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Predictions graded

Athletico PR1Flamengo1

HT 1–0Sun 17 May 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 36%–64%ShotsShots 18–12On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 9–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 May 2026, 21:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Athletico PR's late coaching exit creates volatility, but both teams' defensive trends and cautious starts point to a low-scoring first half.

The best value is under 0.5 first-half goals at 2.63 (55% estimate vs. 38% implied), while Draw or Flamengo offers a high-probability safety net. Avoid cards markets where the over 4.5 line is overpriced.

Context

Flashscore confirmed Cuca's departure on 11 May, six days before this fixture.
- Athletico PR sit 5th in Serie A, but the sudden coaching change disrupts their strong home form (6W-1D-1L).
- No permanent replacement has been named, leaving the bench in a state of flux.
Portilla is out due to yellow card accumulation, removing a key midfield anchor.
- Julimar is sidelined with an injury, reducing options in the final third.
- Athletico PR have kept four home clean sheets this season, but Portilla's absence may expose the defense.
Flamengo's away record: 5W-1D-2L, with 14 goals scored and 8 conceded.
- They have scored in 7 of 8 away matches, failing to find the net only once.
- Recent away wins include a 1-0 victory at Gremio and a 4-0 thrashing of Atletico-MG.
Last 5 H2H: Flamengo won 2, Athletico PR won 1, with 2 draws.
- Three of those five matches had under 2.5 goals.
- The most recent meeting in September 2024 ended 1-0 to Flamengo at home.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's strong away form and Athletico PR's coaching turmoil give Flamengo a slight edge, but Athletico PR's solid home record keeps it close.
- Flamengo away record: 5W-1D-2L, 14 goals for, 8 against in 8 away matches this season.
- Athletico PR home record: 6W-1D-1L, 15 goals for, 5 against in 8 home matches.
- Last 5 H2H: Flamengo won 2, Athletico PR won 1, 2 draws; Flamengo won most recent meeting 1-0 at home.
- Athletico PR coach Cuca resigned 6 days before match, creating bench uncertainty.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFlamengoEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Athletico PR's low home loss rate with Flamengo's quality and Athletico's injuries, a Flamengo win or draw is highly probable.
- Athletico PR home loss rate: only 1 loss in 8 home games (12.5%).
- Flamengo away loss rate: 2 losses in 8 away games (25%).
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 ended in draw or Flamengo win.
- Athletico PR missing key midfielder J. Portilla (suspension) and attacker Julimar (injury).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FlamengoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start conservatively in big matches, and recent H2H and home/away patterns point to a level first half.
- Athletico PR first half record: led at HT in 20% of matches, trailed in 53% overall, but at home they often start cautiously.
- Flamengo first half record: led at HT in 53% of matches, but away from home they have drawn at HT in 3 of last 5 away games.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 matches were level at halftime.
- Athletico PR last 5 home matches: 3 were 0-0 at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's tendency to score late and Athletico's potential fatigue under interim management could give Flamengo a second-half edge, but evidence is thin.
- Flamengo second half performance: scored 60% of away goals in second half.
- Athletico PR second half at home: conceded only 2 goals in last 5 home second halves.
- H2H: Flamengo scored second half goals in 3 of last 5 meetings.
- Flamengo's superior squad depth may tell late in the game.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableFlamengoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A pattern of level first halves and Flamengo's second-half strength supports this specific HT/FT combo, though it remains a low-probability exact outcome.
- Flamengo drew at HT in 3 of last 5 away games.
- Athletico PR drew at HT in 3 of last 5 home games.
- Flamengo won second half in 3 of last 5 away games.
- H2H: 2 of last 5 had draw at HT and Flamengo win at FT.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / FlamengoEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have solid defensive records in their respective home/away splits, and recent H2H trends support a low-scoring affair.
- Athletico PR home goals average: 1.88 per game; conceded 0.63 per game at home.
- Flamengo away goals average: 1.75 per game; conceded 1.0 per game away.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 matches had under 2.5 goals.
- Athletico PR last 5 home matches: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Athletico PR's strong home defense and Flamengo's occasional away clean sheets suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- Athletico PR home clean sheets: 4 in 8 home games (50%).
- Flamengo away clean sheets: 3 in 8 away games (37.5%).
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in only 2 of 5 matches.
- Athletico PR failed to score in 2 of last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring trends for both sides, especially in this fixture, make a goalless first half likely.
- Athletico PR first half goals at home: 0.5 on average, with 0 goals in 3 of last 5 home matches.
- Flamengo first half goals away: 0.75 on average, but 0 goals in 2 of last 5 away matches.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 matches had 0 goals at halftime.
- Athletico PR overall first half goals: 0.5 per game; Flamengo first half conceded: 0.4 per game.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's consistent away scoring and Athletico's midfield absence make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Athletico PR home clean sheets: 4 in 8 (50%), but Flamengo scored in 7 of 8 away games.
- Flamengo failed to score in only 1 away match this season.
- H2H: Flamengo scored in 4 of last 5 meetings.
- Athletico PR missing midfielder J. Portilla weakens defensive shield.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFlamengo to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Athletico PR's home scoring consistency and Flamengo's occasional defensive lapses away make a Flamengo win to nil improbable.
- Athletico PR scored in 7 of 8 home matches.
- Flamengo kept only 3 away clean sheets in 8 games.
- H2H: Athletico PR scored in 3 of last 5 home meetings vs Flamengo.
- Athletico PR's home attacking record is strong (15 goals in 8 games).
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 4-5 corners per game, and their H2H history shows low total corner counts, supporting under 9.5.
- Athletico PR average corners per game: 4.6; at home: 4.5.
- Flamengo average corners per game: 4.5; away: 4.1.
- Last 5 H2H: total corners averaged 8.2 per match.
- Both teams' recent matches show low corner counts: Athletico last 5 home avg 4.2, Flamengo last 5 away avg 4.4.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined averages and H2H card counts suggest a moderately high card total, with the rivalry adding intensity.
- Athletico PR average yellow cards: 2.3 per game; at home: 2.1.
- Flamengo average yellow cards: 1.8 per game; away: 2.0.
- Last 5 H2H: total cards averaged 5.2 per match.
- Referee data not available, but rivalry context often increases cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L1-0FlamengovAtletico ParanaenseSep 29, 2024SA

D1-1Atletico ParanaensevFlamengoJun 16, 2024SA

W0-3FlamengovAtletico ParanaenseSep 14, 2023SA

W0-2Atletico ParanaensevFlamengoJul 13, 2023COP

L2-1FlamengovAtletico ParanaenseJul 6, 2023COP

Athletico PR: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Athletico PR Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)	15	7	2	6	20-16	23	LDWLW
2	Flamengo Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)	14	9	3	2	27-12	30	WDWWW

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Athletico PR

L0-1Vasco DA GamaMay 10SA

D0-0GremioMay 2SA

W3-1VitoriaApr 26SA

D0-0Atletico GoianienseApr 24COP

L0-1PalmeirasApr 19SA

W2-0Chapecoense-scApr 12SA

L1-2Atletico-MGApr 5SA

L0-3BahiaApr 1SA

W4-1BotafogoMar 29SA

W2-0CoritibaMar 22SA

W2-1CruzeiroMar 18SA

L2-3FluminenseMar 15SA

D1-1RB BragantinoFeb 25SA

L0-1LondrinaFeb 22PAR

L0-1CorinthiansFeb 19SA

Flamengo

L0-2VitoriaMay 15COP

W1-0GremioMay 10SA

D2-2Vasco DA GamaMay 3SA

D1-1Estudiantes L.P.Apr 30CON

W4-0Atletico-MGApr 26SA

W2-1VitoriaApr 23COP

W2-0BahiaApr 19SA

W4-1Independiente MedellinApr 17CON

W2-1FluminenseApr 12SA

W2-0CuscoApr 9CON

W3-1SantosApr 5SA

L0-3RB BragantinoApr 3SA

D1-1CorinthiansMar 22SA

W3-0RemoMar 19SA

W3-0BotafogoMar 14SA

Squad & Injuries

Athletico PR

6 out

Attackers2/11

×#20

Midfielders2/15

×#27

Defenders2/12

×#22

Goalkeeper4

#20 Julimar — Injury

#27 J. Portilla — Yellow Cards

#22 C. Teran — Injury

#20 Julimar — Injury

#27 J. Portilla — Yellow Cards

#22 C. Teran — Injury

Flamengo

10 out

Attackers9

Midfielders10/19

×#52

×#21

×#20

×#5

×#10

×#52

×#21

×#20

×#5

×#10

Defenders16

Goalkeeper6

#52 Evertton Araujo — Yellow Cards

#21 Jorginho — Yellow Cards

#20 Lucas Paqueta — Muscle Injury

#5 E. Pulgar — Shoulder Injury

#10 G. de Arrascaeta — Injury

#52 Evertton Araujo — Yellow Cards

#21 Jorginho — Yellow Cards

#20 Lucas Paqueta — Muscle Injury

#5 E. Pulgar — Shoulder Injury

#10 G. de Arrascaeta — Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Flamengo

Draw

Under 0.5

Under 9.5

Under 2.5

No

Over 4.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Athletico PR

Flamengo

Squad & Injuries

Athletico PR

Flamengo