL

D2-2BoltonApr 6LEA

W3-0WycombeApr 3LEA

W3-0AFC WimbledonMar 28LEA

D1-1LutonMar 21LEA

W2-1NorthamptonMar 17LEA

L1-3LincolnMar 14LEA

Squad & Injuries

Bolton Wanderers

30 available

Attackers9

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Stockport County

36 available

Attackers8

Midfielders14

Defenders12

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Draw or Stockport County

Yes

Over 0.5

Over 9.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Bolton Wanderers

Stockport County

Squad & Injuries

Bolton Wanderers

Stockport County