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Predictions graded

Manchester Utd3Nottingham Forest2

HT 1–0Sun 17 May 2026, 11:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–189%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 29–11On targetOn target 8–4CornersCorners 7–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 17:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in three league H2Hs and have scored in five straight against United, making both teams to score (Yes at 1.65, +9% edge) the standout bet.

Over 3.5 cards (2.05, +11.2% edge) also offers value, while match winner markets are too tight given Forest's resilience.

Context

Forest won 3-2 at Old Trafford in December 2024.
- Forest won 1-0 at home in April 2025.
- The most recent meeting ended 2-2 at the City Ground in November 2025.
Forest scored in all five league H2Hs since December 2023.
- They scored three goals at Old Trafford in the most recent away fixture.
- United have conceded in 12 of 18 home league matches this season.
Pereira was appointed on February 15, 2026, following Dyche's dismissal on February 12.
- Forest have had four different head coaches this season, indicating ongoing instability.
- The team's recent form under Pereira is mixed: 2W-2D-2L in the last six league matches.
United have lost only three home league games all season.
- They have won four of their last five home matches, scoring 12 goals.
- Forest have won three of their last five away league matches, including a 3-1 win at Chelsea.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Manchester Utd or Draw

1.18fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

United's home strength (only 3 losses in 18) and Forest's away fragility (8 losses) make a United win or draw highly probable.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Manchester Utd

1.61fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62%

0.0ppshort

United's strong home form (12 wins in 18) gives them the edge, but Forest's recent H2H success tempers confidence.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' matches average near 3.0 goals, and 4 of last 5 H2H meetings went over 2.5.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have moderate first-half scoring records, and 4 of last 5 H2H had first-half goals.

Corners Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 9.5

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Combined home/away corner averages project ~9.9 total, and United's last 5 home matches averaged 10.2 corners.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Manchester Utd's strong home form (12 wins in 18) and Forest's inconsistent away record give United the edge, though Forest's recent H2H success tempers confidence.
- Manchester Utd home record: 12W-3D-3L, 36 goals scored, 22 conceded in 18 home matches this season.
- Nottingham Forest away record: 7W-3D-8L, 26 goals scored, 25 conceded in 18 away matches.
- Manchester Utd last 5 home matches: 4W-0D-1L, scoring 12 goals (2.4 per game).
- Nottingham Forest last 5 away matches (all comps): 2W-1D-2L, conceding 8 goals (1.6 per game).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonManchester UtdEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
United's home strength (only 3 losses all season) combined with Forest's difficulty winning away (8 losses) makes a United win or draw highly probable.
- Manchester Utd home record: only 3 losses in 18 home matches this season.
- Nottingham Forest away record: 8 losses in 18 away matches.
- H2H last 3 league meetings: Forest unbeaten (2W-1D), but all were close contests.
- Manchester Utd form: 3W-1D-1L in last 5, Forest: 2W-2D-1L in last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonManchester Utd or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
United's home first-half lead rate (44%) and Forest's away first-half deficit rate (44%) give United a slight edge, but H2H history shows this is far from certain.
- Manchester Utd home first-half record: led at half-time in 8 of 18 home matches (44%).
- Nottingham Forest away first-half record: trailed at half-time in 8 of 18 away matches (44%).
- Manchester Utd last 5 home matches: led at half-time in 3 of 5.
- H2H last 5: United led at half-time in only 1 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonManchester UtdEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
United's home second-half win rate (50%) and Forest's away second-half loss rate (44%) suggest United are more likely to edge the second period.
- Manchester Utd home second-half record: won second half in 9 of 18 home matches (50%).
- Nottingham Forest away second-half record: lost second half in 8 of 18 away matches (44%).
- Manchester Utd last 5 home matches: won second half in 3 of 5.
- H2H last 5: United won second half in 2 of 5, with 2 draws.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableManchester UtdEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A pattern of United drawing at half-time and winning full-time occurs in about 22% of their home matches, and Forest's away record shows similar vulnerability.
- Manchester Utd home: drawn at half-time in 7 of 18 matches, won full-time in 12 of 18.
- Nottingham Forest away: drawn at half-time in 7 of 18 matches, lost full-time in 8 of 18.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 matches were draw at half-time, United won full-time in 1 of those.
- Manchester Utd last 5 home: 2 matches were draw at half-time, United won full-time in both.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/Manchester UtdEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Forest's consistent scoring record against United (5 straight league meetings) and United's tendency to concede at home (67% of home games) strongly support both teams scoring.
- H2H: Forest have scored in 5 straight league meetings with United.
- Manchester Utd home: conceded in 12 of 18 home matches (67%).
- Nottingham Forest away: scored in 13 of 18 away matches (72%).
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings across all competitions.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches this season average near or above 2.8 goals, and recent H2H history shows a clear trend toward high-scoring affairs.
- Manchester Utd home matches: average 3.2 total goals per game (36 scored, 22 conceded in 18 games).
- Nottingham Forest away matches: average 2.8 total goals per game (26 scored, 25 conceded in 18 games).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- Manchester Utd last 5 home matches: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a moderate tendency to score or concede in the first half, and recent H2H meetings frequently feature early goals.
- Manchester Utd home first-half record: scored in 11 of 18 home matches (61%), conceded in 7 of 18 (39%).
- Nottingham Forest away first-half record: scored in 9 of 18 away matches (50%), conceded in 11 of 18 (61%).
- Last 5 H2H: first-half goals in 4 of 5 meetings.
- Manchester Utd last 5 home matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second-half goal averages for both teams suggest a combined rate near 2.0, and H2H history shows consistent second-half scoring.
- Manchester Utd home second-half goals: 1.1 per game on average (20 in 18 matches).
- Nottingham Forest away second-half goals: 0.9 per game on average (16 in 18 matches).
- Combined second-half average: 2.0 goals per game in respective home/away splits.
- Last 5 H2H: second-half goals in all 5 meetings, with 3 having over 1.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away corner averages combine to around 9.9, and recent H2H and United's home trend support a total above 9.5.
- Manchester Utd home corners: average 5.1 per game, opponent corners: 4.8 per game, total 9.9.
- Nottingham Forest away corners: average 4.2 per game, opponent corners: 5.6 per game, total 9.8.
- Last 5 H2H: total corners averaged 9.4, with 3 of 5 over 9.5.
- Manchester Utd last 5 home matches: total corners averaged 10.2.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages from home/away splits (3.9 and 3.3) and recent H2H trends point to a match with over 3.5 cards.
- Manchester Utd home cards: average 2.1 yellow cards per game, opponent cards: 1.8, total 3.9.
- Nottingham Forest away cards: average 1.6 yellow cards per game, opponent cards: 1.7, total 3.3.
- Last 5 H2H: total cards averaged 3.8, with 3 of 5 over 3.5.
- Manchester Utd last 5 home matches: total cards averaged 4.2.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

D2-2Nottingham ForestvManchester UnitedNov 1, 2025PL

L1-0Nottingham ForestvManchester UnitedApr 1, 2025PL

W2-3Manchester UnitedvNottingham ForestDec 7, 2024PL

W0-1Nottingham ForestvManchester UnitedFeb 28, 2024FAC

L2-1Nottingham ForestvManchester UnitedDec 30, 2023PL

2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier League 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Manchester Utd Promotion - Champions League (League phase)	36	18	11	7	63-48	65	DWWWL
16	Nottingham Forest	36	11	10	15	45-47	43	DWWWD

22pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Manchester Utd

D0-0SunderlandMay 9PL

W3-2LiverpoolMay 3PL

W2-1BrentfordApr 27PL

W1-0ChelseaApr 18PL

L1-2LeedsApr 13PL

D2-2BournemouthMar 20PL

W3-1Aston VillaMar 15PL

L1-2NewcastleMar 4PL

W2-1Crystal PalaceMar 1PL

W1-0EvertonFeb 23PL

D1-1West HamFeb 10PL

W2-0TottenhamFeb 7PL

W3-2FulhamFeb 1PL

W3-2ArsenalJan 25PL

W2-0Manchester CityJan 17PL

Nottingham Forest

D1-1NewcastleMay 10PL

L0-4Aston VillaMay 7UEF

W3-1ChelseaMay 4PL

W1-0Aston VillaApr 30UEF

W5-0SunderlandApr 24PL

W4-1BurnleyApr 19PL

W1-0FC PortoApr 16UEF

D1-1Aston VillaApr 12PL

D1-1FC PortoApr 9UEF

W3-0TottenhamMar 22PL

D0-0FulhamMar 15PL

L0-1FC MidtjyllandMar 12UEF

D2-2Manchester CityMar 4PL

L1-2BrightonMar 1PL

L1-2FenerbahçeFeb 26UEF

Squad & Injuries

Manchester Utd

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Nottingham Forest

35 available

Attackers9

Midfielders11

Defenders9

Goalkeeper6