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Predictions graded

Deportivo La Coruna2FC Andorra1

HT 0–1Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 34%–66%ShotsShots 15–11On targetOn target 8–4CornersCorners 2–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 17:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Deportivo are favorites at home but offer no value at 1.57 given their draw tendency and Andorra's strong away form.

The only market with a slight edge is Both Teams to Score Yes at 1.70, where our 60% estimate edges the implied 58.8%. Avoid backing the home win or over 2.5 goals, as the odds overstate the probabilities.

Context

Andorra won 4 of their last 5 away matches: 4-0 at Leganes, 1-0 at Cadiz, 4-0 at Cultural Leonesa, and 4-1 at Cordoba.
- In those 5 away games, Andorra scored 14 goals and conceded only 1, keeping 4 clean sheets.
- Andorra's overall away record this season is 8W-4D-7L, with 30 goals scored and 26 conceded in 19 matches.
Deportivo's home record: 10W-5D-4L, with draws against Leganes (2-2), Malaga (1-1), and others.
- In their last 4 home matches, Deportivo drew twice (vs Leganes and Malaga) and won twice.
- Deportivo have scored only 1.47 goals per home game, suggesting they sometimes struggle to break down opponents.
AS reported on 12 May that Petxarroman's loan does not include a clause blocking him from facing Deportivo.
- Petxarroman played 90 minutes and provided an assist in Andorra's 3-1 win over Las Palmas on 10 May.
- He is a regular starter for Andorra and will be motivated against his parent club.
Andorra beat Deportivo 1-0 on 20 December 2025, with Deportivo failing to score.
- Cadena SER reported that Pique confronted referee Eder Mallo Fernandez in the tunnel over a disallowed Andorra goal.
- The incident may add extra edge to this match, though it is unlikely to directly affect on-field performance.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Deportivo La Coruna or Draw

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

Deportivo have lost only 4 of 19 home matches this season, while Andorra have lost 7 of 19 away, making a home win or draw highly probable.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Deportivo La Coruna

1.56fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 64%

0.0ppshort

Deportivo's strong home form and promotion motivation give them a slight edge, but the odds imply a much higher probability than our estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Andorra's high-scoring away form (1.58 scored, 1.37 conceded) and Deportivo's attacking intent make Over 2.5 plausible.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Andorra's strong first-half scoring record (1.0 goals/game) and Deportivo's tendency to concede early suggest a first-half goal.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Deportivo's strong home form and promotion playoff motivation give them a slight edge, but Andorra's excellent recent away form (4 wins in last 5) makes this a close contest.
- Deportivo La Coruna home record: 10W-5D-4L, 28 goals for, 19 against in 19 matches.
- FC Andorra away record: 8W-4D-7L, 30 goals for, 26 against in 19 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna last 5 matches: 3W-2D-0L, 8 goals for, 4 against.
- FC Andorra last 5 matches: 4W-0D-1L, 11 goals for, 2 against.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDeportivo La CorunaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Deportivo's solid home form and low loss rate make them unlikely to lose; combined with their promotion stakes, a home win or draw is highly probable.
- Deportivo La Coruna home record: 10W-5D-4L, only 4 losses in 19 home matches.
- FC Andorra away record: 8W-4D-7L, 7 losses in 19 away matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna last 15 matches: 9W-4D-2L, only 2 losses overall.
- H2H: Only meeting this season was a 1-0 away loss for Deportivo, but they are stronger at home.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDeportivo La Coruna or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of drawing at half-time, and the match is expected to be tight early, so a first-half draw is a reasonable outcome.
- Deportivo La Coruna last 15 matches: led at half-time in 20% of matches, trailed in 27%, drawn in 53%.
- FC Andorra last 15 matches: led at half-time in 33% of matches, trailed in 13%, drawn in 53%.
- H2H: The only meeting was 0-0 at half-time.
- Deportivo home matches: 7 of 19 (37%) were level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time is common for both teams, and Deportivo's home strength could see them push for a second-half winner, though it's a low-probability specific outcome.
- Deportivo La Coruna last 15 matches: drawn at half-time in 53%, won full-time in 60%.
- FC Andorra last 15 matches: drawn at half-time in 53%, won full-time in 60%.
- Deportivo home matches: 7 of 19 were level at half-time, and they won 10 of 19 overall.
- H2H: The only meeting was 0-0 at half-time, with Andorra winning 1-0.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Deportivo La CorunaEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andorra's high-scoring trend and Deportivo's need to win for promotion playoffs suggest an open game, pushing the total over 2.5 goals.
- FC Andorra last 15 matches: 2.3 goals scored per game, 1.1 conceded; 9 of 15 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Deportivo La Coruna last 15 matches: 1.5 goals scored per game, 1.0 conceded; 6 of 15 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- FC Andorra away matches this season: 30 goals in 19 games (1.58 per game), 26 conceded (1.37 per game).
- Deportivo home matches this season: 28 goals in 19 games (1.47 per game), 19 conceded (1.0 per game).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a consistent record of both scoring and conceding, and with Deportivo pushing for goals at home, both teams are likely to find the net.
- FC Andorra last 15 matches: both teams scored in 8 of 15 (53%).
- Deportivo La Coruna last 15 matches: both teams scored in 9 of 15 (60%).
- FC Andorra away matches: both teams scored in 11 of 19 (58%).
- Deportivo home matches: both teams scored in 10 of 19 (53%).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see first-half goals, with Andorra particularly strong in early scoring, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- FC Andorra last 15 matches: 1.0 first-half goals scored per game, 0.6 conceded; 11 of 15 had over 0.5 first-half goals.
- Deportivo La Coruna last 15 matches: 0.6 first-half goals scored per game, 0.5 conceded; 9 of 15 had over 0.5 first-half goals.
- FC Andorra away matches: first-half goals in 14 of 19 matches (74%).
- Deportivo home matches: first-half goals in 12 of 19 matches (63%).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams likely to push for a result in the second half, especially Deportivo needing a win, the second half should see more goals.
- FC Andorra last 15 matches: average second-half goals total 2.0 (1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded).
- Deportivo La Coruna last 15 matches: average second-half goals total 1.5 (0.9 scored, 0.6 conceded).
- FC Andorra away matches: 11 of 19 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Deportivo home matches: 9 of 19 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently generate around 10 corners per match, and with an open game expected, over 9.5 corners is likely.
- Deportivo La Coruna last 15 matches: average 6.1 corners for, opponent corners 4.5, total 10.6 per match.
- FC Andorra last 15 matches: average 5.6 corners for, opponent corners 4.3, total 9.9 per match.
- Deportivo home matches: average 6.3 corners for, opponent 4.2, total 10.5.
- FC Andorra away matches: average 5.4 corners for, opponent 4.8, total 10.2.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 5 cards per match, and with the competitive stakes, a physical game with over 4.5 cards is expected.
- Deportivo La Coruna last 15 matches: average 2.9 yellow cards, opponent 2.3, total 5.2 cards per match.
- FC Andorra last 15 matches: average 2.7 yellow cards, opponent 2.7, total 5.4 cards per match.
- Deportivo home matches: average 2.8 yellow cards, opponent 2.4, total 5.2.
- FC Andorra away matches: average 2.6 yellow cards, opponent 2.8, total 5.4.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 1W

L1-0FC AndorravDeportivo La CorunaDec 20, 2025SEG

1 goals/game avg

League Table

Segunda División 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Deportivo La Coruna Promotion Playoffs	39	20	11	8	60-41	71	WWDWD
10	FC Andorra	39	16	10	13	61-49	58	WLWWW

13pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Deportivo La Coruna

W1-0CadizMay 8SEG

W2-1LeganesMay 1SEG

D1-1BurgosApr 25SEG

W3-1MirandesApr 20SEG

D1-1HuescaApr 12SEG

D1-1MalagaApr 4SEG

W2-0CordobaMar 31SEG

D1-1Sporting GijonMar 28SEG

W2-1ZaragozaMar 21SEG

W2-1AD Ceuta FCMar 14SEG

L0-2Granada CFMar 8SEG

W3-2Real Sociedad IIMar 1SEG

W1-0EibarFeb 21SEG

L0-2CastellónFeb 15SEG

W2-1AlbaceteFeb 8SEG

FC Andorra

W5-1Las PalmasMay 10SEG

L0-1AlbaceteMay 1SEG

W4-0LeganesApr 26SEG

W1-0ValladolidApr 19SEG

W1-0CadizApr 12SEG

W6-2Racing SantanderApr 5SEG

D3-3MalagaApr 1SEG

W4-0Cultural LeonesaMar 29SEG

L0-1EibarMar 21SEG

D1-1Granada CFMar 15SEG

W1-0Sporting GijonMar 8SEG

W4-1CordobaMar 2SEG

W2-1ZaragozaFeb 22SEG

L1-2Barcelona BFeb 17FRI

L2-3AlmeriaFeb 13SEG

Squad & Injuries

Deportivo La Coruna

30 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

FC Andorra

26 available

Attackers10

Midfielders6

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3