Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Cagliari2Torino1

HT 2–1Sun 17 May 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 13–10On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 5–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 22:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect a slow start with a likely drawn first half, then goals after the break as both defenses leak.

The best value is on over 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and over 4.5 cards, while avoiding short odds on double chance and first-half under 1.5 goals.

Context

Torino’s away record: 4W-5D-9L, 16 scored, 32 conceded.
- They have conceded in 15 of 18 away games (83%).
- Last 5 away matches: conceded 2, 0, 2, 3, 2 goals.
- Cagliari have scored in 72% of home games this season.
Last 4 H2H results: 1-2, 2-0, 3-2, 1-2 (all winners, 3 over 2.5).
- Both teams scored in 3 of those 4 meetings.
- The broader H2H includes 11 draws in 35 matches, but recent trend is decisive.
- All last 5 H2H first halves ended level, but second halves opened up.
Cagliari average 2.2 yellows and 0.7 reds per game.
- Torino average 2.1 yellows and 1.0 reds per game.
- Torino’s last 5 away games: 1, 3, 1, 0, 5 yellows (high variance but frequent cards).
- Cagliari’s last 5 home games: 1, 0, 3, 2, 1 yellows, plus 1 red.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have mediocre form and similar goal differences; Cagliari's slight home edge is offset by Torino's poor away record, making a draw the most balanced outcome.
- Cagliari home record: 6W-4D-8L, 20 goals scored, 22 conceded in 18 home matches this season.
- Torino away record: 4W-5D-9L, 16 goals scored, 32 conceded in 18 away matches this season.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 wins each, 1 draw; last 4 H2H all had a winner, but overall H2H history has 11 draws in 35 meetings.
- Cagliari last 5 home matches: W-D-L-W-L (inconsistent), Torino last 5 away: D-L-D-L-L (poor away form).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cagliari are hard to beat at home, and Torino struggle on the road, so the home side avoiding defeat is the safer bet.
- Cagliari home points per game: 1.22 (22 points from 18 home games).
- Torino away points per game: 0.94 (17 points from 18 away games).
- Cagliari have lost only 8 of 18 home games; Torino have won only 4 of 18 away games.
- Last 5 H2H at Cagliari: Cagliari won 2, Torino won 2, draw 1.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCagliari or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The pattern of drawn first halves is strong in both recent form and H2H, making a stalemate at the break highly likely.
- Cagliari half-time results in last 15: 5 wins, 7 draws, 3 losses.
- Torino half-time results in last 15: 3 wins, 7 draws, 5 losses.
- H2H last 5 first-half results: D, D, D, D, D (all draws at half-time).
- Both teams average only 0.4 first-half goals scored.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cagliari's home urgency and Torino's poor away second-half record give the hosts a slight edge, but the evidence is not strong.
- Cagliari have won the second half in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Torino have lost the second half in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Cagliari's home goal difference is -2, but they tend to push late for results.
- Torino's away goal difference is -16, indicating second-half collapses.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableCagliariEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a half-time draw is very likely, a full-time draw is less certain, but the combination is a plausible low-probability outcome.
- Cagliari have drawn 4 of 18 home games; Torino have drawn 5 of 18 away games.
- Last 5 H2H: 1 draw overall, but all 5 were draws at half-time.
- Both teams have a high draw rate in first halves (around 47% each in last 15).
- Full-time draws are less common but possible given balanced stats.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H trend strongly favors goals, and both defenses are leaky, especially Torino away from home.
- Last 4 H2H meetings: 3 finished with over 2.5 goals (scores: 1-2, 2-0, 3-2, 1-2).
- Cagliari home matches average 2.33 total goals (20 scored, 22 conceded in 18 games).
- Torino away matches average 2.67 total goals (16 scored, 32 conceded in 18 games).
- Both teams have negative goal differences and concede regularly: Cagliari 1.4 goals conceded per game overall, Torino 1.4 as well.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have defensive vulnerabilities and have shown they can score against each other in recent meetings.
- Cagliari have scored in 13 of 18 home games this season (72%).
- Torino have conceded in 15 of 18 away games this season (83%).
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 H2H meetings.
- Cagliari average 1.11 goals scored at home, Torino average 0.89 goals scored away but concede 1.78 per away game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and a H2H history of tight opening periods.
- Cagliari average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Torino average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded over last 15 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H, first-half goals: 0, 1, 2, 0, 0 (only one match had over 1.5 first-half goals).
- Cagliari led at half-time in only 20% of recent matches, Torino in 20%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams likely to open up after the break and defensive fatigue setting in, the second half should see more goals.
- Cagliari's last 5 home matches: second-half goals in 4 of 5 (2, 0, 3, 1, 1).
- Torino's last 5 away matches: second-half goals in 4 of 5 (2, 1, 2, 3, 1).
- Overall, Cagliari concede 1.4 goals per game, with many coming after half-time.
- Torino away matches average 2.67 total goals, suggesting second-half action.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The corner totals are borderline, but Cagliari's home matches tend to have slightly higher corner counts, making over 8.5 a coin-flip.
- Cagliari average 4.3 corners per game overall, but at home they've had matches with 8, 2, 4, 9, 6 corners in last 5 home games (avg 5.8).
- Torino average 3.5 corners per game overall, but away they've had 2, 1, 5, 2, 6 in last 5 away (avg 3.2).
- Combined average corners in Cagliari home games: ~9.0 based on recent data.
- H2H corner counts not available, but both teams' styles can produce corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have poor disciplinary records, especially with red cards, making a card-heavy match likely.
- Cagliari average 2.2 yellow cards per game overall, with 0.7 red cards (high discipline issues).
- Torino average 2.1 yellow cards per game, with 1.0 red cards (even higher).
- Combined average cards per game: 4.3 yellows + 1.7 reds = high card frequency.
- Last 5 H2H: cards data not available, but both teams are among the higher card recipients in the league.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W1-2TorinovCagliariDec 27, 2025SA

L2-0TorinovCagliariJan 24, 2025SA

W3-2CagliarivTorinoOct 20, 2024SA

L1-2CagliarivTorinoJan 26, 2024SA

D0-0TorinovCagliariAug 21, 2023SA

Torino: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	Cagliari	36	9	10	17	36-51	37	LDWLW
12	Torino	36	12	8	16	41-59	44	WLDDW

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Cagliari

L0-2UdineseMay 9SA

D0-0BolognaMay 3SA

W3-2AtalantaApr 27SA

L0-3InterApr 17SA

W1-0CremoneseApr 11SA

L1-2SassuoloApr 4SA

L0-1NapoliMar 20SA

L1-3PisaMar 15SA

L1-2ComoMar 7SA

D1-1ParmaFeb 27SA

D0-0LazioFeb 21SA

L0-2LecceFeb 16SA

L0-2AS RomaFeb 9SA

W4-0Hellas VeronaJan 31SA

W2-1FiorentinaJan 24SA

Torino

W2-1SassuoloMay 8SA

L0-2UdineseMay 2SA

D2-2InterApr 26SA

D0-0CremoneseApr 19SA

W2-1Hellas VeronaApr 11SA

W1-0PisaApr 5SA

L2-3AC MilanMar 21SA

W4-1ParmaMar 13SA

L1-2NapoliMar 6SA

W2-0LazioMar 1SA

L0-3GenoaFeb 22SA

L1-2BolognaFeb 15SA

D2-2FiorentinaFeb 7SA

L1-2InterFeb 4CI

W1-0LecceFeb 1SA

Squad & Injuries

Cagliari

32 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Torino

1 out

Attackers9

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Zannetos Savva — Jumpers knee

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Yes

Over 2.5

Over 1.5

Over 4.5

Cagliari or Draw

Under 1.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Cagliari

Torino

Squad & Injuries

Cagliari

Torino