2. BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

Karlsruhe1Bochum2

HT 1–1Sun 17 May 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–275%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 18–13On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 11–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 18:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Karlsruhe’s strong home form and emotional coach-sendoff make them unlikely to lose against a poor-traveling Bochum side.

The best value is Karlsruhe or Draw at 1.57, with an 8-point edge over the implied probability. Goals markets are overpriced, so focus on the Double Chance for a high-confidence play.

Context

A 12 May 2026 preview framed the match as a send-off for Karlsruhe's departing coach.
- Both teams have already secured safety, so the coach's farewell is the main motivational factor.
- Karlsruhe's home record is strong (9W-3D-4L), and the emotional backdrop could reinforce that.
Bochum's away record: 2W-6D-8L, with 17 goals scored and 25 conceded.
- Last 5 away matches: D-L-L-D-D, scoring only 3 goals and conceding 9.
- Bochum have failed to win any of their last 5 away games.
Karlsruhe have scored 22 of 33 home goals in the second half.
- They won the second half in 8 of 16 home games, losing only 4.
- Bochum lost the second half in 9 of 16 away matches.
Last 5 competitive H2H results: 2-2, 2-1 Karlsruhe, 1-0 Bochum, 0-0, 3-3.
- Three draws in that span, with the other two decided by a single goal.
- The most recent meeting in December 2025 ended 2-2.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.33fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Karlsruhe home games average 3.75 total goals and Bochum away concede 1.56/game, but odds heavily price in goals leaving no value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.33fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Both sides have high BTTS rates in home/away splits, but odds are too short to offer value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Karlsruhe home first-half goals in 10 of 16 and Bochum concede early often, but odds are prohibitively short.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Karlsruhe score 67% of home goals after the break, but odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Karlsruhe's strong home form and Bochum's poor away record give the hosts a clear edge, reinforced by the emotional coach-sendoff motivation on the final matchday.
- Karlsruhe home record: 9W-3D-4L (33 goals scored, 27 conceded) in 16 home matches this season.
- Bochum away record: 2W-6D-8L (17 goals scored, 25 conceded) in 16 away matches this season.
- Karlsruhe last 5 home matches: W-W-L-W-D, scoring 12 goals and conceding 7.
- Bochum last 5 away matches: D-L-L-D-D, scoring 3 goals and conceding 9.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKarlsruheEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlsruhe's strong home form combined with Bochum's away struggles and a draw-heavy H2H history make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Karlsruhe home record: 9W-3D-4L, losing only 4 of 16 home games.
- Bochum away record: 2W-6D-8L, winning only 2 of 16 away games.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3 draws, 1 Karlsruhe win, 1 Bochum win.
- Both teams have secured safety, reducing desperation but Karlsruhe has a coach-sendoff narrative.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostKarlsruhe or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of first-half draws in their respective home/away splits, and H2H history shows tight first halves.
- Karlsruhe home first-half record: led at HT in 5 of 16, trailed in 5, drawn 6.
- Bochum away first-half record: led at HT in 2 of 16, trailed in 8, drawn 6.
- Last 5 H2H: HT results – 0-0, 1-0 Karlsruhe, 0-0, 0-0, 2-2.
- Karlsruhe last 5 home matches: HT draw in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Karlsruhe's strong second-half performance at home contrasts with Bochum's away second-half struggles, giving the hosts an edge after the break.
- Karlsruhe home second-half record: won second half in 8 of 16, lost in 4, drawn 4.
- Bochum away second-half record: won second half in 3 of 16, lost in 9, drawn 4.
- Karlsruhe scored 67% of home goals in second half; Bochum conceded 60% of away goals in second half.
- Last 5 H2H: second-half winners – Karlsruhe 2, Bochum 1, draw 2.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableKarlsruheEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A pattern of tight first halves followed by Karlsruhe pulling away in the second half is plausible given their home second-half strength and Bochum's away fragility.
- Karlsruhe home: HT draw then FT win in 4 of 16 home matches (25%).
- Bochum away: HT draw then FT loss in 5 of 16 away matches (31%).
- Last 5 H2H: one instance of HT draw/FT Karlsruhe win (2-1 in 2022).
- Karlsruhe last 5 home: HT draw in 3, FT win in 2 of those 3.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/KarlsruheEstimated chance22%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Karlsruhe's home games are high-scoring, and Bochum's away defense is leaky, while H2H history shows a tendency for goals in this fixture.
- Karlsruhe home matches average 3.75 total goals (33 scored, 27 conceded in 16 games).
- Bochum away matches average 2.63 total goals (17 scored, 25 conceded in 16 games).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 2-2, 2-1, 1-0, 0-0, 3-3 – 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- Karlsruhe last 5 home matches: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high rate of both scoring and conceding in their respective home/away splits, and H2H history supports goals at both ends.
- Karlsruhe home: both teams scored in 11 of 16 home matches (69%).
- Bochum away: both teams scored in 10 of 16 away matches (63%).
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 3 of 5 meetings.
- Karlsruhe conceded in 13 of 16 home games; Bochum scored in 11 of 16 away games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlsruhe's home matches frequently see early goals, and Bochum's away defense often concedes before halftime, making a first-half goal likely.
- Karlsruhe home first-half goals: scored in 10 of 16 home matches, conceded in 11 of 16.
- Bochum away first-half goals: scored in 7 of 16, conceded in 12 of 16.
- Last 5 H2H: first-half goals in 3 of 5 (2-2 had 0, 2-1 had 1, 1-0 had 0, 0-0 had 0, 3-3 had 2).
- Karlsruhe last 5 home matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Karlsruhe tends to score more in the second half at home, and Bochum's away defense weakens after the break, supporting multiple second-half goals.
- Karlsruhe home second-half goals: 22 of 33 home goals scored after halftime (67%).
- Bochum away second-half goals: 15 of 25 away goals conceded after halftime (60%).
- Last 5 H2H: second-half goals in 4 of 5 (2, 2, 1, 0, 4).
- Karlsruhe last 5 home matches: second-half over 1.5 in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches show a tendency for moderate to high corner counts, and Karlsruhe's home games often exceed 8.5 total corners.
- Karlsruhe home corners average: 3.3 for, opponent corners 4.1 against in last 15 overall; home-specific data limited but recent home matches show 4, 3, 4, 7, 3 corners for.
- Bochum away corners average: 3.7 for, opponent corners 4.7 against in last 15 overall; away matches show 2, 5, 5, 3, 6 corners for.
- Last 5 H2H corner data unavailable, but both teams average around 7-8 total corners in recent matches.
- Karlsruhe last 5 home matches: total corners 7, 8, 17, 12, 6 – average 10.0.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

3W · 2D · 0W

D2-2VfL BochumvKarlsruher SCDec 20, 20252.

W1-2Vfl BochumvKarlsruher SCDec 10, 2022FRI

W1-2Vfl BochumvKarlsruher SCJan 31, 20212.

W0-1Karlsruher SCvVfl BochumSep 27, 20202.

D0-0Karlsruher SCvVfl BochumMay 24, 20202.

Karlsruhe unbeaten in 5 meetingsKarlsruhe: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

2. Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Karlsruhe	33	12	8	13	52-62	44	DWLLW
10	Bochum	33	10	11	12	47-46	41	DDWLW

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Karlsruhe

D2-2SC Paderborn 07May 82.

W2-1SV Darmstadt 98May 32.

L1-3Hannover 96Apr 252.

L0-3SV ElversbergApr 172.

W4-1Arminia BielefeldApr 102.

L0-1FC Schalke 04Apr 52.

L0-1SV WehenMar 26FRI

W3-1SpVgg Greuther FürthMar 202.

L0-31. FC KaiserslauternMar 152.

D3-3Dynamo DresdenMar 82.

W3-11. FC MagdeburgMar 12.

W3-1Holstein KielFeb 212.

L1-51. FC NürnbergFeb 132.

D1-1Fortuna DüsseldorfFeb 82.

W4-2TSV SteinbachFeb 1FRI

Bochum

D1-1Hannover 96May 92.

D1-1Arminia BielefeldMay 22.

W2-1SpVgg Greuther FürthApr 262.

L0-2Dynamo DresdenApr 182.

W4-1Eintracht BraunschweigApr 122.

L1-41. FC MagdeburgApr 42.

L0-4Rot-Weiß EssenMar 27FRI

L2-3Holstein KielMar 222.

D1-1Hertha BSCMar 142.

W3-21. FC KaiserslauternMar 72.

L1-2Fortuna DüsseldorfFeb 272.

D1-11. FC NürnbergFeb 202.

D0-0SC Paderborn 07Feb 152.

D1-1Preußen MünsterFeb 62.

W2-0FC Schalke 04Jan 312.

Squad & Injuries

Karlsruhe

1 out

Attackers5

Midfielders14

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

E. Sihlaroğlu — Jumpers knee

Bochum

30 available

Attackers8

Midfielders9

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3