Sturm Graz22 – 0Rapid Vienna0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Sturm Graz's superior league position, strong away form, and recent H2H dominance (2-0 win in April) give them the edge, though their home form is weaker, keeping confidence at MEDIUM.

• Sturm Graz won the most recent H2H 2-0 away on 2026-04-05, and Rapid were blanked in both H2H losses to Sturm in the last 13 months.
• Sturm Graz have the best away record in the league (10W-3D-3L, +16 GD) and are 2nd overall, while Rapid are 5th with negative goal difference.
• Sturm Graz are on a 5-match unbeaten run (WDDDD) with only 1 loss in last 15, while Rapid have lost 3 of their last 5 (LLWLD).
• Rapid have gone through three coaching phases this season, indicating instability, while Sturm also changed coach in December but have maintained form.

BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSturm GrazEstimated chance45%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Sturm Graz's strong overall form and Rapid's inconsistency make a Sturm Graz win or draw highly likely, supported by Sturm's low loss rate and Rapid's poor recent results.

• Sturm Graz have lost only 1 of their last 15 matches across all competitions.
• Rapid Vienna have lost 3 of their last 5 matches and have a negative goal difference overall.
• Sturm Graz are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (WDDDD) and have the 2nd best points total in the league.
• Rapid's away record is mediocre (5W-6D-4L) with only 17 goals scored in 15 away games.

BetBugs · Double ChancewonSturm Graz or DrawEstimated chance75%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Sturm Graz's tendency to start slowly and Rapid's poor first-half record make a halftime draw the most likely outcome, though Sturm's quality could tilt it.

• Sturm Graz have drawn at halftime in 54% of their matches (trailing only 13%, leading 33%).
• Rapid Vienna have trailed at halftime in 53% of matches, but Sturm's low first-half scoring (0.7 goals) suggests they may not capitalize.
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, 2 were draws at halftime, and the most recent H2H was 0-0 at halftime.
• Sturm Graz's last 5 matches: 3 draws at halftime, 1 win, 1 loss.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Sturm Graz's stronger second-half performances and Rapid's tendency to fade suggest Sturm could edge the second period, but the low overall scoring makes this a LOW confidence pick.

• Sturm Graz have a positive second-half goal difference (+0.3 per game), while Rapid have a negative second-half goal difference (-0.1 per game).
• In the most recent H2H, Sturm Graz scored both goals in the second half to win 2-0.
• Sturm Graz have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Rapid have lost the second half in 3 of their last 5.
• Sturm Graz's superior fitness and depth may give them an edge as the game progresses.

BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableSturm GrazEstimated chance40%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

While Sturm Graz are favorites, their slow starts make a halftime draw and full-time win a plausible but low-probability scenario, given the lack of historical precedent.

• Sturm Graz have drawn at halftime in 54% of matches and won 48% of matches overall.
• Rapid Vienna have trailed at halftime in 53% of matches, but Sturm's low first-half scoring reduces the chance of a halftime lead.
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, no match had a Draw/Sturm Graz HT/FT double.
• Sturm Graz's recent form shows 4 draws in last 5, with 3 being 1-1, indicating they often need a second-half push.

BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/Sturm GrazEstimated chance25%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Given Sturm Graz's slow starts and the competitive nature of this fixture, it is highly unlikely either team will win both halves.

• Sturm Graz have won both halves in only 2 of their last 15 matches.
• Rapid Vienna have not lost both halves in any of their last 5 matches, despite poor results.
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, neither team has won both halves.
• Sturm Graz's first-half goal average is only 0.7, making it unlikely they dominate from start to finish.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Sturm Graz's strong first-half record and Rapid's struggles early in games make a Sturm Graz lead or draw at halftime highly probable.

• Sturm Graz have trailed at halftime in only 13% of matches, while Rapid have trailed in 53%.
• Sturm Graz have led at halftime in 33% of matches, and drawn in 54%.
• Rapid Vienna have won the first half in only 20% of matches.
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, Rapid have not led at halftime in any match.

BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSturm Graz or DrawEstimated chance85%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Rapid's struggles to score against Sturm in recent H2H, combined with their current poor attacking form and Sturm's solid defense, suggest at least one team may fail to score.

• Rapid were blanked in both H2H losses to Sturm in the last 13 months (0-2 on 2025-04-05 and 0-2 on 2026-04-05).
• Sturm Graz have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 15 matches, conceding only 0.9 goals per game on average.
• Rapid Vienna have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches and average only 1.0 goals per game overall.
• Sturm Graz's defense has been solid, conceding only 35 goals in 31 league games, the 2nd best in the championship group.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams' recent low-scoring trends, especially Sturm's run of five straight under-2.5 matches, and the historical H2H pattern point to a tight, low-scoring affair.

• Sturm Graz's last 5 matches have all had under 2.5 goals (results: 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 0-0).
• Rapid Vienna's last 5 matches have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of 5, with only one match exceeding 2.5 goals.
• The most recent H2H ended 2-0, and 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings had under 2.5 goals.
• Sturm Graz average 1.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game; Rapid average 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

While both teams tend to score more in the second half, the overall low-scoring nature of this fixture makes this a LOW confidence call, but the data slightly favors more goals after the break.

• Sturm Graz score 0.8 second-half goals on average (1.5 total - 0.7 first half) and concede 0.5 second-half goals.
• Rapid Vienna score 0.7 second-half goals on average (1.0 total - 0.3 first half) and concede 0.7 second-half goals.
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 matches had over 1.5 second-half goals.
• Sturm Graz's recent matches have seen late goals, with 4 of their last 5 having second-half goals.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams' low first-half scoring rates and Sturm's strong first-half defense make it very unlikely both will score before the break.

• Sturm Graz average 0.7 first-half goals and concede 0.4 first-half goals.
• Rapid Vienna average 0.3 first-half goals and concede 0.7 first-half goals.
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in the first half only once.
• Sturm Graz have kept a first-half clean sheet in 60% of their matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams' corner averages and recent H2H trends suggest a total around 9-10 corners, but the variance is high, making this a LOW confidence over 8.5 call.

• Sturm Graz average 4.7 corners per game and concede 4.8 corners per game (total 9.5).
• Rapid Vienna average 4.4 corners per game and concede 4.5 corners per game (total 8.9).
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, total corners were: 9, 13, 9, 8, 7 (average 9.2).
• Sturm Graz's recent matches have seen corner counts of 9, 13, 7, 12, 9 in their last 5.