La LigaFull time

Predictions graded

Real Sociedad3Valencia4

HT 1–2Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 8–13On targetOn target 3–6CornersCorners 3–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 22:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Real Sociedad are strong at home and Valencia struggle away, making a home win or draw the safest play.

Back over 0.5 first-half goals and over 4.5 cards for value, but avoid betting on the outright winner given Real Sociedad's winless run and post-cup hangover risk.

Context

Last five league results: D-L-D-D-L (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses).
- The 1-0 home defeat to Getafe on 22 April was attributed to a post-Copa del Rey hangover by The Guardian.
- They conceded three goals in home draws against Alaves and Oviedo, showing defensive fragility.
Away record: 4W-4D-10L, 15 goals scored, 29 conceded.
- They failed to score in 8 of 18 away matches, including a 1-0 loss at Elche and a 1-0 loss at Oviedo.
- Only 7 first-half away goals all season, with 0.4 first-half goals per away game on average.
Real Sociedad 3-0 Valencia (28 Sep 2024) and Real Sociedad 1-0 Valencia (16 May 2024).
- Valencia managed only 2 shots on target in the 1-0 loss and 0 in the 3-0 loss.
- Overall, Real Sociedad have won 3 of the last 5 league H2Hs, with Valencia scoring in only one of those five.
The Guardian reported on 23 April 2026 that the Getafe loss was a clear post-cup hangover after celebrations.
- The Copa del Rey final went to extra time and penalties on 18 April, just four days before the Getafe match.
- Real Sociedad have played 15 matches since 1 March across La Liga and Copa, a congested schedule.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Real Sociedad's strong home form and H2H dominance at home give them the edge, but their poor recent form (0 wins in last 5) caps confidence.
- Real Sociedad home record: 8W-5D-5L, 34 goals scored, 27 conceded in 18 matches.
- Valencia away record: 4W-4D-10L, 15 goals scored, 29 conceded in 18 matches.
- H2H last 5: Real Sociedad won 3, Valencia won 1, 1 draw; Valencia failed to score in last 2 visits to Real Sociedad (3-0, 1-0).
- Real Sociedad last 5 form: D-L-D-D-L (0 wins); Valencia last 5 form: W-L-W-D-L (2 wins).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostReal SociedadEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Real Sociedad are very hard to beat at home, and Valencia's poor away form makes a home win or draw highly likely.
- Real Sociedad home record: 8W-5D-5L, only 5 losses in 18 home games.
- Valencia away record: 4W-4D-10L, 14 losses/draws in 18 away games.
- H2H at Real Sociedad: Real Sociedad won last 2 home meetings without conceding.
- Real Sociedad last 5 home matches: 2W-2D-1L.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostReal Sociedad or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Real Sociedad have a slight edge in first-half performance at home, but recent form is mixed, so confidence is low.
- Real Sociedad home: led at half-time in 8 of 18 home games (44%).
- Valencia away: trailed at half-time in 7 of 18 away games (39%).
- Real Sociedad last 5 home: led at half-time in 2 of 5.
- Valencia last 5 away: trailed at half-time in 1 of 5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostReal SociedadEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Real Sociedad tend to be stronger in second halves at home, while Valencia fade away, but the evidence is not overwhelming.
- Real Sociedad home second-half goal difference: +5 (scored 18, conceded 13 in 18 games).
- Valencia away second-half goal difference: -8 (scored 8, conceded 16 in 18 games).
- Real Sociedad last 5 home: won second half in 2 of 5.
- Valencia last 5 away: lost second half in 2 of 5.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableReal SociedadEstimated chance40%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Real Sociedad's home games tend to be high-scoring, and while Valencia's away games are lower, the hosts' attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities push this towards over 2.5.
- Real Sociedad home matches average 3.39 total goals (34 scored, 27 conceded in 18 games).
- Valencia away matches average 2.44 total goals (15 scored, 29 conceded in 18 games).
- Real Sociedad last 5 home matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- Valencia last 5 away matches: 2 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent ability to score and concede in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS a strong likelihood.
- Real Sociedad home: scored in 15 of 18 home games, conceded in 12 of 18.
- Valencia away: scored in 10 of 18 away games, conceded in 15 of 18.
- Real Sociedad last 5 home: both teams scored in 4 of 5.
- Valencia last 5 away: both teams scored in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Real Sociedad's home defensive record is leaky, and Valencia have shown they can score on the road recently, making a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Real Sociedad home: kept only 6 clean sheets in 18 home games (33%).
- Valencia away: failed to score in 8 of 18 away games, but scored in 3 of last 5 away.
- Real Sociedad last 5 home: conceded in 4 of 5.
- H2H: Valencia failed to score in last 2 visits, but overall scored in 2 of last 5 H2Hs.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonValencia to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a strong trend of first-half goals in their respective home/away matches, making over 0.5 first-half goals highly probable.
- Real Sociedad home first-half goals: scored in 12 of 18 home games, conceded in 10 of 18.
- Valencia away first-half goals: scored in 7 of 18, conceded in 10 of 18.
- Real Sociedad last 5 home: first-half goal in 4 of 5.
- Valencia last 5 away: first-half goal in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Real Sociedad's home matches see a high number of corners, and Valencia's away games also contribute, pushing the total over 9.5.
- Real Sociedad home corners average: 5.5 per game overall, but 6.3 in last 5 home matches.
- Valencia away corners average: 4.9 per game overall, but 5.0 in last 5 away matches.
- Combined average corners in Real Sociedad home games: 10.8 (Real Sociedad 5.5 + opponent 5.3).
- Combined average corners in Valencia away games: 9.6 (Valencia 4.9 + opponent 4.7).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Real Sociedad's home corner numbers are borderline, and Valencia's recent away concession rate is higher, making over 5.5 a coin flip.
- Real Sociedad home corners average: 5.5 per game overall.
- Real Sociedad last 5 home corners: 6, 9, 11, 3, 4 (average 6.6).
- Valencia away concedes corners: average 4.7 per game, but 5.8 in last 5 away.
BetBugs · Home CornerslostReal Sociedad over 5.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 2 cards each, and recent trends show a slight uptick, making over 4.5 cards likely in a competitive match.
- Real Sociedad home yellow cards: 2.1 per game overall, 2.4 in last 5 home.
- Valencia away yellow cards: 2.0 per game overall, 2.2 in last 5 away.
- Combined average cards in Real Sociedad home games: 4.1 (Real Sociedad 2.1 + opponent 2.0).
- Combined average cards in Valencia away games: 4.0 (Valencia 2.0 + opponent 2.0).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

D1-1ValenciavReal SociedadAug 16, 2025LL

L1-0ValenciavReal SociedadJan 19, 2025LL

W3-0Real SociedadvValenciaSep 28, 2024LL

W1-0Real SociedadvValenciaMay 16, 2024LL

W0-1ValenciavReal SociedadSep 27, 2023LL

Real Sociedad: 3 clean sheets1.6 goals/game avg

League Table

La Liga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Real Sociedad Promotion - Europa League (League phase)	35	11	11	13	54-55	44	DLDLD
12	Valencia	35	11	9	15	38-50	42	WLWDL

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Real Sociedad

D2-2Real BetisMay 9LL

L0-1SevillaMay 4LL

D3-3Rayo VallecanoApr 26LL

L0-1GetafeApr 22LL

D3-3AlavesApr 11LL

W2-0LevanteApr 4LL

L1-3VillarrealMar 20LL

W3-1OsasunaMar 15LL

L2-3Atletico MadridMar 7LL

W1-0Athletic ClubMar 4CDR

W1-0MallorcaFeb 28LL

D3-3OviedoFeb 21LL

L1-4Real MadridFeb 14LL

W1-0Athletic ClubFeb 11CDR

W3-1ElcheFeb 7LL

Valencia

W1-0Athletic ClubMay 10LL

L0-2Atletico MadridMay 2LL

W2-1GironaApr 25LL

D1-1MallorcaApr 21LL

L0-1ElcheApr 11LL

L2-3Celta VigoApr 5LL

W2-0SevillaMar 21LL

L0-1OviedoMar 14LL

W3-2AlavesMar 8LL

W1-0OsasunaMar 1LL

L1-2VillarrealFeb 22LL

W2-0LevanteFeb 15LL

L0-2Real MadridFeb 8LL

L1-2Athletic ClubFeb 4CDR

L1-2Real BetisFeb 1LL

Squad & Injuries

Real Sociedad

34 available

Attackers9

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Valencia

35 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders15

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Real Sociedad or Draw

Over 0.5

Yes

Over 4.5

Over 9.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Real Sociedad

Valencia

Squad & Injuries

Real Sociedad

Valencia