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Predictions graded

Greuther Furth3Fortuna Dusseldorf0

HT 3–0Sun 17 May 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions2–625%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 34%–66%ShotsShots 14–12On targetOn target 7–1CornersCorners 2–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 18:27 · Europe/Bucharest

A final-day relegation battle between Greuther Furth and Fortuna Dusseldorf is set to be a tense, low-scoring affair, with the last five H2H meetings all decided by a single goal.

The best betting value lies in over 4.5 cards (60% model probability vs. 44.4% implied) and under 2.5 goals (55% vs. 41.7%), while the first-half draw at 2.38 also offers an edge given both teams' cautious starts.

Context

Furth led 1-0 but conceded twice after Hertha's red card on 32 minutes.
- Welt reported fan anger and abuse directed at the players after the match.
- Captain Branimir Hrgota is leaving after seven years, adding to the emotional backdrop.
Away record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 11 losses.
- Away goals per game: 0.69, the lowest in the 2. Bundesliga.
- Lost 5 of their last 7 away matches, including a 3-0 defeat at Kaiserslautern.
Scorelines: 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-0.
- Three of the five were won by the away team.
- No meeting in this run produced more than three total goals.
Vogel replaced Thomas Kleine after a 3-0 home loss to Bochum.
- Furth had 13 points from 14 matches at the time of the change.
- Under Vogel, Furth have won 5, drawn 5, and lost 8 in the league.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
High-stakes final-day relegation battle combined with historically tight H2H margins makes a draw the most probable outcome, as both teams may prioritize avoiding defeat.
- Last 5 H2H all decided by 1 goal, 3 of 5 won by away team, indicating tight contests.
- Greuther Furth home record: 5W-5D-6L, Fortuna away record: 4W-1D-11L, both vulnerable.
- Final-day relegation pressure on both sides, likely to produce cautious, tense match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fortuna's dreadful away record (11 losses in 16) and Greuther Furth's home resilience in a must-win survival match make the home side avoiding defeat highly likely.
- Greuther Furth home form: 5W-5D-6L, losing only 6 of 16 home games.
- Fortuna away form: 4W-1D-11L, worst away record in league, only 4 away wins.
- H2H at Greuther Furth: last 2 home games vs Fortuna were 1-0 win and 1-2 loss, both tight.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGreuther Furth or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
High probability of a level first half given both teams' tendency to start cautiously and the even split in half-time leads across their seasons.
- Greuther Furth: led at half-time in 27% of matches, trailed in 27%.
- Fortuna: led at half-time in 27%, trailed in 33%.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws at half-time, 2 away leads.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Greuther Furth's desperation and home advantage may lead to a stronger second-half performance, but low confidence due to their overall poor form.
- Greuther Furth home record: 5 wins, often coming from behind or late goals.
- Fortuna away second-half fragility: conceded 24 away goals, many in second half.
- Motivation: Greuther Furth must win to have survival chance, likely to push late.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableGreuther FurthEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A full-time draw is plausible given the stakes, but the HT/FT double is low probability due to the rarity of such outcomes in this fixture.
- Both teams draw-prone: Greuther Furth 7 draws, Fortuna 4 draws in 33 games.
- Last 5 H2H: no draw at full-time, but 3 draws at half-time.
- Final-day pressure often leads to stalemates when both teams fear losing.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have leaky defenses and consistent scoring records, and the H2H history shows frequent goals at both ends, supporting both teams to score in this high-pressure encounter.
- Greuther Furth: scored in 12 of last 15 matches, conceded in 12 of last 15.
- Fortuna: scored in 9 of last 15, conceded in 13 of last 15.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 3 of 5, all matches had at least one goal each side.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H tightness and Fortuna's poor away scoring output (0.69 goals/game) point to a low-scoring match, despite both teams' defensive frailties.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals, all decided by 1 goal.
- Greuther Furth home goals average: 1.44 per game, Fortuna away goals average: 0.69 per game.
- Final-day relegation decider often produces tense, low-scoring affairs.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average less than 1 goal in the first half, and the cautious nature of a relegation decider suggests a slow start with few early goals.
- Greuther Furth first half goals average: 0.7, first half conceded: 0.7.
- Fortuna first half goals average: 0.5, first half conceded: 0.7.
- Last 5 H2H: only 1 match had over 1.5 first half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 5 corners each, but the tense nature of the match may reduce attacking flow, making over 9.5 corners a borderline call.
- Greuther Furth average corners per game: 5.1, Fortuna average: 5.1.
- Combined average corners: 10.2, but recent matches show variability.
- Last 5 H2H corner counts: 7, 9, 8, 6, 11 (average 8.2).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
High tension and Fortuna's disciplinary record (2.4 yellows/game) suggest a card-heavy match, likely exceeding 4.5 total cards.
- Greuther Furth average yellow cards: 1.5, Fortuna average: 2.4 per game.
- Combined average cards: 3.9, but final-day relegation matches often see increased discipline issues.
- Fortuna has 0.8 red cards per game average, indicating aggressive play.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L2-1Fortuna DüsseldorfvSpVgg Greuther FürthDec 20, 20252.

W1-2Fortuna DüsseldorfvSpVgg Greuther FürthFeb 28, 20252.

W1-2SpVgg Greuther FürthvFortuna DüsseldorfSep 27, 20242.

L1-0Fortuna DusseldorfvSpVgg Greuther FurthApr 20, 20242.

L1-0SpVgg Greuther FurthvFortuna DusseldorfNov 12, 20232.

Fortuna Dusseldorf: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

2. Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
17	Greuther Furth Relegation - 3. Liga	33	9	7	17	46-68	34	LDLWD
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	33	11	4	18	33-50	37	WLWLL

3pt gap between teamsGreuther Furth in relegation zone

Recent Form

Greuther Furth

L1-2Hertha BSCMay 102.

D1-11. FC NürnbergMay 32.

L1-2VfL BochumApr 262.

W3-2SV Darmstadt 98Apr 192.

D0-0Preußen MünsterApr 112.

L0-2SC Paderborn 07Apr 52.

L0-1Red Bull SalzburgMar 26FRI

L1-3Karlsruher SCMar 202.

W2-0SV ElversbergMar 132.

W2-1Hannover 96Mar 82.

D1-1FC Schalke 04Feb 282.

W2-1Arminia BielefeldFeb 202.

L0-11. FC KaiserslauternFeb 142.

L4-51. FC MagdeburgFeb 62.

W2-1Holstein KielJan 312.

Fortuna Dusseldorf

W3-1SV ElversbergMay 102.

L0-1FC Schalke 04May 22.

W3-1Dynamo DresdenApr 242.

L0-21. FC MagdeburgApr 182.

L1-2Holstein KielApr 102.

L0-31. FC KaiserslauternApr 42.

L2-5Hertha BSCMar 222.

L0-1Eintracht BraunschweigMar 142.

W1-01. FC NürnbergMar 72.

W2-1VfL BochumFeb 272.

L1-2SV Darmstadt 98Feb 212.

D0-0Preußen MünsterFeb 132.

D1-1Karlsruher SCFeb 82.

W2-1SC Paderborn 07Feb 12.

L1-2Hannover 96Jan 242.

Squad & Injuries

Greuther Furth

34 available

Attackers10

Midfielders11

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Fortuna Dusseldorf

32 available

Attackers8

Midfielders9

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

Over 4.5

Greuther Furth or Draw

Yes

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals0 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Greuther Furth

Fortuna Dusseldorf

Squad & Injuries

Greuther Furth

Fortuna Dusseldorf