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Predictions graded

St Pauli1Wolfsburg3

HT 0–1Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–633%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 11–19On targetOn target 2–10CornersCorners 8–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 May 2026, 23:14 · Europe/Bucharest

A relegation final-day stalemate is likely, with Wolfsburg's unbeaten H2H record and draw-friendly incentive making Under 2.5 goals (2.15) and first-half Under 0.5 goals (3.20) the top value plays.

The draw at 3.50 also offers a solid edge, while corners Under 9.5 (2.10) is a strong secondary market.

Context

Last five Bundesliga H2Hs: 1 Wolfsburg win, 4 draws.
- St Pauli failed to score more than once in four of those five games.
- The most recent meeting in January 2026 ended 2-1 to Wolfsburg.
St Pauli average 0.7 goals per game over the last 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in the first half in four of their last five games.
- Home record: 16 goals in 16 matches, the lowest in the league.
Bauer and Christiansen were dismissed on 8 March 2026 after a 2-1 home defeat to Hamburger SV.
- Hecking returned later in March and has since focused on defensive resilience.
- Under Hecking, Wolfsburg have drawn three of their last five away matches.
St Pauli and Wolfsburg are tied on 26 points in the relegation zone.
- Wolfsburg hold a better goal difference, so a draw likely keeps them above St Pauli.
- This incentive structure encourages Wolfsburg to play conservatively and avoid defeat.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The H2H psychology strongly favors a draw, with 4 of the last 5 Bundesliga meetings ending level, and the final-day context where a draw likely keeps Wolfsburg above St Pauli in the relegation playoff spot.
- H2H last 5 Bundesliga meetings: 4 draws, 1 Wolfsburg win; St Pauli have not beaten Wolfsburg in this period.
- St Pauli home record this season: 4W-5D-7L, with 16 goals scored and 28 conceded in 16 home matches.
- Wolfsburg away record: 4W-4D-8L, 21 goals scored, 36 conceded in 16 away matches.
- Both teams are level on 26 points in the relegation zone; a draw may suit Wolfsburg's better goal difference on the final day.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the H2H dominance and the final-day stakes where a draw benefits Wolfsburg, the visitors are unlikely to lose, making Draw or Wolfsburg a solid outcome.
- Wolfsburg are unbeaten in the last 5 Bundesliga H2Hs (1W, 4D).
- St Pauli have won only 4 of 16 home matches this season.
- Wolfsburg have lost 8 of 16 away matches, but have drawn 4.
- Final-day motivation: Wolfsburg can secure the relegation playoff spot with a draw, reducing the need to chase a win.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or WolfsburgEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of halftime draws in H2H and both teams' low first-half scoring rates make a draw at the break the most probable outcome.
- St Pauli's half-time results in last 15: 4 wins, 4 draws, 7 losses; but in last 5: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses.
- Wolfsburg's half-time results in last 15: 4 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses; away half-time results: 2 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses in last 8 away.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at halftime, 1 Wolfsburg lead, 1 St Pauli lead.
- Both teams have led at halftime in only 27% of their matches this season.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second-half outcomes are mixed for both sides, and with the match likely to be tight, a drawn second half is a reasonable but low-confidence prediction.
- St Pauli's second-half record in last 15: 3 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses.
- Wolfsburg's second-half record in last 15: 4 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses.
- H2H last 5: second-half results were 2 draws, 2 Wolfsburg wins, 1 St Pauli win.
- Both teams have similar second-half performance metrics, with no clear edge.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a full-time draw is plausible, the specific combination of a draw at both halftime and fulltime is less common, but supported by the H2H pattern and the match context.
- H2H last 5: 2 matches ended in draws, both were 1-1, with one being 0-0 at halftime and the other 1-1 at halftime.
- St Pauli have drawn 8 of 33 matches this season; Wolfsburg have drawn 8 of 33.
- The final-day context where a draw suits Wolfsburg could lead to a cautious, low-event match.
- Both teams have low scoring rates, increasing the chance of a stalemate.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring outputs, especially St Pauli, and the H2H history shows tight, low-scoring affairs, making Under 2.5 goals likely.
- St Pauli average 0.7 goals per match over the last 15, with only 3.2 shots on target per game.
- Wolfsburg average 1.0 goals per match over the last 15, but have scored 0 or 1 goal in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had under 2.5 goals (1-1, 0-0, 1-1).
- St Pauli home matches: 16 goals in 16 games (1.0 per game); Wolfsburg away: 21 goals in 16 games (1.3 per game).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
St Pauli's attacking struggles (lowest goals in the league) combined with Wolfsburg's occasional clean sheets on the road suggest at least one team may fail to score, though the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- St Pauli have failed to score in 5 of their last 15 matches, including 3 of the last 5.
- Wolfsburg have failed to score in 4 of their last 15, including 2 of the last 5 away.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 of 5, but the most recent meeting (Jan 2026) saw Wolfsburg win 2-1 with St Pauli scoring only once.
- St Pauli average 0.7 goals per game; Wolfsburg concede 2.0 per game but St Pauli's attack is the weakest in the league (28 goals in 33 games).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with St Pauli particularly goal-shy in the first half, and the H2H pattern of goalless first halves supports a low-scoring opening period.
- St Pauli average 0.3 first-half goals per game over the last 15, with 0 first-half goals in 4 of the last 5 matches.
- Wolfsburg average 0.5 first-half goals per game, but have scored 0 in the first half in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches were 0-0 at halftime.
- St Pauli have trailed at halftime in 47% of matches, but Wolfsburg have led at halftime in only 27%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given both teams' defensive vulnerabilities and the H2H trend of second-half goals, it is highly likely that at least one goal will be scored after the break.
- St Pauli concede 1.9 goals per game on average, with 1.2 goals conceded in the second half per match (calculated from total and first-half data).
- Wolfsburg concede 2.0 goals per game, with 1.3 goals conceded in the second half per match.
- H2H last 5: all 5 matches had at least one second-half goal.
- Both teams have negative goal differences and tend to concede more after halftime.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Wolfsburg's high opponent corner numbers away, St Pauli's low corner generation at home and the H2H trend of moderate corner counts suggest the total will stay under 9.5.
- St Pauli average 4.3 corners per game over the last 15, with opponent corners averaging 5.3.
- Wolfsburg average 4.7 corners per game, with opponent corners averaging 7.3.
- H2H last 5: total corners were 8, 14, 8, 10, 9 (average 9.8, but 3 of 5 were under 9.5).
- St Pauli's home matches average 8.8 total corners (4.3 + 4.5 opponent); Wolfsburg's away matches average 12.0 total corners (4.7 + 7.3 opponent).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The average card counts hover around the 3.5 line, and the tense final-day atmosphere could push the total slightly over, though the evidence is marginal.
- St Pauli average 1.6 yellow cards per game over the last 15, with opponents averaging 1.5.
- Wolfsburg average 2.0 yellow cards per game, with opponents averaging 1.5.
- Combined average cards per match: 3.6 for St Pauli games, 3.5 for Wolfsburg games.
- In a high-stakes relegation battle, discipline may be tested, but neither team has an extremely high card rate.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0W · 4D · 1W

L2-1VfL WolfsburgvFC St. PauliJan 14, 2026BL

D1-1VfL WolfsburgvFC St. PauliMar 8, 2025BL

D0-0FC St. PaulivVfL WolfsburgOct 26, 2024BL

D2-2VfL WolfsburgvFC St. PauliApr 16, 2011BL

D1-1FC St. PaulivVfL WolfsburgNov 21, 2010BL

Wolfsburg unbeaten in 5 meetings2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
18	St Pauli Relegation	33	6	8	19	28-57	26	LLLDL
16	Wolfsburg Relegation Playoffs	33	6	8	19	42-68	26	LDDWL

St Pauli in relegation zoneWolfsburg in relegation zone

Recent Form

St Pauli

L1-2RB LeipzigMay 9BL

L1-2FSV Mainz 05May 3BL

L0-21. FC HeidenheimApr 25BL

D1-11. FC KölnApr 17BL

L0-5Bayern MünchenApr 11BL

D1-1Union BerlinApr 5BL

L1-2SC FreiburgMar 22BL

L0-2Borussia MönchengladbachMar 13BL

D0-0Eintracht FrankfurtMar 8BL

W1-01899 HoffenheimFeb 28BL

W2-1Werder BremenFeb 22BL

L0-4Bayer LeverkusenFeb 14BL

W2-1VfB StuttgartFeb 7BL

L0-3Bayer LeverkusenFeb 3DFB

L1-2FC AugsburgJan 31BL

Wolfsburg

L0-1Bayern MünchenMay 9BL

D1-1SC FreiburgMay 3BL

D0-0Borussia MönchengladbachApr 25BL

W2-1Union BerlinApr 18BL

L1-2Eintracht FrankfurtApr 11BL

L3-6Bayer LeverkusenApr 4BL

L0-1Werder BremenMar 21BL

D1-11899 HoffenheimMar 14BL

L1-2Hamburger SVMar 7BL

L0-4VfB StuttgartMar 1BL

L2-3FC AugsburgFeb 21BL

D2-2RB LeipzigFeb 15BL

L1-2Borussia DortmundFeb 7BL

L0-11. FC KölnJan 30BL

L1-3FSV Mainz 05Jan 24BL

Squad & Injuries

St Pauli

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Wolfsburg

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 0.5

Under 9.5

Draw or Wolfsburg

Over 0.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

St Pauli

Wolfsburg

Squad & Injuries

St Pauli

Wolfsburg