Premier LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Arsenal1Burnley0

HT 1–0Mon 18 May 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 13–5On targetOn target 3–0CornersCorners 3–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 23:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Arsenal are expected to dominate Burnley based on a lopsided H2H record and superior league form, but betting value is extremely limited.

The only market with a marginal edge is 'Both Teams to Score – No' (our 68% vs. implied 66.7%), though Burnley's occasional scoring threat adds risk. Avoid heavily favored lines like Arsenal win or Over 2.5 goals, as odds are too short to offer value.

Context

Arsenal's home goals conceded average is 0.61 per game, the best in the league.
- They have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Burnley have failed to score in 4 of their last 10 matches, including against top sides like Manchester City and Brighton.
Burnley's away record: 2 wins, 3 draws, 13 losses.
- They concede an average of 2.5 goals per away game.
- In their last 5 away matches, they have conceded 14 goals.
Last 3 H2H results: Burnley 0-5 Arsenal, Arsenal 3-1 Burnley, Burnley 0-2 Arsenal.
- Arsenal have kept clean sheets in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
- Burnley have scored only 1 goal in the last 5 H2H encounters.
Burnley are 5 points from safety with only a few games remaining.
- They have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, showing poor form even with high stakes.
- Arsenal are top of the table and motivated to secure the title, so they will not ease off.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Arsenal

1.09fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 92%

0.0ppshort

Arsenal's dominant H2H record, superior league position, and strong home form against Burnley's poor away defense make a home win highly likely.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Arsenal or Draw

1.01fair 1.09

BetBugs 92% · Market 99%

0.0ppshort

Arsenal's dominant home form and Burnley's poor away record make an Arsenal win or draw extremely probable.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.18fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Arsenal's tendency to score early (0.7 first-half goals/game) and Burnley's first-half defensive frailties (1.1 conceded/game) support Over 0.5, but odds are very short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's dominant H2H record, superior league position, and strong home form against Burnley's poor away defense make a home win highly likely.
- Arsenal have won 17 of 23 H2H meetings, including 5-0 and 3-1 wins in the last 3 surfaced encounters.
- Arsenal are top of the league with 79 points, while Burnley are 19th with 21 points and a -36 goal difference.
- Arsenal's home record this season: 14 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, with 40 goals scored and only 11 conceded in 18 matches.
- Burnley's away record: 2 wins, 3 draws, 13 losses, conceding 45 goals in 18 away games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonArsenalEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's superior first-half performance and Burnley's frequent halftime deficits suggest Arsenal are likely to lead at the break.
- Arsenal led at halftime in 40% of their matches this season, compared to Burnley's 20%.
- Burnley trailed at halftime in 53% of their matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Arsenal led at halftime twice, with two draws and one Burnley lead (in a match Burnley lost 3-1).
- Arsenal's home first-half record: 0.7 goals scored, 0.2 conceded on average.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonArsenalEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's dominant home form and Burnley's poor away record make an Arsenal win or draw extremely probable.
- Arsenal have lost only 2 home league games all season (14 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses).
- Burnley have won only 2 away games all season, with 13 losses.
- H2H: Arsenal are unbeaten in the last 5 meetings (4 wins, 1 draw).
- Arsenal's overall record: 24 wins, 7 draws, 5 losses.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonArsenal or DrawEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's tendency to control matches from the start against weaker opponents supports a halftime/fulltime double.
- Arsenal led at halftime in 40% of matches and won 67% overall.
- Burnley trailed at halftime in 53% and lost 64% of matches.
- In the last 5 H2H, Arsenal led at halftime and won twice (2-0, 3-1).
- Arsenal's home HT/FT record: 8 wins when leading at half, 6 wins when drawing at half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableArsenal/ArsenalEstimated chance50%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's strong home attack and Burnley's leaky away defense, combined with H2H trends, support over 2.5 goals.
- Arsenal average 1.2 goals per game overall but 2.22 goals per game at home this season (40 goals in 18 home matches).
- Burnley concede 2.2 goals per game on average, and 2.5 goals per away game (45 conceded in 18 away matches).
- Last 3 H2H meetings: 5-0, 3-1, 2-0, all featuring at least 2 goals, with two exceeding 2.5 goals.
- Arsenal's last 5 home matches: 3-0, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2, 2-0, averaging 2.2 total goals per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's solid home defense and Burnley's struggles to score against top teams, especially in this fixture, make a clean sheet for Arsenal probable.
- Arsenal have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Burnley have failed to score in 4 of their last 10 matches, including against top sides like Manchester City and Brighton.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Burnley scored only once (a 3-1 Arsenal win), with Arsenal keeping 4 clean sheets.
- Arsenal concede only 0.61 goals per home game this season (11 in 18 matches).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's strong home defense and Burnley's offensive struggles, particularly in H2H matchups, point to a home clean sheet.
- Arsenal have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 10 matches.
- Burnley have failed to score in 4 of their last 10 matches.
- Arsenal's home defensive record: 11 goals conceded in 18 games, with 9 clean sheets.
- H2H: Arsenal kept clean sheets in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBurnley not to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's tendency to score early and Burnley's vulnerability in the first half make over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Arsenal average 0.7 first-half goals per game overall, and have scored in the first half in 6 of their last 10 matches.
- Burnley concede 1.1 first-half goals per game on average, and have conceded in the first half in 7 of their last 10 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, there was a first-half goal in 3 matches.
- Arsenal led at halftime in 40% of their matches this season.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley's defensive fatigue and Arsenal's ability to score late could lead to over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Arsenal score 0.5 second-half goals on average (1.2 total - 0.7 first half), while Burnley concede 1.1 second-half goals on average (2.2 total - 1.1 first half).
- In Arsenal's last 5 home matches, second-half goals: 3, 0, 2, 1, 2, averaging 1.6 per match.
- Burnley's away matches average 2.5 total goals, with many coming after halftime.
- H2H: Last 3 meetings had second-half goals: 2, 1, 2.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' match averages hover around 10-11 total corners, and Arsenal's attacking style at home could push the total over 9.5.
- Arsenal average 5.8 corners per game, while Burnley average 3.9 corners per game.
- Combined average corners in Arsenal matches: 11.2 (5.8 for, 5.4 against).
- Combined average corners in Burnley matches: 10.5 (3.9 for, 6.6 against).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, corner counts were 5, 7, 8, 3, 6, averaging 5.8 per match, but recent form suggests higher totals.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

4W · 1D · 0W

W0-2BurnleyvArsenalNov 1, 2025PL

W0-5BurnleyvArsenalFeb 17, 2024PL

W3-1ArsenalvBurnleyNov 11, 2023PL

D0-0ArsenalvBurnleyJan 23, 2022PL

W0-1BurnleyvArsenalSep 18, 2021PL

Arsenal unbeaten in 5 meetingsArsenal: 4 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier League 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal Promotion - Champions League (League phase)	36	24	7	5	68-26	79	WWWLL
19	Burnley Relegation - Championship	36	4	9	23	37-73	21	DLLLL

58pt gap between teamsArsenal leads the leagueBurnley in relegation zone

Recent Form

Arsenal

W1-0West HamMay 10PL

W1-0Atletico MadridMay 5UEF

W3-0FulhamMay 2PL

D1-1Atletico MadridApr 29UEF

W1-0NewcastleApr 25PL

L1-2Manchester CityApr 19PL

D0-0Sporting CPApr 15UEF

L1-2BournemouthApr 11PL

W1-0Sporting CPApr 7UEF

L1-2SouthamptonApr 4FAC

L0-2Manchester CityMar 22LEA

W2-0Bayer LeverkusenMar 17UEF

W2-0EvertonMar 14PL

D1-1Bayer LeverkusenMar 11UEF

W2-1Mansfield TownMar 7FAC

Burnley

D2-2Aston VillaMay 10PL

L1-3LeedsMay 1PL

L0-1Manchester CityApr 22PL

L1-4Nottingham ForestApr 19PL

L0-2BrightonApr 11PL

L1-3FulhamMar 21PL

D0-0BournemouthMar 14PL

L0-2EvertonMar 3PL

L3-4BrentfordFeb 28PL

D1-1ChelseaFeb 21PL

L1-2Mansfield TownFeb 14FAC

W3-2Crystal PalaceFeb 11PL

L0-2West HamFeb 7PL

L0-3SunderlandFeb 2PL

D2-2TottenhamJan 24PL

Squad & Injuries

Arsenal

34 available

Attackers8

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper5

Burnley

31 available

Attackers8

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Arsenal

Arsenal or Draw

Arsenal

Arsenal at half-time / Arsenal at full-time

Over 2.5

Over 0.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Arsenal

Burnley

Squad & Injuries

Arsenal

Burnley