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Predictions graded

Real Oviedo0Alaves1

HT 0–1Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges6–0100%

PossPossession 70%–30%ShotsShots 7–7On targetOn target 0–1CornersCorners 5–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 21:53 · Europe/Bucharest

A relegated Oviedo in turmoil host a desperate Alaves fighting for survival.

The value lies in a low-scoring game: Under 2.5 goals (+13.7% edge) and Both Teams to Score – No (+10% edge) are the top plays, while the first-half draw (+11% edge) offers a strong angle. Alaves to win is priced tightly given their poor away form, so the draw cushion in Double Chance is safer.

Context

Relegation was mathematically sealed on May 11 after Girona's draw, per Cadena SER.
- AS reported three different coaches this season and a planned overhaul including a new sporting director.
- The intel confirms the squad is in post-drop turmoil with nothing to play for.
Alaves are 19th in La Liga, two points from safety with three games left.
- Cadena SER highlighted the motivation split, with Alaves among the teams still fighting to stay up.
- A win could lift them out of the relegation zone depending on other results.
Oviedo home record: 4W-7D-7L, with only 9 goals scored in 18 home matches.
- They failed to score in 10 of 18 home games this season.
- Recent home form: 1W, 2D, 2L in last five, with three blanks.
Last 8 H2H: Oviedo never scored more than 1 goal in any match.
- Most recent meeting: 1-1 draw at Alaves in January 2026.
- Alaves lead the series 7-3 across 14 meetings, but recent games have been tight.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Motivation/stakes heavily favor Alaves, who are fighting relegation, while Oviedo are already down and in organizational turmoil.
- Oviedo already relegated (confirmed May 11), with 3 coaches this season and ownership restructuring.
- Alaves are 19th, 2 points from safety with 3 games left, must-win urgency.
- Oviedo home record: 4W-7D-7L, only 9 goals scored in 18 home matches.
- Alaves away record: 3W-4D-11L, but motivation edge is significant.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlavesEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge is weak for Oviedo, and H2H psychology plus motivation gap make an Oviedo win unlikely.
- Oviedo have won only 4 of 18 home games this season.
- Alaves have avoided defeat in 7 of 18 away games (3W, 4D).
- Last 5 H2H: Oviedo 1 win, Alaves 2 wins, 2 draws (all low-scoring).
- Oviedo's last 5 home matches: 1W, 2D, 2L.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or AlavesEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge is minimal for first halves, and both teams have low leading-at-half rates, making a draw likely.
- Oviedo led at halftime in only 27% of matches this season.
- Alaves led at halftime in 27% of matches this season.
- Oviedo's last 5 home matches: 2 draws, 2 losses, 1 win at halftime.
- Alaves' last 5 away matches: 2 draws, 2 losses, 1 win at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Motivation/stakes and Oviedo's tendency to fade at home (conceding late) give Alaves a slight edge in the second half.
- Alaves have a better second-half goal difference (-0.1 per away game) than Oviedo (-0.5 per home game).
- Oviedo's last 5 home matches: lost second half in 3, drew 2.
- Alaves' last 5 away matches: won second half in 2, lost 2, drew 1.
- Motivation edge may grow as the match progresses.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableAlavesEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and motivation/stakes suggest a scenario where a cagey first half opens up, with Alaves capitalizing late.
- Oviedo have drawn at halftime and lost full-time in 3 of last 15 matches.
- Alaves have drawn at halftime and won full-time in 2 of last 15 matches.
- H2H pattern: tight first halves, Alaves often edge second halves.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/AlavesEstimated chance30%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology shows a consistent low-scoring pattern, and Oviedo's home attack is the weakest in the league, supporting a tight game.
- Oviedo home matches average 1.44 total goals (9 scored, 17 conceded in 18 games).
- Last 8 H2H meetings: Oviedo never scored more than 1 goal.
- Oviedo's last 5 home matches: 3 had under 2.5 goals.
- Alaves away matches average 2.72 total goals, but Oviedo's attack is blunt (0.5 goals per home game).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tactical matchup edge: Oviedo's inability to create chances at home (avg 0.5 goals) meets an Alaves defense that, while leaky, faces a demoralized opponent.
- Oviedo failed to score in 10 of 18 home matches this season.
- Alaves kept only 2 clean sheets in 18 away games, but Oviedo's attack is historically poor at home.
- Last 3 H2H: both teams scored in only 1 of 3 (1-1 draw).
- Oviedo average 0.5 goals per home game; Alaves concede 1.72 per away game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Motivation/stakes could lead to a focused Alaves defensive performance against a relegated Oviedo side with little attacking threat.
- Alaves have 2 clean sheets in 18 away games this season.
- Oviedo have been shut out in 10 of 18 home matches.
- Oviedo's last 5 home matches: failed to score in 2.
- Alaves' last 5 away matches: 1 clean sheet.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonReal Oviedo not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and both teams' slow starts (Oviedo home, Alaves away) point to a cagey first half.
- Oviedo average 0.5 first-half goals at home (last 15 matches).
- Alaves average 0.7 first-half goals overall, but only 0.5 in away games.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 had 0 or 1 first-half goal.
- Oviedo's last 5 home matches: 4 had under 1.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Motivation/stakes could push Alaves to press harder in the second half, while Oviedo's defense may tire or lose focus.
- Oviedo concede 1.0 second-half goals per home game on average.
- Alaves score 1.2 second-half goals per away game on average.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Alaves' urgency may increase after halftime if the game is tight.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge and tactical matchup (both teams mid-table in corners) point to a moderate corner count, likely under 10.
- Oviedo average 3.5 corners per game overall, 3.2 at home.
- Alaves average 4.6 corners per game overall, 4.1 away.
- Combined average corners in Oviedo home games: 7.3.
- Last 5 H2H: average total corners 7.8.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Motivation/stakes could lead to a scrappy, foul-heavy match, pushing the card count above the season averages.
- Oviedo average 2.1 yellow cards per game, Alaves average 3.0.
- Combined average cards in Oviedo home games: 5.1.
- Alaves away games average 5.3 total cards.
- Relegation battle intensity may increase fouls and cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 2W

D1-1AlavesvOviedoJan 4, 2026LL

L1-0OviedovAlavesJan 13, 2023SEG

L2-1AlavesvOviedoOct 29, 2022SEG

D0-0AlavesvOviedoJul 30, 2022FRI

Alaves unbeaten in 4 meetingsAlaves: 2 clean sheets1.5 goals/game avg

League Table

La Liga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
20	Real Oviedo Relegation - LaLiga2	35	6	11	18	26-54	29	DLLDW
19	Alaves Relegation - LaLiga2	35	9	10	16	41-54	37	DLWLD

8pt gap between teamsReal Oviedo in relegation zoneAlaves in relegation zone

Recent Form

Real Oviedo

D0-0GetafeMay 10LL

L0-3Real BetisMay 3LL

L1-2ElcheApr 26LL

D1-1VillarrealApr 23LL

W3-0Celta VigoApr 12LL

W1-0SevillaApr 5LL

L2-4LevanteMar 21LL

W1-0ValenciaMar 14LL

D1-1EspanyolMar 9LL

L0-3Rayo VallecanoMar 4LL

L0-1Atletico MadridFeb 28LL

D3-3Real SociedadFeb 21LL

L1-2Athletic ClubFeb 15LL

W1-0GironaJan 31LL

L0-3BarcelonaJan 25LL

Alaves

D1-1ElcheMay 9LL

L2-4Athletic ClubMay 2LL

W2-1MallorcaApr 25LL

L1-2Real MadridApr 21LL

D3-3Real SociedadApr 11LL

D2-2OsasunaApr 5LL

W4-3Celta VigoMar 22LL

D1-1VillarrealMar 13LL

L2-3ValenciaMar 8LL

L0-2LevanteFeb 27LL

D2-2GironaFeb 23LL

D1-1SevillaFeb 14LL

L0-2GetafeFeb 8LL

L2-3Real SociedadFeb 4CDR

W2-1EspanyolJan 30LL

Squad & Injuries

Real Oviedo

31 available

Attackers5

Midfielders13

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Alaves

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders13

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

No

Under 1.5

Under 9.5

Draw or Alaves

Alaves

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Real Oviedo

Alaves

Squad & Injuries

Real Oviedo

Alaves