Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Bragantino2Vitoria0

HT 1–0Sun 17 May 2026, 21:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 50%–50%ShotsShots 22–7On targetOn target 4–2CornersCorners 7–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 May 2026, 21:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Bragantino are clear favorites based on a dominant home H2H (4-0 last time) and Vitoria's awful away form (0 wins, 17 conceded).

Expect a low-scoring affair with a strong chance of at least one clean sheet. However, betting value is limited—the best edges are on Both Teams to Score 'No' and Under 2.5 goals, but margins are slim.

Context

Vitoria away record in Serie A: 0W-3D-4L, goals 6:17.
- They have lost four of their last five away league matches.
- Bragantino won the last home H2H 4-0 in December 2025.
Davi Gomes (midfielder) out with a knee injury.
- Matheus Fernandes (midfielder) inactive for this fixture.
- Fabricio (goalkeeper) out with an ankle injury.
CNN Brasil reported on 24 Sep 2025 that Jair Ventura was Vitoria's fourth coach of 2025.
- Rodrigo Chagas lasted only 20 days before being replaced.
- Managerial instability can disrupt tactical preparation, especially for away games.
Last four H2H results: 4-0, 1-0, 1-0, 2-1.
- Three of those four were won to nil.
- All four had first halves with under 1.5 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bragantino or Draw

1.21fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 83%

0.0ppshort

Vitoria's inability to win away (0W-3D-4L) and Bragantino's dominant home H2H (4-0, 2-1) make a home win or draw highly probable.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Bragantino

1.72fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 58%

0.0ppshort

Bragantino's dominant recent home H2H and Vitoria's terrible away form give the hosts a clear edge, though Bragantino's own inconsistency tempers confidence.

Cards Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 4.5

1.36fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average over 2.3 yellows per game, but recent H2H was one-sided and not card-heavy; model estimate of 60% is below the 73.5% implied by odds.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bragantino's dominant recent home H2H and Vitoria's terrible away form (0 wins, 17 conceded in 7) give the hosts a clear edge, though Bragantino's own inconsistency tempers confidence.
- Bragantino won the latest home H2H 4-0 (Dec 2025) and 3 of last 4 H2H meetings were won to nil.
- Vitoria away record this season: 0W-3D-4L, goals 6:17, conceding heavily on the road.
- Bragantino home record: 3W-1D-3L, goals 11:8, decent but inconsistent; last 5 overall form LWLWL.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBragantinoEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vitoria's inability to win on the road, combined with Bragantino's solid home H2H history, makes a home win or draw highly probable.
- Vitoria has not won away this season (0W-3D-4L) and has lost 4 of last 5 away league matches.
- Bragantino has lost only 3 of 7 home games, with 4 results being win or draw.
- H2H at Bragantino: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses in last 2 home meetings (4-0, 2-1).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBragantino or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have mixed first-half performances, and the H2H pattern of narrow margins suggests a drawn first half is the most probable outcome.
- Bragantino led at half-time in only 13% of matches, trailed in 27%; Vitoria led in 47%, trailed in 20%.
- Last 4 H2H half-time results: 1 draw, 3 home leads (but 2 were 1-0, tight).
- Bragantino's last 5 home first halves: 2 draws, 2 losses, 1 win; Vitoria's last 5 away first halves: 2 draws, 2 losses, 1 win.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
If the first half is drawn, Bragantino's home advantage and Vitoria's second-half defensive fragility could lead to a home win, but the scenario is speculative.
- Bragantino has come from behind to win only once in last 15; Vitoria has lost 4 away games after being level or behind at HT.
- H2H: In the 2-1 Bragantino win, it was 1-1 at HT; in the 4-0, it was 1-0 at HT.
- Vitoria's away second-half record: conceded 10 of 17 away goals in second half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/BragantinoEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern of low-scoring, one-sided results and Vitoria's away scoring struggles suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- 3 of last 4 H2H meetings ended with a clean sheet for one side (4-0, 1-0, 1-0).
- Vitoria failed to score in 3 of 7 away league games; Bragantino kept 2 clean sheets in last 5 home games.
- Bragantino averages 1.3 goals conceded overall, Vitoria 1.3 goals conceded, but away Vitoria scores only 0.86 per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H tightness and both teams' recent home/away trends point toward a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 goals likely.
- Last 4 H2H matches: 4-0, 1-0, 1-0, 2-1 — all under 2.5 except the 4-0 which is exactly 4 goals but still low-scoring pattern.
- Vitoria away matches average 3.29 total goals, but 4 of 7 had under 2.5 goals; Bragantino home matches average 2.71 total goals.
- Bragantino's last 5 home games: 3 under 2.5 goals; Vitoria's last 5 away: 3 under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vitoria's away scoring woes and Bragantino's occasional home clean sheets give a moderate chance, but Bragantino's defense is not consistently solid.
- Bragantino kept a clean sheet in the last home H2H (4-0) and in 2 of last 5 home games overall.
- Vitoria failed to score in 3 of 7 away league games this season.
- Bragantino's defensive record at home: 8 conceded in 7 games, but 2 clean sheets.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonVitoria not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, and H2H history shows tight first halves, making under 1.5 first-half goals a strong likelihood.
- Bragantino averages 0.9 first-half goals, concedes 0.9; Vitoria averages 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded in first halves.
- Last 4 H2H first-half scores: 1-0, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0 — all under 1.5 goals.
- In Bragantino's last 5 home games, 4 had under 1.5 first-half goals; Vitoria's last 5 away: 3 under 1.5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bragantino's high corner count at home could push the total over 8.5, but Vitoria's low corner generation makes this a borderline call.
- Bragantino averages 5.6 corners per game, concedes 5.1 opponent corners; total average ~10.7.
- Vitoria averages only 2.6 corners per game but concedes 5.3 opponent corners; total average ~7.9.
- Last H2H at Bragantino: corners were 4-2 (total 6), but Bragantino's recent home games average 6.4 corners for, 4.7 against.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' disciplinary records and foul counts suggest a match with several cards, making over 4.5 cards likely.
- Bragantino averages 2.6 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards per game; Vitoria averages 2.3 yellows, 0.3 reds.
- Combined average cards per game: ~5.2, with recent matches showing multiple bookings.
- Last H2H: no card data, but both teams have aggressive foul averages (Bragantino 13.5, Vitoria 11.3).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 4W

L4-0RB BragantinovVitoriaDec 3, 2025SA

L1-0VitoriavRB BragantinoJul 20, 2025SA

L1-0VitoriavRB BragantinoOct 19, 2024SA

L2-1RB BragantinovVitoriaJun 23, 2024SA

W2-0BragantinovVitoriaSep 29, 2019SER

Vitoria: 3 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Bragantino Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	15	6	2	7	17-18	20	LWLWL
10	Vitoria Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	14	5	4	5	18-20	19	DWLDW

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Bragantino

L1-2MirassolMay 13COP

L0-2SantosMay 10SA

W6-0BloomingMay 8CON

W2-1Chapecoense-scMay 3SA

L0-1River PlateMay 1CON

L0-1PalmeirasApr 26SA

D1-1MirassolApr 23COP

W4-2RemoApr 19SA

W3-2BloomingApr 17CON

L1-2CruzeiroApr 12SA

L0-1Carabobo FCApr 10CON

W1-0MirassolApr 5SA

W3-0FlamengoApr 3SA

L1-2BotafogoMar 21SA

L0-2BahiaMar 18SA

Vitoria

W2-0FlamengoMay 15COP

D2-2FluminenseMay 9SA

W1-0CearaMay 7COP

W4-1CoritibaMay 2SA

D2-2ConfiançaApr 30COP

L1-3Atletico ParanaenseApr 26SA

L1-2FlamengoApr 23COP

D0-0CorinthiansApr 18SA

W3-1PiauíApr 16COP

W2-0Sao PauloApr 11SA

W4-1JuazeirenseApr 8COP

D1-1Chapecoense-scApr 5SA

L0-3CruzeiroApr 1SA

W4-2CRBMar 28COP

L1-2Botafogo PBMar 25COP

Squad & Injuries

Bragantino

12 out

Attackers5

Midfielders4/16

×#27

×#35

×#27

×#35

Defenders4/12

×#3

×#52

×#3

×#52

Goalkeeper2/4

×#37

#27 Davi Gomes — Knee Injury

#3 Eduardo Santos — Hamstring Injury

#37 Fabricio — Ankle Injury

#35 Matheus Fernandes — Inactive

G. Rodriguez — Knee Injury

#52 R. Tavares — Inactive

#27 Davi Gomes — Knee Injury

#3 Eduardo Santos — Hamstring Injury

#37 Fabricio — Ankle Injury

#35 Matheus Fernandes — Inactive

G. Rodriguez — Knee Injury

#52 R. Tavares — Inactive

Vitoria

22 out

Attackers2/13

×#79

Midfielders4/14

×#21

×#44

×#21

×#44

Defenders10/21

×#4

×#43

×#98

×#13

×#5

×#4

×#43

×#98

×#13

×#5

Goalkeeper6

#4 Camutanga — Broken Leg

Claudinho — Muscle Injury

#21 Dudu — Back Injury

#43 Edu — Achilles Tendon Injury

#98 Matheusinho — Injury

H. Pedro — Hand Injury

#13 Ramon — Yellow Cards

R. Ramos — Knee Injury

#79 Renato Kayzer — Yellow Cards

#5 Riccieli — Calf Injury

#44 Baralhas — Injury

#4 Camutanga — Broken Leg

Claudinho — Muscle Injury

#21 Dudu — Back Injury

#43 Edu — Achilles Tendon Injury

#98 Matheusinho — Injury

H. Pedro — Hand Injury

#13 Ramon — Yellow Cards

R. Ramos — Knee Injury

#79 Renato Kayzer — Yellow Cards

#5 Riccieli — Calf Injury

#44 Baralhas — Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Under 2.5

Bragantino or Draw

Bragantino

Under 1.5

Over 4.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Bragantino

Vitoria

Squad & Injuries

Bragantino

Vitoria