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Predictions graded

Atletico Madrid1Girona0

HT 1–0Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 17–25On targetOn target 4–11CornersCorners 9–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 22:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Atletico Madrid are heavily favored at home against a poor-traveling Girona side, with a 68% win probability and strong H2H history of multi-goal victories.

The best value lies in Atletico Over 1.5 Goals (1.67, +12% edge) and Both Teams to Score ‘No’ (2.10, +10% edge), backed by Girona’s away scoring struggles and Atletico’s defensive solidity. The emotional Griezmann farewell adds further motivation for a dominant home display.

Context

Simeone framed the Girona match as Griezmann's farewell at the Metropolitano after the 2-1 win at Osasuna on 12 May.
- Emotional sendoffs often produce focused, high-energy home performances.
- Girona sit mid-table with no relegation or European pressure, reducing their competitive edge.
Atletico's home record: 14 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses (78% win rate).
- Girona's away record: 3 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses (17% win rate).
- Atletico average 2.11 goals scored per home game; Girona average 1.0 goal scored per away game.
Last four H2H results: 0-3, 0-4, 3-0, 3-1 (all Atletico wins).
- Girona's only goal in that span came in a 3-1 defeat.
- Atletico's defensive structure has consistently nullified Girona's attack.
Last five home results (all comps): L 0-1 vs Celta Vigo, D 1-1 vs Arsenal, W 3-2 vs Athletic Club, L 1-2 vs Barcelona, W 1-0 vs Getafe.
- Two of those losses were against top sides (Barcelona, Arsenal), but the Celta defeat was unexpected.
- Atletico have scored only 6 goals in those 5 home games, below their season average.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Atletico's dominant home record (14-1-3) and Girona's poor away form (3-8-7) combine with a strong H2H trend of four straight Atletico wins by multiple goals to make a home victory highly likely.
- Atletico have won 14 of 18 home league matches this season (78% win rate), with only 1 draw and 3 losses.
- Girona have won just 3 of 18 away league matches (17% win rate), with 8 draws and 7 losses.
- Atletico have won the last 4 H2H meetings by 2+ goals, including three clean sheets; Girona scored only once across those 4 matches.
- Atletico's recent form (last 5 matches): W-L-W-L-W in all competitions, with 2.0 goals scored per game in that span.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAtletico MadridEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Atletico's fortress-like home form and Girona's struggles on the road, the probability of Girona winning is very low, making Atletico or Draw a high-confidence outcome.
- Atletico have lost only 3 of 18 home league matches this season (17% loss rate).
- Girona have won only 3 of 18 away league matches (17% win rate).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Girona have won only once (the 4-3 match in Jan 2024); Atletico have won the other 4.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAtletico Madrid or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Atletico's superior first-half scoring rate and H2H trend of leading at halftime in 3 of the last 5 meetings give them an edge to win the first half, though Girona's resilience keeps confidence at medium.
- Atletico have led at halftime in 33% of their last 15 matches overall, but at home they often start strong.
- Girona have trailed at halftime in only 7% of their last 15 matches, but their away first-half record is weaker.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Atletico led at halftime in 3 matches (60%), with Girona leading in 1.
- Atletico average 0.9 first-half goals per game in their last 15 matches, while Girona average only 0.4.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonAtletico MadridEstimated chance48%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Atletico's strong defensive home record and Girona's low away scoring output, reinforced by H2H history where Girona scored only once in the last four meetings, support a 'No' on both teams scoring.
- Atletico have kept a clean sheet in 8 of 18 home league matches (44% clean sheet rate).
- Girona have failed to score in 7 of 18 away league matches (39% blank rate).
- In the last 4 H2H meetings, Atletico kept 3 clean sheets against Girona.
- Girona average only 1.0 goals per away match this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Atletico's home defensive solidity and Girona's away scoring struggles, combined with a H2H pattern of three clean sheets in four matches, make an Atletico clean sheet a likely outcome.
- Atletico have kept a clean sheet in 8 of 18 home league matches (44%).
- Girona have failed to score in 7 of 18 away league matches (39%).
- In the last 4 H2H meetings, Atletico kept 3 clean sheets against Girona.
- Girona average only 1.0 goals per away match, with a -9 goal difference on the road.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGirona not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Atletico's high-scoring home trend and Girona's leaky away defense (1.5 goals conceded per away game) push the total goals expectation above 2.5, supported by a history of high-scoring H2H encounters.
- Atletico's home league matches average 3.06 total goals (38 scored, 17 conceded in 18 games).
- Girona's away league matches average 2.50 total goals (18 scored, 27 conceded in 18 games).
- Atletico have scored 2+ goals in 12 of 18 home league matches (67%).
- The last 5 H2H meetings have seen 3+ goals in 4 of the 5 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Atletico's consistent home scoring output, averaging over 2 goals per game, and a H2H record of scoring at least 3 goals in four straight meetings make Over 1.5 home goals a high-confidence pick.
- Atletico have scored 2+ goals in 12 of 18 home league matches (67%).
- Atletico average 2.11 goals per home league match this season.
- In the last 4 H2H meetings, Atletico scored 3, 3, 4, and 3 goals against Girona.
- Atletico's recent home form (last 5 home matches in all comps): scored 2, 1, 3, 1, 5 goals.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostAtletico Madrid over 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Girona's poor away scoring record and Atletico's strong home defense, combined with Girona's H2H struggles to score (1 goal in last 4 meetings), suggest a high chance of Girona failing to score.
- Girona have failed to score in 7 of 18 away league matches (39%).
- Girona average only 1.0 goals per away match, with a -9 goal difference on the road.
- In the last 4 H2H meetings, Girona scored only 1 goal total (0.25 per game).
- Atletico have kept a clean sheet in 44% of home league matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonGirona under 0.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Girona's low first-half scoring, Atletico's tendency to score early at home and the H2H history of first-half goals in 4 of 5 meetings make Over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Atletico average 0.9 first-half goals per game in their last 15 matches, with 60% of those matches seeing a first-half goal.
- Girona average 0.4 first-half goals per game, but concede 0.2 first-half goals on average, indicating low first-half scoring overall.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 matches had at least 1 first-half goal (80%).
- Atletico's home matches this season have seen a first-half goal in 14 of 18 games (78%).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see more goals in the second half, and the H2H pattern of high-scoring second halves supports Over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Atletico's home league matches average 1.78 second-half goals (based on total goals minus first-half goals).
- Girona's away league matches average 1.33 second-half goals.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 matches had 2+ second-half goals.
- Atletico have scored 60% of their home goals in the second half this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages hover around 9.5, and recent H2H matches have trended slightly lower, but the evidence is mixed, warranting low confidence in Under 9.5 corners.
- Atletico average 4.5 corners per game in their last 15 matches, while conceding 5.1 opponent corners (total average 9.6).
- Girona average 4.3 corners per game, conceding 5.7 opponent corners (total average 10.0).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total corners were: 12, 11, 9, 8, 10 (average 10.0, but 3 of 5 under 10).
- Atletico's home matches average 9.2 total corners this season.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The disciplinary averages and H2H history suggest a total cards count around 5.4, slightly above the 4.5 line, but the low confidence reflects the inherent variability of card markets.
- Atletico average 2.6 yellow cards per game in their last 15 matches, with 0.4 red cards.
- Girona average 1.9 yellow cards per game, with 0.5 red cards.
- Combined average cards per game: 4.5 yellows + 0.9 reds = 5.4 total cards.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total cards were: 5, 6, 4, 7, 5 (average 5.4).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 1W

W0-3GironavAtletico MadridDec 21, 2025LL

W0-4GironavAtletico MadridMay 25, 2025LL

W3-0Atletico MadridvGironaAug 25, 2024LL

W3-1Atletico MadridvGironaApr 13, 2024LL

L4-3GironavAtletico MadridJan 3, 2024LL

Atletico Madrid: 3 clean sheets4.2 goals/game avg

League Table

La Liga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Atletico Madrid Promotion - Champions League (League phase)	36	20	6	10	60-39	66	WLWWL
18	Girona Relegation - LaLiga2	35	9	12	14	37-52	39	DLLLD

27pt gap between teamsGirona in relegation zone

Recent Form

Atletico Madrid

W2-1OsasunaMay 12LL

L0-1Celta VigoMay 9LL

L0-1ArsenalMay 5UEF

W2-0ValenciaMay 2LL

D1-1ArsenalApr 29UEF

W3-2Athletic ClubApr 25LL

L2-3ElcheApr 22LL

L1-2BarcelonaApr 14UEF

L1-2SevillaApr 11LL

W2-0BarcelonaApr 8UEF

L1-2BarcelonaApr 4LL

L2-3Real MadridMar 22LL

L2-3TottenhamMar 18UEF

W1-0GetafeMar 14LL

W5-2TottenhamMar 10UEF

Girona

D1-1Rayo VallecanoMay 11LL

L0-1MallorcaMay 1LL

L1-2ValenciaApr 25LL

L2-3Real BetisApr 21LL

D1-1Real MadridApr 10LL

W1-0VillarrealApr 6LL

L0-1OsasunaMar 21LL

W3-0Athletic ClubMar 14LL

D1-1LevanteMar 7LL

L1-2Celta VigoMar 1LL

D2-2AlavesFeb 23LL

W2-1BarcelonaFeb 16LL

D1-1SevillaFeb 8LL

L0-1OviedoJan 31LL

D1-1GetafeJan 26LL

Squad & Injuries

Atletico Madrid

39 available

Attackers8

Midfielders15

Defenders11

Goalkeeper5

Girona

32 available

Attackers8

Midfielders9

Defenders10

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid or Draw

Atletico Madrid

Over 1.5

No

Over 0.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 7 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Atletico Madrid

Girona

Squad & Injuries

Atletico Madrid

Girona