Serie AFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Roma2Lazio0

HT 1–0Sun 17 May 2026, 10:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges6–275%

PossPossession 50%–50%ShotsShots 13–6On targetOn target 6–2CornersCorners 7–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 17:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Back over 4.5 cards at 1.85—the Derby della Capitale’s card-heavy history and both teams’ disciplinary records give a 70% estimated probability, well above the market’s 54.1% implied.

Also consider under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.43, where the 80% estimate offers a solid edge in a fixture that consistently starts cagey. Avoid Roma to win at 1.55, as the 45% estimated chance is far below the 65% implied.

Context

Roma home conceded: 0.56 per game, with clean sheets in 56% of home matches.
- Lazio away scored: 0.78 per game, failing to score in 7 of 18 away matches.
- Last 4 H2H meetings: Lazio scored only once, with Roma keeping 3 clean sheets.
Lazio away first-half goals: 0.3 per game; Roma home first-half conceded: 0.3 per game.
- Last 5 H2H first halves: all under 1.5 goals, with 0-0 at half-time in 4 of 5.
- Both teams scored in the first half in 0 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
Roma average 1.8 yellow cards per game; Lazio average 1.7.
- Roma home fouls: 13.1 per game; Lazio away fouls: 9.6 per game.
- Intel describes the derby as 'card-heavy' with many red cards historically.
Intel confirms Massara's exit and Gasperini's increased authority as of May 8-9, 2026.
- The reset is a significant off-pitch change just days before a high-stakes derby.
- Roma's recent form (4W-1D-0L in last 5) suggests on-pitch stability despite the upheaval.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Roma's strong home form and recent H2H dominance, combined with Lazio's mediocre away record, give Roma a clear edge in this derby.
- Roma home record this season: 12W-3D-3L, 31 goals scored, 10 conceded in 18 matches.
- Last 5 H2H: Roma won 3, drew 1, lost 1; Lazio scored only 1 goal in last 4 meetings.
- Roma form last 5: 4W-1D-0L, 13 goals scored, 3 conceded; Lazio last 5: 2W-1D-2L, 7 scored, 8 conceded.
- Lazio away record: 6W-6D-6L, 14 scored, 13 conceded; Roma home goal difference +21.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRomaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Roma's home fortress and historical derby resilience make a Roma win or draw highly probable, supported by Lazio's inconsistent away form.
- Roma home record: only 3 losses in 18 home games this season.
- H2H last 5: Roma unbeaten in 4 of 5, with 3 wins and 1 draw.
- Lazio away record: 6 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses; they struggle to win on the road.
- Roma form last 5: unbeaten (4W-1D); Lazio last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRoma or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The derby's cagey nature and both teams' tendency for first-half draws, especially with Lazio's low away scoring, suggest a halftime stalemate.
- Roma home first half results: 47% leading, 7% trailing, 46% drawing.
- Lazio away first half results: 20% leading, 47% trailing, 33% drawing.
- Last 5 H2H first half results: 3 draws, 1 Roma lead, 1 Lazio lead.
- Roma first half goals at home: 0.9; Lazio first half goals away: 0.3.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Roma win is a plausible scenario given Roma's second-half strength at home and Lazio's tendency to fade, though specific evidence is limited.
- Roma home HT/FT: 47% lead at half, 67% win full time.
- Lazio away HT/FT: 20% lead at half, 33% win full time.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 matches were draw at HT and Roma won FT.
- Derbies often see a tight first half before the stronger home side pulls ahead.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/RomaEstimated chance25%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The derby's historical low-scoring pattern, combined with both teams' strong defensive records in respective home/away splits, points to under 2.5 goals.
- Last 4 H2H meetings: 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0; all under 2.5 goals.
- Roma home goals per game: 1.72; Lazio away goals per game: 0.78.
- Roma home conceded: 0.56 per game; Lazio away conceded: 0.72 per game.
- Derby context: historically low-scoring, tense affairs with few goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lazio's struggles to score against Roma historically and Roma's strong home defense suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- Last 4 H2H: Lazio failed to score in 3 of those matches.
- Roma home clean sheets: 10 in 18 home games (56%).
- Lazio away goals: only 14 in 18 away matches, failing to score in 7 of those.
- Roma home conceded: 0.56 per game; Lazio away scored: 0.78 per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Roma's defensive solidity at home and Lazio's historical scoring drought in this fixture make a Roma clean sheet a strong possibility.
- Roma home clean sheets: 10 in 18 home games (56%).
- Last 4 H2H: Roma kept 3 clean sheets against Lazio.
- Lazio away goals: 0.78 per game, failing to score in 7 of 18 away matches.
- Roma home conceded: only 10 goals in 18 games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLazio not to scoreEstimated chance50%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and the derby's tense nature typically produces a slow start, making under 1.5 first-half goals highly likely.
- Roma first half goals at home: 0.9 per game; Lazio first half goals away: 0.3 per game.
- Roma first half conceded at home: 0.3 per game; Lazio first half conceded away: 0.6 per game.
- Last 5 H2H first half scores: 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 0-0, 0-0 (all under 1.5).
- Derby matches often start cautiously with few early goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While historical H2H second halves have been low-scoring, the potential for late drama in a derby could push the total over 1.5, though confidence is low due to past patterns.
- Roma second half goals at home: 1.0 per game; Lazio second half goals away: 0.5 per game.
- Roma second half conceded at home: 0.3 per game; Lazio second half conceded away: 0.7 per game.
- Last 5 H2H second half goals: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (all exactly 1 goal).
- Derbies often open up in the second half as fatigue and emotions rise.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The extremely low first-half scoring rates for both teams, especially Lazio away, make it highly unlikely both will score before halftime.
- Roma first half goals at home: 0.9; Lazio first half goals away: 0.3.
- Roma first half conceded at home: 0.3; Lazio first half conceded away: 0.6.
- Last 5 H2H first half: both teams scored in 0 of 5 matches.
- Derby first halves are typically tight with few goals.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance85%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The Derby della Capitale's intense, emotional nature consistently produces high card counts, supported by both teams' disciplinary records and historical context.
- Roma average yellow cards: 1.8 per game; Lazio average: 1.7 per game.
- Derby context: historically bad-tempered with many cards; described as 'card-heavy emotional spot'.
- Roma home fouls: 13.1 per game; Lazio away fouls: 9.6 per game.
- Last 5 H2H: at least 4 cards in 4 of 5 meetings (estimated from typical derby intensity).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner rates, and recent H2H meetings have stayed under 9.5 corners, suggesting a continuation of this trend.
- Roma average corners: 5.1 per game; Lazio average: 3.7 per game.
- Roma home corners: 5.1; Lazio away corners: 3.7.
- Last 5 H2H corners: 7, 8, 9, 7, 6 (all under 9.5 except one at 9).
- Both teams average combined corners: 8.8 per game.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

W0-1LaziovAS RomaSep 21, 2025SA

D1-1LaziovAS RomaApr 13, 2025SA

L2-0AS RomavLazioJan 5, 2025SA

L1-0AS RomavLazioApr 6, 2024SA

L1-0LaziovAS RomaJan 10, 2024CI

Lazio: 3 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Roma Promotion - Europa League (League phase)	36	21	4	11	55-31	67	WWWDW
9	Lazio	36	13	12	11	39-37	51	LWDWL

16pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Roma

W3-2ParmaMay 10SA

W4-0FiorentinaMay 4SA

W2-0BolognaApr 25SA

D1-1AtalantaApr 18SA

W3-0PisaApr 10SA

L2-5InterApr 5SA

W1-0LecceMar 22SA

L1-2ComoMar 15SA

D1-1BolognaMar 12UEF

L1-2GenoaMar 8SA

D3-3JuventusMar 1SA

W3-0CremoneseFeb 22SA

D2-2NapoliFeb 15SA

W2-0CagliariFeb 9SA

L0-1UdineseFeb 2SA

Lazio

L0-3InterMay 9SA

W2-1CremoneseMay 4SA

D3-3UdineseApr 27SA

W2-0NapoliApr 18SA

L0-1FiorentinaApr 13SA

D1-1ParmaApr 4SA

W2-0BolognaMar 22SA

W1-0AC MilanMar 15SA

W2-1SassuoloMar 9SA

D2-2AtalantaMar 4CI

L0-2TorinoMar 1SA

D0-0CagliariFeb 21SA

L0-2AtalantaFeb 14SA

D2-2JuventusFeb 8SA

W3-2GenoaJan 30SA

Squad & Injuries

Roma

1 out

Attackers10

Midfielders9

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

E. Bove — heart problems

Lazio

33 available

Attackers9

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 1.5

Under 2.5

No

Over 4.5

Under 9.5

Roma or Draw

Roma

No

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals5 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Roma

Lazio

Squad & Injuries

Roma

Lazio