Freiburg vs Aston Villa: result, stats and head-to-head

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aston Villa's superior Europa League campaign (7W-0D-1L) and Unai Emery's proven knockout expertise give them a slight edge, but Freiburg's perfect home record in the competition adds uncertainty.
- Aston Villa Europa League form: 7 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss in last 8 (21 pts), 14 goals scored, 6 conceded.
- Freiburg Europa League form: 5 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in last 8 (17 pts), 10 goals scored, 4 conceded.
- Villa's away record in Europa League: 3 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, 6 goals scored, 3 conceded in 4 matches.
- Freiburg's home record in Europa League: 4 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 6 goals scored, 1 conceded in 4 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAston VillaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Villa's strong overall record and Emery's tactical nous make them unlikely to lose in regulation, though Freiburg's home strength prevents a higher confidence.
- Aston Villa have lost only 1 of their last 8 Europa League matches.
- Freiburg have drawn 2 of their last 8 Europa League matches.
- Villa's away form: 3 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss in Europa League.
- Freiburg's home form: 4 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses in Europa League.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAston Villa or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles with frequent draws at the break and minimal goal differences, suggesting a stalemate at half-time.
- Freiburg have been drawing at half-time in 47% of their last 15 matches (7 out of 15).
- Aston Villa have been drawing at half-time in 40% of their last 15 matches (6 out of 15).
- Freiburg's first-half goal difference in last 15: +0.2 per game.
- Villa's first-half goal difference in last 15: +0.2 per game.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong defensive records in the Europa League, with Freiburg conceding only 4 goals in 8 matches and Villa conceding 6, suggesting a tight final.
- Freiburg's Europa League matches average 1.75 total goals (10 scored, 4 conceded in 8 games).
- Aston Villa's Europa League matches average 2.5 total goals (14 scored, 6 conceded in 8 games).
- Freiburg have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 8 Europa League games.
- Villa have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 8 Europa League games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been solid defensively and rarely fail to score, making a 0-0 or 1-0 result plausible, but the attacking quality on both sides keeps this a coin flip.
- Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their Europa League matches (4 out of 8).
- Aston Villa have kept a clean sheet in 37.5% of their Europa League matches (3 out of 8).
- Freiburg failed to score in only 1 of their 8 Europa League matches.
- Villa failed to score in only 1 of their 8 Europa League matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, with low first-half scoring averages and a pattern of level scores at the break, making a low-scoring first half likely.
- Freiburg average 0.9 first-half goals in their last 15 matches across all competitions.
- Aston Villa average 0.8 first-half goals in their last 15 matches across all competitions.
- Freiburg have led at half-time in only 33% of their last 15 matches.
- Villa have led at half-time in only 33% of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to increase attacking intensity after the break, but the small sample size and potential for a tight final keep confidence low.
- Freiburg's second-half goals in recent Europa League matches: 2 vs Braga, 1 vs Celta Vigo, 1 vs Genk.
- Aston Villa's second-half goals in recent Europa League matches: 3 vs Nottingham Forest, 1 vs Bologna, 1 vs Lille.
- Freiburg have scored 60% of their Europa League goals in the second half (6 of 10).
- Villa have scored 57% of their Europa League goals in the second half (8 of 14).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined average corners (Freiburg 3.5 + Villa opponents 4.3 = 7.8) suggests a total under 9.5, but corner counts can be volatile in finals.
- Freiburg average 3.5 corners per game in their last 15 matches.
- Aston Villa average 4.8 corners per game in their last 15 matches.
- Freiburg's opponents average 4.5 corners per game in the same period.
- Villa's opponents average 4.3 corners per game in the same period.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have disciplined records with low card counts, and a European final often sees lenient refereeing, but the stakes could increase tension.
- Freiburg average 1.7 yellow cards per game in their last 15 matches.
- Aston Villa average 1.3 yellow cards per game in their last 15 matches.
- Freiburg have received 0 red cards in their last 15 matches.
- Villa have received 0 red cards in their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Freiburg Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	8	5	2	1	10-4	17	LWWDW
2	Aston Villa Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	8	7	0	1	14-6	21	WWWWW

Freiburg0Aston Villa3

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Result2 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

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Freiburg

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