2. BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

Hannover3Nuremberg3

HT 2–1Sun 17 May 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–191%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 21–16On targetOn target 10–6CornersCorners 8–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 18:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Hannover’s three straight home H2H wins to nil and Nuremberg’s poor away defensive record make ‘Nuremberg clean sheet – No’ the top value bet.

Hannover over 5.5 corners also offers an edge, while the match winner odds are too short given the hosts’ modest home win rate and recent boardroom disruption.

Context

Hannover won the last three home H2Hs by a combined 8-0 scoreline.
- Nuremberg failed to score in any of those three visits.
- The most recent home H2H was a 2-0 win in September 2024.
Schmadtke’s exit was announced on 22 March and took effect on 31 March.
- Interim replacements Henning Bindzus and Ralf Becker are now in charge.
- The upheaval could affect squad focus, though recent results have been steady (unbeaten in last 5).
Nuremberg away clean sheet rate: 12.5% (2/16).
- Hannover scored in 87.5% of home games (14/16).
- Nuremberg conceded in all five recent H2Hs, including three away.
Last 5 results: W-D-W-D-D.
- Home record this season: 7W-5D-4L (44% win rate).
- Only two wins by 2+ goals in last 10 home games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Hannover or Draw

1.14fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

Hannover unbeaten in 75% of home games this season, while Nuremberg have won only 3 of 16 away; the double chance covers the draw risk at a price that still offers value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' first-half scoring trends and H2H history strongly indicate at least one goal before halftime.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Nuremberg's consistent away scoring (87% of recent away games) and Hannover's occasional defensive lapses at home (conceded in 10 of 16 home games) make both teams scoring likely.

Corners Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 9.5

1.57fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Hannover's high corner generation (6.9 per game) and combined averages suggest a total above 9.5 corners, though Nuremberg's lower corner numbers temper the confidence.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Strong venue-specific H2H dominance (3 straight home wins to nil) and Hannover's promotion motivation outweigh Nuremberg's mid-table security, but Hannover's modest home win rate (44%) caps confidence.
- Hannover's last 3 home H2H vs Nuremberg: 2-0, 3-0, 3-0 (2024-2025)
- Hannover home record this season: 7W-5D-4L, goals 24:20
- Nuremberg away record: 3W-5D-8L, goals 17:25
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHannoverEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hannover's strong home resilience (75% unbeaten) and Nuremberg's poor away form (19% win rate) make a home defeat unlikely, supported by Hannover's promotion push.
- Hannover home losses: only 4 in 16 this season
- Nuremberg away wins: only 3 in 16
- Hannover unbeaten in last 5 overall (3W-2D)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHannover or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hannover's slight first-half edge at home is countered by Nuremberg's resilience (rarely trailing at HT), making a home HT lead a low-confidence lean.
- Hannover led at HT in 40% of last 15 matches
- Nuremberg trailed at HT in only 7% of last 15
- Hannover home HT leads: 5 in 16 this season (31%)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonHannoverEstimated chance35%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent scoring trends and H2H history suggest goals, but Hannover's home defensive solidity (1.25 goals conceded per home game) and Nuremberg's away struggles (1.56 conceded) keep it a moderate over lean.
- Hannover's last 15 matches: avg 1.7 goals for, 1.0 against, 60% over 2.5
- Nuremberg's last 15: avg 1.5 for, 1.1 against, 53% over 2.5
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nuremberg's consistent away scoring (87% of recent away games) and Hannover's occasional defensive lapses at home (conceded in 10 of 16 home games) make both teams scoring likely.
- Hannover: BTTS in 53% of last 15 matches
- Nuremberg: BTTS in 60% of last 15 matches
- Nuremberg scored in 13 of last 15 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nuremberg's poor away defensive record (12.5% clean sheet rate) and Hannover's consistent home scoring (87.5% of games) strongly point to Nuremberg conceding.
- Nuremberg away clean sheets: only 2 in 16 this season
- Hannover scored in 14 of 16 home games
- H2H: Nuremberg conceded in all 5 recent meetings
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHannover to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring trends and H2H history strongly indicate at least one goal before halftime.
- Hannover first half goals: 0.7 avg, conceded 0.5; 60% of matches had 1+ first-half goal
- Nuremberg first half goals: 0.9 avg, conceded 0.4; 73% of matches had 1+ first-half goal
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 had a first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to produce more goals after halftime, with Hannover's second-half scoring rate (1.0 per game) driving the over 1.5 second-half goals lean.
- Hannover second-half goals: 1.0 avg, conceded 0.5
- Nuremberg second-half goals: 0.6 avg, conceded 0.7
- Combined second-half avg: 1.4 goals per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hannover's high corner generation (6.9 per game) and the combined averages suggest a total above 9.5 corners, though Nuremberg's lower corner numbers temper the confidence.
- Hannover avg corners: 6.9, opponent corners: 4.5; total 11.4 per game
- Nuremberg avg corners: 4.7, opponent corners: 4.7; total 9.4 per game
- H2H last 5: avg total corners 9.8
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hannover's consistent corner output, especially at home, and Nuremberg's average concession rate support Hannover exceeding 5.5 corners.
- Hannover home corners: 6.9 avg overall, 7.1 in last 5 home games
- Nuremberg away opponent corners: 4.7 avg
- Hannover had 6+ corners in 10 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Home CornerswonHannover over 5.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages hover around 3.5-4.0, with Hannover's slightly higher discipline numbers at home pushing the total just over the line, but low confidence due to marginal data.
- Hannover avg yellow cards: 2.0, opponent: 2.1; total 4.1
- Nuremberg avg yellow cards: 1.8, opponent: 1.9; total 3.7
- H2H last 5: avg total cards 3.8
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L2-11. FC NürnbergvHannover 96Dec 21, 20252.

W1-21. FC NürnbergvHannover 96Mar 1, 20252.

L2-0Hannover 96v1. FC NürnbergSep 29, 20242.

L3-0Hannover 96vFC NurnbergJan 26, 20242.

D2-2FC NurnbergvHannover 96Aug 6, 20232.

Nuremberg: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

2. Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Hannover Promotion - Bundesliga (Promotion)	33	16	11	6	57-41	59	DDWDW
8	Nuremberg	33	12	9	12	44-42	45	WDWDL

14pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Hannover

D1-1VfL BochumMay 92.

D3-3Preußen MünsterMay 32.

W3-1Karlsruher SCApr 252.

D1-1SC Paderborn 07Apr 182.

W2-0SV Darmstadt 98Apr 112.

D1-1SV ElversbergApr 52.

W2-0VfL OsnabrückMar 25FRI

W1-0Eintracht BraunschweigMar 202.

D2-2FC Schalke 04Mar 152.

L1-2SpVgg Greuther FürthMar 82.

W1-0Arminia BielefeldFeb 282.

D0-0Dynamo DresdenFeb 222.

W3-2Hertha BSCFeb 142.

W3-1Holstein KielFeb 82.

W2-11. FC MagdeburgJan 302.

Nuremberg

W3-0FC Schalke 04May 92.

D1-1SpVgg Greuther FürthMay 32.

W1-01. FC MagdeburgApr 262.

D1-1Arminia BielefeldApr 182.

L0-2Dynamo DresdenApr 112.

D1-1Eintracht BraunschweigApr 52.

W3-01. FC KaiserslauternMar 212.

W3-2Holstein KielMar 142.

L0-1Fortuna DüsseldorfMar 72.

L1-2Hertha BSCMar 12.

D1-1VfL BochumFeb 202.

W5-1Karlsruher SCFeb 132.

L1-2SC Paderborn 07Feb 72.

D1-1Preußen MünsterJan 302.

L0-2SV Darmstadt 98Jan 232.

Squad & Injuries

Hannover

31 available

Attackers10

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Nuremberg

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders7

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Hannover to score

Hannover over 5.5

Hannover or Draw

Hannover

Over 0.5

Yes

Over 9.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals5 of 5 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Hannover

Nuremberg

Squad & Injuries

Hannover

Nuremberg