Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Santos0Coritiba3

HT 0–3Sun 17 May 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–633%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 13–9On targetOn target 3–5CornersCorners 3–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 May 2026, 21:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Santos' historical dominance over Coritiba—unbeaten in five H2Hs with four clean sheets—makes a home win or draw highly likely, but the best value lies in under 1.5 first-half goals (+5 points edge) and under 9.5 corners (+12 points edge).

Expect a cagey start with few early chances, and consider Santos to edge it after the break.

Context

Coritiba scored only once across the last five H2Hs (450 minutes).
- The last three meetings ended 0-0, 2-0, and 4-0 to Santos.
- Coritiba average just 1.0 goals per game this season.
Cuca took over on 19 March 2026 after a 2-1 home loss to Internacional.
- Santos have won two, drawn three, and lost two in seven league games since the change.
- The team has kept only two clean sheets in those seven matches.
Fabinho (attacker) and Keno (attacker) are out with a knee injury and inactive status.
- Lucas Ronier (midfielder) is suspended due to yellow card accumulation.
- Pedro Morisco (goalkeeper) is out with a shoulder injury.
Santos home record: W4 D2 L2, with 12 goals scored and 8 conceded.
- Three of the four home wins were by a single goal.
- Santos drew 0-0 with Coritiba at home in the Copa do Brasil on 22 April.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Santos' strong H2H dominance, especially Coritiba's scoring struggles (4/5 H2Hs without a goal), combined with Santos' solid home form gives them the edge.
- Santos unbeaten in last 5 H2Hs (W3 D2), Coritiba scored only once in those 5 games.
- Santos home record this season: W4 D2 L2, 12 goals scored, 8 conceded in 8 matches.
- Coritiba away record: W3 D2 L3, 11 goals scored, 13 conceded in 8 matches.
- Santos recent form (last 5): W-D-D-L-W, including a 2-0 away win vs Coritiba in Copa Do Brasil on 13 May 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSantosEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Santos' historical H2H edge and home resilience make a loss unlikely; Coritiba's away inconsistency further supports Santos avoiding defeat.
- Santos unbeaten in last 5 H2Hs (W3 D2).
- Santos home record: only 2 losses in 8 home games this season.
- Coritiba away record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses; inconsistent on the road.
- Santos have drawn 6 of 15 league games this season, showing resilience.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSantos or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Santos' tendency to draw at half-time (60%) and both teams' low first-half scoring suggest a level score at the break.
- Santos half-time results: 40% leading, 0% trailing, 60% drawing.
- Coritiba half-time results: 40% leading, 33% trailing, 27% drawing.
- Last 5 H2Hs: 3 draws at half-time, 2 Santos leads.
- Santos first-half goals: 0.7; Coritiba first-half goals: 0.5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Santos tend to improve after the break, while Coritiba's defense weakens, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- Santos scored 60% of their goals in the second half (0.7 first half vs 1.1 total).
- Coritiba conceded 58% of their goals in the second half (0.5 first half vs 1.2 total).
- Santos won the second half in 2 of last 5 H2Hs, with 2 draws.
- Santos home second-half record: +4 goal difference (8 scored, 4 conceded in 8 games).
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableSantosEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time is likely, and Santos' second-half strength could secure a win, but the specific combination has low historical frequency.
- Santos drew at half-time in 60% of matches, and won 27% of matches overall.
- Coritiba drew at half-time in 27% of matches, and lost 33% overall.
- Last 5 H2Hs: 2 instances of Draw/Santos (0-0 at HT, Santos won FT).
- Santos home matches: 2 wins after drawing at half-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/SantosEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Coritiba's historical scoring drought against Santos and their low offensive output suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- Coritiba failed to score in 4 of last 5 H2Hs against Santos.
- Santos kept 3 clean sheets in last 5 H2Hs vs Coritiba.
- Coritiba scored only 1.0 goals per game on average this season, with 0.5 first-half goals.
- Santos conceded 1.0 goals per game on average, but only 0.2 first-half goals conceded.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Coritiba's H2H scoring struggles and Santos' occasional home clean sheets give a moderate chance, but Coritiba's away scoring ability prevents higher confidence.
- Santos kept 3 clean sheets in last 5 H2Hs vs Coritiba.
- Santos home clean sheets: 3 in 8 home league games this season.
- Coritiba failed to score in 4 of last 5 H2Hs against Santos.
- Coritiba away goals: 11 in 8 games, but only 2 in last 3 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCoritiba not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low-scoring H2H trend and Santos' recent defensive solidity point to a tight match with few goals.
- Last 3 H2Hs: 0-0, 2-0, 4-0; all under 2.5 goals except the 4-0.
- Santos home games average 2.5 total goals (12 scored, 8 conceded in 8 games).
- Coritiba away games average 3.0 total goals (11 scored, 13 conceded in 8 games).
- Santos recent form: 4 of last 5 games had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and the H2H history shows minimal early goals, making a quiet first half very likely.
- Santos first-half goals: 0.7 per game; first-half goals conceded: 0.2 per game.
- Coritiba first-half goals: 0.5 per game; first-half goals conceded: 0.5 per game.
- Last 5 H2Hs: only 2 first-half goals total across all matches.
- Santos led at half-time in only 40% of matches, Coritiba in 40%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, and the H2H trend shows mostly low totals, supporting under 9.5 corners.
- Santos average corners: 4.7 per game; opponent corners: 5.1 per game.
- Coritiba average corners: 3.4 per game; opponent corners: 6.1 per game.
- Last 5 H2Hs: total corners averaged 7.8 (range 5-11).
- Santos home corners: 5.0 per game; Coritiba away corners: 3.4 per game.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' disciplinary records and the competitive nature of the fixture suggest a card count above 4.5.
- Santos average yellow cards: 2.8 per game; opponent yellow cards: 2.5 per game.
- Coritiba average yellow cards: 2.1 per game; opponent yellow cards: 2.1 per game.
- Last 5 H2Hs: total cards averaged 5.2 (range 3-8).
- Santos home cards: 3.1 per game; Coritiba away cards: 2.4 per game.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

4W · 1D · 0W

W0-2CoritibavSantosMay 13, 2026COP

D0-0SantosvCoritibaApr 22, 2026COP

W0-2CoritibavSantosNov 12, 2024SER

W4-0SantosvCoritibaJul 22, 2024SER

W2-1SantosvCoritibaOct 27, 2023SA

Santos unbeaten in 5 meetingsSantos: 4 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Santos	15	4	6	5	21-22	18	WDDLW
9	Coritiba Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	15	5	5	5	18-19	20	DLLWD

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Santos

W2-0CoritibaMay 13COP

W2-0RB BragantinoMay 10SA

D1-1Deportivo RecoletaMay 6CON

D1-1PalmeirasMay 2SA

D1-1San LorenzoApr 28CON

D2-2BahiaApr 25SA

D0-0CoritibaApr 22COP

L2-3FluminenseApr 19SA

D1-1Deportivo RecoletaApr 15CON

W1-0Atletico-MGApr 11SA

L0-1Deportivo CuencaApr 8CON

L1-3FlamengoApr 5SA

W2-0RemoApr 2SA

D0-0CruzeiroMar 22SA

L1-2InternacionalMar 19SA

Coritiba

L0-2SantosMay 13COP

D2-2InternacionalMay 9SA

L1-4VitoriaMay 2SA

L0-1GremioApr 26SA

D0-0SantosApr 22COP

W2-0Atletico-MGApr 19SA

D2-2BotafogoApr 12SA

D1-1FluminenseApr 4SA

D1-1Vasco DA GamaApr 1SA

L0-2Atletico ParanaenseMar 22SA

W1-0MirassolMar 18SA

W1-0RemoMar 15SA

W2-0CorinthiansMar 12SA

L0-1Sao PauloFeb 25SA

D2-2Operario-PRFeb 14PAR

Squad & Injuries

Santos

6 out

Attackers9

Midfielders4/15

×#16

×#5

×#16

×#5

Defenders2/10

×#3

Goalkeeper4

#16 Thaciano — Inactive

#3 Vinicius Lira — Knee Injury

#5 Joao Schmidt — Injury

#16 Thaciano — Inactive

#3 Vinicius Lira — Knee Injury

#5 Joao Schmidt — Injury

Coritiba

14 out

Attackers4/10

×#28

×#20

×#28

×#20

Midfielders2/17

×#11

Defenders4/12

×#3

×#2

×#3

×#2

Goalkeeper2/6

×#1

#28 Fabinho — Inactive

#20 Keno — Knee Injury

#11 Lucas Ronier — Yellow Cards

#3 Maicon — Inactive

#1 Pedro Morisco — Shoulder Injury

Rodrigo Rodrigues — Ankle Injury

#2 Tinga — Injury

#28 Fabinho — Inactive

#20 Keno — Knee Injury

#11 Lucas Ronier — Yellow Cards

#3 Maicon — Inactive

#1 Pedro Morisco — Shoulder Injury

Rodrigo Rodrigues — Ankle Injury

#2 Tinga — Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 1.5

No

Under 9.5

Under 10.5

Santos or Draw

Over 4.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Santos

Coritiba

Squad & Injuries

Santos

Coritiba