One Knoxville SC00 – 1San Antonio FC1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

One Knoxville's strong home form and coaching stability under Fuller give them a slight edge, but San Antonio's higher division status and better defensive record balance the matchup, making a home win plausible but not dominant.

• One Knoxville SC won 8 of last 15 matches (53%), with 4 wins in last 5 home games.
• San Antonio FC won 6 of last 15 (40%), with only 1 win in last 5 away games.
• One Knoxville SC averages 1.5 goals scored vs 1.1 conceded; San Antonio FC averages 1.6 scored vs 0.9 conceded.
• Cross-division cup history: USL Championship sides won 64.2% vs League One in 2025 group stage.

BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOne Knoxville SCEstimated chance38%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

One Knoxville's low loss rate at home and San Antonio's tendency to draw away suggest a home win or draw is the most likely combined outcome.

• One Knoxville SC lost only 3 of last 15 matches (20%), with 2 losses at home.
• San Antonio FC drew 6 of last 15 (40%), including 3 of last 5 away games.
• One Knoxville SC drew 3 of last 15 (20%), all at home.
• Both teams have identical cup group records: 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses.

BetBugs · Double ChancelostOne Knoxville SC or DrawEstimated chance65%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both teams show a pattern of drawing at halftime, especially in recent home/away splits, though San Antonio's slightly higher lead rate introduces uncertainty.

• One Knoxville SC led at halftime in 5 of last 15 (33%), trailed in 2 (13%), drew in 8 (53%).
• San Antonio FC led at halftime in 7 of last 15 (47%), trailed in 2 (13%), drew in 6 (40%).
• One Knoxville's last 5 home matches: led at half in 2, drew in 3.
• San Antonio's last 5 away matches: led at half in 1, drew in 3, trailed in 1.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams have moderate scoring and conceding rates, with combined averages around 2.5 goals per match, making over 2.5 goals slightly more likely than under.

• One Knoxville SC's last 15 matches averaged 2.6 total goals (1.5 for, 1.1 against).
• San Antonio FC's last 15 matches averaged 2.5 total goals (1.6 for, 0.9 against).
• One Knoxville SC saw over 2.5 goals in 7 of last 15 (47%); San Antonio FC in 8 of last 15 (53%).
• Both teams scored in 8 of One Knoxville's last 15 (53%) and 7 of San Antonio's last 15 (47%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams have consistent scoring records and moderate defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting a slightly better than even chance both find the net.

• One Knoxville SC scored in 12 of last 15 matches (80%), conceding in 10 (67%).
• San Antonio FC scored in 11 of last 15 (73%), conceding in 9 (60%).
• Both teams scored in 8 of One Knoxville's last 15 (53%) and 7 of San Antonio's last 15 (47%).
• In cup matches, One Knoxville's only game saw both teams score (4-3); San Antonio's only game did not (0-0).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Second-half scoring rates are lower for both teams, making over 1.5 goals less likely, but the overall match context could push it near even odds.

• One Knoxville SC's second-half goal difference: scored 0.6, conceded 0.5 on average (estimated from totals minus first-half).
• San Antonio FC's second-half goal difference: scored 0.8, conceded 0.4 on average.
• Over 1.5 second-half goals occurred in 6 of One Knoxville's last 15 (40%) and 7 of San Antonio's last 15 (47%).
• Both teams tend to have tighter second halves, with 60% of matches seeing under 1.5 second-half goals.