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Predictions graded

Werder Bremen0Borussia Dortmund2

HT 0–0Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 9–17On targetOn target 3–9CornersCorners 4–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 May 2026, 23:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Dortmund's six-match unbeaten H2H run and Werder's scoring woes make an away win likely, but the best value is on Werder Bremen team total under 1.5 goals (+5.1% edge) and first-half under 1.5 goals (+7.2% edge).

Off-field turmoil at Dortmund adds risk to the outright win, while the over 2.5 goals market is overpriced given the fixture's low-scoring history.

Context

Kehl was removed on 22 March 2026 and his contract officially dissolved 4 days before this match.
- Bild reported farewell scenes for Kehl, Julian Brandt, Niklas Sule and Salih Ozcan at the last home game.
- Coach Niko Kovac publicly questioned the squad's quality three weeks ago, hinting at possible tension.
Werder's last five results: L-L-D-W-L, with the only win coming against Hamburg.
- They have lost 4 of their last 6 home matches, including a 3-1 defeat to Augsburg and 2-0 loss to Mainz.
- Werder average only 1.1 goals per game this season and have failed to score in 7 of 16 home matches.
Last six H2Hs: Dortmund 4W-2D, including a 3-0 win in January 2026.
- Werder failed to score in 4 of those 6 matches.
- In Werder's last 3 home league meetings with Dortmund, they scored only 1 total goal (0-0, 1-2, 0-2).
Dortmund's away record this season: 8W-5D-3L, second-best in Bundesliga.
- They lost 1-0 at Gladbach and 2-1 at Hoffenheim in their last four away trips.
- Dortmund average 1.75 goals scored away from home, but conceded in 3 of their last 5 away games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dortmund's strong H2H dominance and superior form, combined with Werder's poor recent results, make an away win the most likely outcome.
- Dortmund are unbeaten in the last 6 Bundesliga H2Hs (4W-2D), including a 3-0 win in the most recent meeting on 2026-01-13.
- Werder Bremen have lost 4 of their last 5 matches (LLDWL) and have only 1 win in their last 6 home games.
- Dortmund have the 2nd-best away record in the league (8W-5D-3L) and average 1.75 goals scored away from home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBorussia DortmundEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Dortmund's historical edge and Werder's struggles, a double chance covering Dortmund or draw offers high safety with strong statistical backing.
- Dortmund have not lost to Werder in the last 6 league meetings (4W-2D).
- Werder Bremen have won only 5 of 16 home matches this season and are 15th in the table.
- Dortmund have lost only 3 of 16 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Borussia DortmundEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dortmund's tendency to start strong and Werder's frequent first-half deficits give Dortmund an edge to lead at the break, though the H2H shows mixed halftime results.
- Dortmund lead at halftime in 53% of their matches this season, compared to Werder's 13%.
- Werder Bremen have trailed at halftime in 53% of their matches.
- In the last 5 H2Hs, Dortmund led at halftime in 2 matches, with 2 draws and 1 Werder lead.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostBorussia DortmundEstimated chance45%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dortmund's defensive control in this fixture, especially away to Werder, suggests a high chance of at least one team failing to score.
- Werder Bremen have failed to score in 4 of the last 6 H2Hs against Dortmund.
- In Werder's last 3 home league meetings with Dortmund, they scored only 1 total goal.
- Dortmund have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 7 away matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H trend toward low-scoring affairs and Werder's offensive struggles point to a match with fewer than three goals, though Dortmund's attacking quality tempers confidence.
- 4 of the last 6 H2Hs have seen under 2.5 goals.
- Werder Bremen average only 1.1 goals scored per game this season, and 1.19 at home.
- Dortmund's recent away form shows 3 of last 5 away games had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Werder's scoring difficulties at home and Dortmund's defensive record in this fixture give a moderate chance of an away clean sheet, though Dortmund's occasional defensive lapses lower confidence.
- Dortmund have kept clean sheets in 3 of the last 6 H2Hs against Werder.
- Werder Bremen have failed to score in 7 of their 16 home matches this season.
- Dortmund have 5 clean sheets in 16 away league games this season.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonWerder Bremen not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Werder's historical scoring struggles against Dortmund and their low home scoring average make it likely they will score fewer than 2 goals.
- Werder Bremen have scored only 1 goal in their last 3 home H2Hs against Dortmund.
- Werder average 1.19 goals per home game this season, with 7 home matches where they scored 0 or 1 goal.
- Dortmund concede only 1.13 goals per away game on average.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonWerder Bremen under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dortmund's consistent away scoring and Werder's leaky home defense support a prediction of at least 2 away goals.
- Dortmund average 1.75 goals scored per away game this season.
- Dortmund have scored at least 2 goals in 4 of their last 6 away matches across all competitions.
- Werder Bremen concede 1.81 goals per home game on average.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBorussia Dortmund over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring patterns and the H2H history suggest a low-scoring opening 45 minutes.
- Werder Bremen average only 0.3 first-half goals per game this season.
- Dortmund average 0.9 first-half goals per game, but 4 of their last 6 away games had 0 or 1 first-half goal.
- In the last 5 H2Hs, 3 matches had 0 or 1 goal in the first half.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see more goals in the second half, and the H2H pattern supports a more open second period.
- Werder Bremen concede 0.8 first-half goals but 1.5 total goals per game, indicating more goals conceded after halftime.
- Dortmund score 0.9 first-half goals but 2.0 total goals per game, showing a second-half scoring increase.
- In 3 of the last 5 H2Hs, the second half produced at least 2 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The season averages and recent H2H corner counts hover around the 9.5 line, making this a borderline call with low confidence.
- Werder Bremen average 4.9 corners per game, while Dortmund average 5.0.
- Combined, the teams average 9.9 corners per game this season.
- In the last 5 H2Hs, total corners were: 11, 10, 5, 7, 9 (average 8.4, but 3 of 5 had 9+).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dortmund's recent card accumulation and the competitive nature of this fixture push the expected total cards above 4.5.
- Werder Bremen average 2.0 yellow cards per game, Dortmund average 2.4.
- Combined, the teams average 4.4 cards per game, but Dortmund's recent matches have seen increased discipline issues (e.g., 5 yellows and 2 reds vs Atalanta).
- In the last 5 H2Hs, total cards were: 3, 4, 5, 6, 4 (average 4.4, with 3 of 5 over 4.5).
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

L3-0Borussia DortmundvWerder BremenJan 13, 2026BL

D2-2Borussia DortmundvWerder BremenJan 25, 2025BL

D0-0Werder BremenvBorussia DortmundAug 31, 2024BL

L1-2Werder BremenvBorussia DortmundMar 9, 2024BL

L1-0Borussia DortmundvWerder BremenOct 20, 2023BL

Borussia Dortmund unbeaten in 5 meetingsBorussia Dortmund: 3 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Werder Bremen	33	8	8	17	37-58	32	LLDWL
2	Borussia Dortmund Champions League	33	21	7	5	68-34	70	WLWLL

38pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Werder Bremen

L0-11899 HoffenheimMay 9BL

L1-3FC AugsburgMay 2BL

D1-1VfB StuttgartApr 26BL

W3-1Hamburger SVApr 18BL

L1-31. FC KölnApr 12BL

L1-2RB LeipzigApr 4BL

W1-0VfL WolfsburgMar 21BL

L0-2FSV Mainz 05Mar 15BL

W4-1Union BerlinMar 8BL

W2-01. FC HeidenheimFeb 28BL

L1-2FC St. PauliFeb 22BL

L0-3Bayern MünchenFeb 14BL

L0-1SC FreiburgFeb 7BL

D1-1Borussia MönchengladbachJan 31BL

L0-21899 HoffenheimJan 27BL

Borussia Dortmund

W3-2Eintracht FrankfurtMay 8BL

L0-1Borussia MönchengladbachMay 3BL

W4-0SC FreiburgApr 26BL

L1-21899 HoffenheimApr 18BL

L0-1Bayer LeverkusenApr 11BL

W2-0VfB StuttgartApr 4BL

W3-2Hamburger SVMar 21BL

W2-0FC AugsburgMar 14BL

W2-11. FC KölnMar 7BL

L2-3Bayern MünchenFeb 28BL

L1-4AtalantaFeb 25UEF

D2-2RB LeipzigFeb 21BL

W2-0AtalantaFeb 17UEF

W4-0FSV Mainz 05Feb 13BL

W2-1VfL WolfsburgFeb 7BL

Squad & Injuries

Werder Bremen

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Borussia Dortmund

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Borussia Dortmund

Draw or Borussia Dortmund

No

Under 1.5

Under 1.5

Over 4.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals6 of 7 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Werder Bremen

Borussia Dortmund

Squad & Injuries

Werder Bremen

Borussia Dortmund