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Predictions graded

Mallorca3Real Oviedo0

HT 1–0Sat 23 May 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 21–7On targetOn target 6–0CornersCorners 4–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 May 2026, 18:59 · Europe/Bucharest

A low-scoring, physical relegation battle is expected, with Under 1.5 first-half goals (+9% edge) and Under 2.5 full-time goals (+8% edge) offering the best value.

Mallorca's home form and Oviedo's away struggles make a home win or draw likely, but the odds on Mallorca outright are too short to back.

Context

El Pais reported Mallorca dismissed Jagoba Arrasate on 23 Feb 2026.
- Mallorca are now under a different manager, with limited time to implement new ideas.
- The team has shown mixed results since the change, with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses in their last 9 matches.
RTVE reported Paunovic was dismissed on 9 Oct 2025 after eight league rounds.
- Almada was appointed on 16 Dec 2025, making him the second replacement this season.
- Oviedo have won only 2 of 18 away matches, conceding 39 goals.
Oviedo's away record: 2W-4D-12L, 17 goals for, 39 against in 18 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away games.
- Only 2 away wins all season, against Celta Vigo and a struggling side.
Mallorca home record: 8W-6D-4L, 28 goals for, 21 against.
- They have won 3 of their last 5 home matches, including a 2-1 win over Real Madrid.
- Only 4 home losses all season, with a 22% loss rate.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's strong home form and Oviedo's poor away record give the hosts a clear edge, supported by the structural home/away edge signal.
- Mallorca home record: 8W-6D-4L, 28 goals for, 21 against in 18 home matches this season.
- Real Oviedo away record: 2W-4D-12L, 17 goals for, 39 against in 18 away matches.
- Mallorca last 5 home matches: 3W-1D-1L, including wins over Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano.
- Real Oviedo last 5 away matches: 1W-1D-3L, with only 3 goals scored.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMallorcaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's low home loss rate combined with Oviedo's high away loss rate and H2H history of draws strongly supports Mallorca avoiding defeat.
- Mallorca home record: only 4 losses in 18 home matches (22% loss rate).
- Real Oviedo away record: 12 losses in 18 away matches (67% loss rate).
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4 draws and 1 Mallorca win, no Oviedo wins.
- Mallorca home form last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMallorca or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's slight edge in halftime leads and home advantage could see them ahead at the break, but both teams' low first-half scoring makes this a low-confidence call.
- Mallorca led at halftime in 33% of matches this season, Oviedo in 27%.
- Mallorca home first half record: 0.5 goals for, 0.6 against on average.
- Oviedo away first half record: 0.5 goals for, 0.7 against on average.
- Last 5 H2H: only 1 match had a halftime lead (Mallorca 1-0 in 2019).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonMallorcaEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half is likely given both teams' cautious approaches, and Mallorca's home strength could see them edge a win after a draw at the break.
- Mallorca home matches: 6 draws at halftime, 4 of those ended in Mallorca wins.
- Oviedo away matches: 4 draws at halftime, only 1 ended in an Oviedo win.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at halftime, 1 ended in a Mallorca win.
- Mallorca tends to improve in second halves at home.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / MallorcaEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low-scoring H2H history and both teams' offensive struggles, especially Oviedo's away scoring, point to a match with fewer than 3 goals.
- Mallorca home matches average 2.72 total goals (28 for, 21 against in 18 games).
- Real Oviedo away matches average 3.11 total goals (17 for, 39 against in 18 games).
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4 matches had under 2.5 goals, including two 0-0 draws.
- Both teams average under 1.5 goals scored per game overall this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Oviedo's poor away scoring record and Mallorca's occasional home clean sheets make it likely at least one team fails to score.
- Real Oviedo failed to score in 3 of last 5 away matches.
- Mallorca kept clean sheets in 2 of last 5 home matches.
- H2H last 5 meetings: both teams scored in only 2 matches.
- Oviedo averages 0.94 goals per away game this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Oviedo's away scoring woes give Mallorca a chance at a clean sheet, though Mallorca's own defensive inconsistency keeps confidence low.
- Mallorca kept clean sheets in 2 of last 5 home matches (vs Girona and Rayo Vallecano).
- Real Oviedo failed to score in 3 of last 5 away matches.
- Oviedo averages 0.94 goals per away game this season.
- H2H last meeting at Oviedo: 0-0 draw.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonReal Oviedo not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have very low first-half scoring rates, and H2H history shows almost no first-half goals, making under 1.5 highly probable.
- Mallorca home first half goals: 0.5 for, 0.6 against on average.
- Oviedo away first half goals: 0.5 for, 0.7 against on average.
- Combined first half average: 1.15 goals per match.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 matches had 0 first-half goals, 1 had 1 goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be higher scoring for both teams, but overall low goal output and defensive focus in a relegation clash limit confidence.
- Mallorca home second half goals: 1.06 on average (28 total home goals, 0.5 first half).
- Oviedo away second half goals: 1.44 on average (17 total away goals, 0.5 first half).
- Combined second half average: 2.5 goals per match.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 matches had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average under 5 corners per match, and their combined average is below 9.5, suggesting a low corner count.
- Mallorca home corners average: 4.1 per match, opponent corners: 5.1.
- Oviedo away corners average: 3.8 per match, opponent corners: 5.2.
- Combined average corners: 9.1 per match.
- Last 5 H2H: corner data unavailable, but both teams rank low in corners won.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high-stakes relegation battle should lead to a physical match, pushing the total cards over 4.5 based on both teams' disciplinary records.
- Mallorca home yellow cards average: 2.5 per match, opponent: 2.3.
- Oviedo away yellow cards average: 2.3 per match, opponent: 2.1.
- Combined average cards: 4.8 per match.
- Relegation clash likely to increase intensity and fouls.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1W · 4D · 0W

D0-0OviedovMallorcaDec 5, 2025LL

D0-0MallorcavOviedoMar 20, 2021SEG

D2-2OviedovMallorcaJan 3, 2021SEG

W1-0MallorcavOviedoMar 9, 2019SEG

D1-1OviedovMallorcaNov 4, 2018SEG

Mallorca unbeaten in 5 meetingsMallorca: 3 clean sheetsReal Oviedo: 2 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

League Table

La Liga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
19	Mallorca Relegation - LaLiga2	37	10	9	18	44-57	39	LLDWL
20	Real Oviedo Relegation - LaLiga2	37	6	11	20	26-57	29	LLDLL

10pt gap between teamsMallorca in relegation zoneReal Oviedo in relegation zone

Recent Form

Mallorca

L0-2LevanteMay 17LL

L1-3GetafeMay 13LL

D1-1VillarrealMay 10LL

W1-0GironaMay 1LL

L1-2AlavesApr 25LL

D1-1ValenciaApr 21LL

W3-0Rayo VallecanoApr 12LL

W2-1Real MadridApr 4LL

L1-2ElcheMar 21LL

W2-1EspanyolMar 15LL

D2-2OsasunaMar 7LL

L0-1Real SociedadFeb 28LL

L0-2Celta VigoFeb 22LL

L1-2Real BetisFeb 15LL

L0-3BarcelonaFeb 7LL

Real Oviedo

L0-1AlavesMay 17LL

L0-2Real MadridMay 14LL

D0-0GetafeMay 10LL

L0-3Real BetisMay 3LL

L1-2ElcheApr 26LL

D1-1VillarrealApr 23LL

W3-0Celta VigoApr 12LL

W1-0SevillaApr 5LL

L2-4LevanteMar 21LL

W1-0ValenciaMar 14LL

D1-1EspanyolMar 9LL

L0-3Rayo VallecanoMar 4LL

L0-1Atletico MadridFeb 28LL

D3-3Real SociedadFeb 21LL

L1-2Athletic ClubFeb 15LL

Squad & Injuries

Mallorca

34 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders14

Goalkeeper5

Real Oviedo

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders12

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 1.5

Under 2.5

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

Mallorca

Mallorca or Draw

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Mallorca

Real Oviedo

Squad & Injuries

Mallorca

Real Oviedo