Jupiler Pro LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Charleroi1Leuven1

HT 0–1Tue 19 May 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–357%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 22–11On targetOn target 7–2CornersCorners 14–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 May 2026, 23:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Charleroi's midseason coaching change and Leuven's strong H2H record make a draw the most balanced outcome, with our 35% estimate offering a +9pt edge over the market's 26% implied probability at odds of 3.80.

Both teams are likely to score given defensive frailties, but the first half should be tight, with under 1.5 goals a strong probability. Avoid short-odds markets like double chance and win both halves, which offer no value.

Context

De Mil departed on 10 Dec 2025; Cornelis was officially appointed on 6 Jan 2026 after an interim period.
- Charleroi's home record this season is 4W-5D-6L, with 20 goals scored and 21 conceded.
- They have lost 3 of their last 5 home matches, including a 2-0 defeat to Leuven in March 2026.
Across the last 17 H2H matches, Leuven lead 7 wins to 4, with 6 draws.
- Leuven won 2-0 at Charleroi in March 2026 and had a 10-match unbeaten run against them before April 2026.
- Three of the last five H2H games saw both teams score, but Leuven have often been defensively solid in this matchup.
Leuven's away record: 5W-2D-8L, with just 14 goals scored and 25 conceded.
- They have trailed at half-time in only 7% of away matches, the lowest rate in the league.
- In their last 5 away games, all first halves had under 1.5 goals, and 3 were 0-0 at the break.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are mid-table with similar points and inconsistent form; Charleroi's home edge is offset by Leuven's strong H2H record, making a draw the most balanced outcome.
- Charleroi home record: 4W-5D-6L, 20GF-21GA in 15 home matches this season
- Leuven away record: 5W-2D-8L, 14GF-25GA in 15 away matches this season
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 2 Leuven wins, 1 Charleroi win; 3 of 5 ended with both teams scoring
- Charleroi last 5 home matches: 2W-1D-2L; Leuven last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Charleroi's home resilience and Leuven's poor away form suggest the hosts are unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance on Charleroi or Draw.
- Charleroi have lost only 6 of 15 home matches this season
- Leuven have won only 5 of 15 away matches, with 8 losses
- Charleroi are unbeaten in 3 of last 5 home matches (W2 D1 L2)
- Leuven have failed to win in 4 of last 5 away matches (D1 L3)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCharleroi or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, with Leuven particularly resilient early in away games, suggesting a level first half is probable.
- Charleroi first half home record: led at HT in 27% of matches, trailed in 33%
- Leuven first half away record: led at HT in 33% of matches, trailed in only 7%
- Last 5 H2H: 3 were draws at half-time
- Charleroi last 5 home first halves: 2 draws, 2 wins, 1 loss; Leuven last 5 away first halves: 3 draws, 1 win, 1 loss
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a first-half draw is plausible, both teams' inconsistent second-half performances make a full-time draw less certain, though still a possible outcome given their records.
- Charleroi home HT-FT: 2 draws at HT and FT in last 5 home matches
- Leuven away HT-FT: 2 draws at HT and FT in last 5 away matches
- Last 5 H2H: 1 match ended as Draw/Draw
- Both teams have a tendency for first-half draws, but converting to full-time draws is less common
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side has demonstrated the consistency to win both halves, with historical data strongly indicating this outcome is unlikely.
- Charleroi have won both halves in only 1 of 15 home matches this season
- Leuven have won both halves in only 1 of 15 away matches this season
- Neither team has won both halves in any of the last 5 H2H meetings
- Both teams' goal differences and form suggest they rarely dominate for a full 90 minutes
BetBugs · Win Both Halvesnot gradableNoEstimated chance85%

Goals1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits and recent H2H trends point to a match with at least three goals, driven by defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.
- Charleroi home matches average 2.73 total goals (20GF, 21GA in 15 games)
- Leuven away matches average 2.60 total goals (14GF, 25GA in 15 games)
- Last 5 H2H: 3 matches had over 2.5 goals, including the most recent 2-1
- Charleroi last 5 home matches: 3 had over 2.5 goals; Leuven last 5 away: 3 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Charleroi consistently find the net at home while Leuven rarely keep clean sheets on the road, making both teams scoring a strong likelihood.
- Charleroi have scored in 12 of 15 home matches this season
- Leuven have conceded in 13 of 15 away matches this season
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Charleroi last 5 home: both teams scored in 4; Leuven last 5 away: both teams scored in 3
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring rates for both teams, especially Leuven's stingy away defense early on, strongly support under 1.5 goals in the first half.
- Charleroi average 0.5 first-half goals at home; concede 0.7
- Leuven average 0.7 first-half goals away; concede only 0.2
- Last 5 H2H first halves: 4 had under 1.5 goals
- Charleroi last 5 home first halves: 4 had under 1.5 goals; Leuven last 5 away first halves: all 5 had under 1.5 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and their combined averages hover around the 9.5 line, but recent H2H data is mixed, warranting low confidence.
- Charleroi average 6.1 corners per match overall; at home they average 6.3 in last 5
- Leuven average 5.6 corners per match overall; away they average 5.2 in last 5
- Combined average corners in Charleroi home matches: 11.2; in Leuven away matches: 10.8
- Last 5 H2H: corner counts were 7, 9, 11, 8, 10 (average 9.0)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Card averages are near the 4.5 threshold, with Leuven's higher disciplinary issues away from home slightly tilting the probability toward over, but the margin is thin.
- Charleroi average 1.9 yellow cards per match; at home they average 2.0 in last 5
- Leuven average 2.6 yellow cards per match; away they average 2.8 in last 5
- Combined average cards in Charleroi home matches: 4.5; in Leuven away matches: 5.0
- Last 5 H2H: total cards were 5, 4, 6, 3, 5 (average 4.6)
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W0-2OH LeuvenvCharleroiApr 25, 2026JUP

L0-2CharleroivOH LeuvenMar 14, 2026JUP

D2-2OH LeuvenvCharleroiJul 27, 2025JUP

W2-1CharleroivOH LeuvenMay 24, 2025JUP

D0-0OH LeuvenvCharleroiMar 28, 2025JUP

Charleroi: 2 clean sheetsLeuven: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Charleroi Qualifying round	30	9	7	14	38-42	34	WWWDL
12	Leuven Qualifying round	30	9	7	14	32-43	34	LDLLL

Recent Form

Charleroi

W1-0AntwerpMay 10JUP

W2-0GenkMay 2JUP

W2-0OH LeuvenApr 25JUP

D1-1GenkApr 21JUP

L1-2Standard LiegeApr 18JUP

W2-1AntwerpApr 10JUP

L0-2KVC WesterloApr 5JUP

L0-1Zulte WaregemMar 22JUP

L0-2OH LeuvenMar 14JUP

D2-2DenderMar 7JUP

L1-2Club Brugge KVMar 1JUP

L1-2KVC WesterloFeb 22JUP

L2-3GentFeb 14JUP

L1-4Union St. GilloiseFeb 11CUP

L3-4Cercle BruggeFeb 7JUP

Leuven

L1-2Standard LiegeMay 8JUP

D3-3KVC WesterloMay 2JUP

L0-2CharleroiApr 25JUP

L0-2KVC WesterloApr 21JUP

L0-2AntwerpApr 18JUP

D0-0GenkApr 12JUP

L1-3Standard LiegeApr 4JUP

W1-0AntwerpMar 22JUP

W2-0CharleroiMar 14JUP

L0-1KVC WesterloMar 7JUP

L1-5AnderlechtFeb 28JUP

L1-2Club Brugge KVFeb 21JUP

W3-2DenderFeb 14JUP

W3-1GentFeb 7JUP

D2-2KV MechelenFeb 1JUP

Squad & Injuries

Charleroi

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Leuven

33 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Yes

Charleroi or Draw

No

Under 1.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Charleroi

Leuven

Squad & Injuries

Charleroi

Leuven