EredivisieFull time

Predictions graded

Utrecht2Fortuna Sittard0

HT 1–0Sun 17 May 2026, 12:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges5–363%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 18–13On targetOn target 5–2CornersCorners 2–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 17:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Utrecht’s strong home form clashes with Fortuna’s poor away record, but recent H2H dominance by Fortuna adds uncertainty.

The best value lies in over 3.5 goals, where our 60% estimate beats the implied 51.3%, driven by both teams’ high-scoring trends and Fortuna’s leaky defense. Avoid short-priced favorites like Utrecht win or over 2.5 goals, as the odds leave no margin.

Context

Last 3 league H2Hs: Fortuna won 1-0, drew 0-0, and won 5-2.
- Utrecht were shut out in the last two meetings, both at Fortuna's ground.
- The 5-2 win came at Utrecht's stadium, showing Fortuna can score heavily there.
Utrecht home: 9W-3D-4L, 29 scored, 13 conceded.
- Fortuna away: 4W-2D-10L, 21 scored, 32 conceded.
- Utrecht won 4 of last 5 home matches, including clean sheets against NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar.
Fortuna away matches average 3.31 total goals (21 scored, 32 conceded in 16 games).
- Utrecht home matches average 2.63 total goals.
- Last 5 away for Fortuna: 4 matches over 2.5 goals, including a 4-1 loss at Ajax.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Utrecht

1.49fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 67%

0.0ppshort

Utrecht's strong home form (9W-3D-4L, +16 GD) contrasts with Fortuna's poor away record (4W-2D-10L, -11 GD), but the odds are too short to offer value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Utrecht or Draw

1.15fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Utrecht are unbeaten in 12 of 16 home games (75%), while Fortuna have failed to win in 12 of 16 away (75%), making a home win or draw highly probable.

Total Goals HomewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 1.5

1.36fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 73.5%

−8.5ppshort

Utrecht's strong home attack, averaging 1.81 goals per game, faces a Fortuna defense that concedes heavily on the road, making over 1.5 home goals a solid expectation.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a high frequency of first-half goals in their respective home/away splits, with Fortuna's away matches seeing a first-half goal in 100% of recent games, supporting over 0.5 first-half goals.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 1.5

1.57fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

The combination of Utrecht's second-half scoring at home and Fortuna's second-half defensive frailties on the road suggests a high likelihood of multiple goals after the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Utrecht's strong home form (9 wins, +16 goal difference) contrasts sharply with Fortuna's poor away record (4 wins, -11 goal difference), giving Utrecht a clear structural home/away edge.
- Utrecht home record: 9W-3D-4L, 29 goals scored, 13 conceded in 16 matches
- Fortuna away record: 4W-2D-10L, 21 goals scored, 32 conceded in 16 matches
- Utrecht last 5 home matches: 4W-0D-1L, including wins over NAC Breda, Telstar, GO Ahead Eagles, AZ Alkmaar
- Fortuna last 5 away matches: 1W-0D-4L, only win against FC Volendam (rank 16)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonUtrechtEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Utrecht's strong home resilience (75% unbeaten) with Fortuna's poor away form (75% non-wins) makes a Utrecht win or draw highly probable, supported by the structural home/away edge.
- Utrecht home record: 12 of 16 matches without defeat (9W-3D)
- Fortuna away record: 12 of 16 matches without a win (4W-2D-10L)
- H2H last 3 at Utrecht: 2 draws and 1 Fortuna win, but Utrecht's current home form is much stronger
- Utrecht last 15 overall: 8W-3D-4L; Fortuna last 15 overall: 5W-2D-8L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonUtrecht or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Utrecht's tendency to lead at half-time at home (50%) and Fortuna's vulnerability early in away games give Utrecht a slight edge, but the low confidence reflects the variability in first-half outcomes.
- Utrecht home: led at half-time in 8 of 16 matches (50%)
- Fortuna away: trailed at half-time in 7 of 16 matches (44%)
- Utrecht last 5 home: led at half-time in 3 matches (Telstar, GO Ahead Eagles, AZ Alkmaar)
- Fortuna last 5 away: trailed at half-time in 2 matches, led in 1, drew in 2
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonUtrechtEstimated chance40%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and season-long home/away splits show a strong tendency for high-scoring games, with Fortuna's leaky away defense (2.0 goals conceded per away game) driving the over.
- Utrecht home matches average 2.63 total goals (29 scored, 13 conceded in 16 games)
- Fortuna away matches average 3.31 total goals (21 scored, 32 conceded in 16 games)
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals, including a 5-2 result
- Utrecht last 5 home matches: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals; Fortuna last 5 away: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Utrecht's consistent home scoring and Fortuna's ability to find the net on the road (75% of away games) make both teams scoring likely, despite Utrecht's solid home defense.
- Utrecht home: scored in 14 of 16 matches, conceded in 9 of 16
- Fortuna away: scored in 12 of 16 matches, conceded in 14 of 16
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 2 of 5, but Fortuna scored in 4 of 5
- Utrecht last 5 home: both teams scored in 3 of 5; Fortuna last 5 away: both teams scored in 4 of 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Utrecht's strong home attack, averaging 1.81 goals per game, faces a Fortuna defense that concedes heavily on the road, making over 1.5 home goals a solid expectation.
- Utrecht home: scored 2+ goals in 10 of 16 matches (62.5%)
- Utrecht last 5 home: scored 2+ in 4 matches (NAC Breda 2, Telstar 4, GO Ahead Eagles 2, AZ Alkmaar 2)
- Fortuna away: conceded 2+ goals in 10 of 16 matches (62.5%)
- H2H: Utrecht scored 2+ in 2 of last 5 meetings, but current home form is stronger
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonUtrecht over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of first-half goals in their respective home/away splits, with Fortuna's away matches seeing a first-half goal in 100% of recent games, supporting over 0.5 first-half goals.
- Utrecht home first-half record: scored in 11 of 16, conceded in 7 of 16
- Fortuna away first-half record: scored in 10 of 16, conceded in 12 of 16
- Utrecht last 5 home: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (only 0-0 vs Feyenoord)
- Fortuna last 5 away: first-half goals in all 5 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Utrecht's second-half scoring at home and Fortuna's second-half defensive frailties on the road suggests a high likelihood of multiple goals after the break.
- Utrecht home second-half goals: 1.2 per match on average (19 goals in 16 matches)
- Fortuna away second-half goals conceded: 1.4 per match on average (22 goals in 16 matches)
- Last 5 H2H: second-half over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 meetings
- Utrecht last 5 home: second-half over 1.5 in 3 matches; Fortuna last 5 away: second-half over 1.5 in 4 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' season-long corner averages and recent H2H data hover around the 9.5 line, making over 9.5 corners a marginal but reasonable call, though confidence is low due to variability.
- Utrecht home corners average: 5.2 per match; Fortuna away corners average: 3.8 per match
- Utrecht home matches average 9.8 total corners (5.2 + 4.6 opponent corners)
- Fortuna away matches average 10.1 total corners (3.8 + 6.3 opponent corners)
- Last 5 H2H: total corners were 11, 8, 9, 13, 7 (average 9.6)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Utrecht's home corner count is borderline, and Fortuna's tendency to concede corners away pushes the expectation slightly over, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- Utrecht home corners: average 5.2, with 8 of 16 matches over 5.5
- Fortuna away opponent corners: average 6.3, with 10 of 16 matches over 5.5
- Utrecht last 5 home corners: 7, 8, 7, 5, 2 (average 5.8)
- H2H last 5: Utrecht corners at home: 5, 7, 4 (average 5.3)
BetBugs · Home CornerslostUtrecht over 5.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages and recent H2H data suggest a total around 3.5, with a slight lean towards over due to occasional red cards, but the low confidence reflects the tight margin.
- Utrecht home yellow cards: 1.7 per match; Fortuna away yellow cards: 1.8 per match
- Combined average: 3.5 cards per match, with red cards possible (Utrecht 0.5 per game, Fortuna 1.0 per game)
- Last 5 H2H: total cards were 4, 3, 2, 5, 4 (average 3.6)
- Utrecht last 5 home: 2, 0, 2, 1, 1 (avg 1.2); Fortuna last 5 away: 2, 1, 2, 2, 1 (avg 1.6)
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L1-0Fortuna SittardvUtrechtSep 20, 2025ERE

D0-0Fortuna SittardvUtrechtMay 18, 2025ERE

L2-5UtrechtvFortuna SittardDec 22, 2024ERE

W4-0UtrechtvFortuna SittardFeb 11, 2024ERE

D0-0Fortuna SittardvUtrechtOct 28, 2023ERE

Utrecht: 3 clean sheetsFortuna Sittard: 3 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Eredivisie 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Utrecht Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)	33	14	8	11	53-42	50	WWLWL
11	Fortuna Sittard	33	11	6	16	49-61	39	WLLDL

11pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Utrecht

W2-1AjaxMay 10ERE

W2-0NAC BredaMay 2ERE

L0-5ExcelsiorApr 26ERE

W4-1TelstarApr 11ERE

L3-4PSV EindhovenApr 4ERE

W2-0GO Ahead EaglesMar 22ERE

W2-0TwenteMar 15ERE

D0-0HeraclesMar 6ERE

W2-0AZ AlkmaarMar 1ERE

D1-1PEC ZwolleFeb 22ERE

W2-1GroningenFeb 14ERE

W3-1NEC NijmegenFeb 11ERE

L0-1FeyenoordFeb 8ERE

D1-1HeerenveenFeb 1ERE

L2-4CelticJan 29UEF

Fortuna Sittard

W3-2PEC ZwolleMay 10ERE

L1-2FeyenoordMay 3ERE

L1-2HeerenveenApr 25ERE

D1-1NAC BredaApr 12ERE

L0-2AZ AlkmaarApr 4ERE

L1-2TwenteMar 21ERE

W2-1FC VolendamMar 14ERE

L1-4TelstarMar 8ERE

W3-2NEC NijmegenFeb 28ERE

W2-1ExcelsiorFeb 20ERE

L1-4AjaxFeb 14ERE

D2-2Sparta RotterdamFeb 7ERE

L1-2HeraclesFeb 1ERE

W2-1GroningenJan 25ERE

L1-2PSV EindhovenJan 17ERE

Squad & Injuries

Utrecht

35 available

Attackers9

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper5

Fortuna Sittard

34 available

Attackers3

Midfielders17

Defenders9

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 3.5

Utrecht

Utrecht or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Over 0.5

Over 1.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Utrecht

Fortuna Sittard

Squad & Injuries

Utrecht

Fortuna Sittard