New York Red Bulls11 – 1New York City1

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Combining NYCFC's strong H2H record and Red Bulls' poor home form, the away side is highly likely to avoid defeat.

• NYCFC are unbeaten in the last 3 league H2H meetings (2W 1D).
• Red Bulls have won only 3 of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
• NYCFC have lost only 2 of their last 5 away league matches.
• Red Bulls' recent form shows 2 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw in their last 5 matches.

BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or New York CityEstimated chance70%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The second half often evens out in derbies, and both teams have shown a tendency to share the spoils after the break.

• Red Bulls have drawn the second half in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
• NYCFC have drawn the second half in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, the second half was drawn twice.
• Both teams have similar second-half goal differences in recent form.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

A draw at halftime followed by a NYCFC win is a plausible scenario given the visitors' tendency to finish stronger.

• NYCFC have led at halftime in 53% of matches and won 38% overall.
• Red Bulls have drawn at halftime in 27% of home matches.
• In the last H2H meeting, NYCFC led at halftime and won.
• NYCFC have a better second-half record than Red Bulls in recent form.

BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/New York CityEstimated chance25%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams have consistent scoring records, and the H2H history suggests goals at both ends are likely.

• Both teams scored in 4 of Red Bulls' last 5 home matches.
• Both teams scored in 3 of NYCFC's last 5 away matches.
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in 3 matches.
• Red Bulls have scored in 4 of their last 5 home games, while NYCFC have scored in 4 of their last 5 away games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams tend to start quickly, and the derby intensity could lead to early goals, though the evidence is not overwhelming.

• Red Bulls average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded at home this season.
• NYCFC average 1.2 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded overall.
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 matches had over 1.5 first-half goals.
• Red Bulls' last 5 home matches saw 2.0 first-half goals on average.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Red Bulls' high corner count at home and the attacking nature of the derby should push total corners above 9.5.

• Red Bulls average 6.2 corners per game, while NYCFC average 3.7, but their matches average 9.9 total corners.
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, total corners were 5, 9, 11, 7, and 12 (average 8.8).
• Red Bulls' last 5 home matches averaged 10.2 total corners.
• NYCFC's last 5 away matches averaged 8.4 total corners.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The intense derby atmosphere and historical card counts suggest a higher-than-average card total.

• Red Bulls average 1.8 yellow cards per game, NYCFC average 1.6, totaling 3.4 on average.
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, total cards were 5, 4, 6, 3, and 5 (average 4.6).
• Derby matches often see increased disciplinary action.
• Red Bulls' last 5 home matches averaged 4.2 total cards, NYCFC's last 5 away matches averaged 4.8.